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Future Electoral Map problems for GOP

imabench
Posts: 21,206
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11/11/2016 6:49:58 PM
Posted: 3 weeks ago
Trump bragged about how many more voters were coming out in support of the GOP than ever before, but in the end he still got less votes than Romney did in 2012. There are also some states where Trump got a fewer % of overall votes than Romney did in 2012. Here is a list of states and how much better or worse Trump performed in terms of overall % of votes earned. States in bold highlight significant changes in electoral shifts (4% or more). Wikipedia pages for the 2012 and 2016 elections were used to pull up percentages for each state

Alabama = +2%
Alaska = -2%
Arizona = -4%
Arkansas = +/- 0%
California = -4%
Colorado = -2%
Connecticut = +1%
Delaware = +2%
Florida = +/- 0%
Georgia = -2%
Hawaii = +2%
Idaho = -5%
Illinois = -1%
Indiana = +3%
Iowa = +5%
Kansas = -2%
Kentucky = +2%
Louisiana = +1%
Maine = +5%
Maryland = -1%
Massachusetts = -4%
Michigan = +3%
Minnesota = +/- 0%
Mississippi = +3%
Missouri = +3%
Montana = +1%
Nebraska = +/- 0%
Nevada = +/- 0%
New Hampshire = +1%
New Jersey = -2%
New Mexico = -2%
New York = +2%
North Carolina = +/- 0%
North Dakota = +5%
Ohio = +5%
Oklahoma = -1%
Oregon = -3%
Pennsylvania = +2%
Rhode Island = +4%
South Carolina = +/- 0%
South Dakota = +4%
Tennessee = +2%
Texas = -5%
Utah = -26%
Vermont = +2%
Virginia = -3%
Washington = -3%
West Virginia = +6%
Wisconsin = +2%
Wyoming = -1%

In NON-battleground states, Trump increased GOP leanings in already safe GOP states (WV, ND, SD) but at the same time drove some GOP states closer towards the middle (TX, AZ, UT, ID)..... Trump also pushed some safe DEM states (Maine, Rhode Island) more towards the middle, but pushed safe DEM states further away (California, Massachusetts)

As for Battleground states, Trump substantially shifted Ohio and Iowa closer to the GOP, while all other battleground states stayed close to the center

Of all 50 states, the following are states where the margin of victory was lower compared to 2012, meaning these are states that are becoming battle ground states (<5%) or are drifting towards becoming battleground states. (<10%).

Battleground States:

Michigan = 0.27%
New Hampshire = 0.37%
Wisconsin = 0.93%
Pennsylvania = 1.24%
Florida = 1.27%
Minnesota = 1.46%
Colorado = 2.62%
Maine = 2.68% ====== New Battleground State =========
Nevada = 2.73%
North Carolina = 3.77%
Arizona = 4.40% ====== New Battleground State =========
Virginia = 4.81%

States drifting towards becoming Battleground states:

Georgia = 5.46%
New Mexico = 8.21%
Texas = 9.11%

States drifting away from becoming battleground states:

Ohio = 8.55%
Iowa = 9.50%

Trump pulled off wins in a lot of battleground states while holding many safe GOP states, even improving the GOP's position in Iowa and Ohio. However, he also shifted a lot of safe GOP states more towards the middle, and pushed some safe states even further out of reach.

States Trump pushed substantially further away from his party (4% or greater shift towards Dems)

Arizona (11 EV)
California (55 EV)
Georgia (16 EV)
Idaho (4 EV)
Massachusetts (11 EV)
Texas (38 EV)
Utah (6 EV)

States Trump pushed substantially further towards his party
Iowa (6 EV)
Maine (4 EV)
Ohio (18 EV)
North Dakota (3 EV)
South Dakota (2 EV)
Rhode Island (4 EV)
West Virginia (5 EV)

Overall Trump pulled a combined 42 Electoral Votes closer to his party, but pushed 141 Electoral Votes closer to the Democrats.

Looking only at states that used to be close battleground states + states that werent battleground states before but had margins of victory similar to battleground states, the imbalance shifts. Trump substantially pushed Ohio, Iowa, and Maine towards the GOP (28 EV total), but he also pushed New Mexico and Arizona more towards the Dems (16 EV total).

If you choose to count Texas as reachable for Dems, which went from being a 16% GOP win in 2012 to a 9% GOP win in 2016, then Trump pulled 28 EV closer to his party but pushed 54 EV further away.

=================================================================

Long Story Short: The GOP still faces long term problems with the electoral map despite winning this cycle..... A large number of battleground states still remain battleground states, and Trump pushed more safe GOP states towards becoming battleground sates then he pulled safe Dem states into becoming battleground states + pulled Battleground states towards the GOP.
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
vortex86
Posts: 559
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11/11/2016 7:08:50 PM
Posted: 3 weeks ago
At 11/11/2016 6:49:58 PM, imabench wrote:
Trump bragged about how many more voters were coming out in support of the GOP than ever before, but in the end he still got less votes than Romney did in 2012. There are also some states where Trump got a fewer % of overall votes than Romney did in 2012. Here is a list of states and how much better or worse Trump performed in terms of overall % of votes earned. States in bold highlight significant changes in electoral shifts (4% or more). Wikipedia pages for the 2012 and 2016 elections were used to pull up percentages for each state

As a whole he had more votes, so I'm not sure where you're getting that. Compare the 2012 Popular vote to 2016 (not even complete count yet). Trump already had more votes. When you have 17 candidates on the field (unprecedented), you have hold outs for said candidates, and you get less votes (#neverTrump)

Alabama = +2%
Alaska = -2%
Arizona = -4%
Arkansas = +/- 0%
California = -4%
Colorado = -2%
Connecticut = +1%
Delaware = +2%
Florida = +/- 0%
Georgia = -2%
Hawaii = +2%
Idaho = -5%
Illinois = -1%
Indiana = +3%
Iowa = +5%
Kansas = -2%
Kentucky = +2%
Louisiana = +1%
Maine = +5%
Maryland = -1%
Massachusetts = -4%
Michigan = +3%
Minnesota = +/- 0%
Mississippi = +3%
Missouri = +3%
Montana = +1%
Nebraska = +/- 0%
Nevada = +/- 0%
New Hampshire = +1%
New Jersey = -2%
New Mexico = -2%
New York = +2%
North Carolina = +/- 0%
North Dakota = +5%
Ohio = +5%
Oklahoma = -1%
Oregon = -3%
Pennsylvania = +2%
Rhode Island = +4%
South Carolina = +/- 0%
South Dakota = +4%
Tennessee = +2%
Texas = -5%
Utah = -26%
Vermont = +2%
Virginia = -3%
Washington = -3%
West Virginia = +6%
Wisconsin = +2%
Wyoming = -1%

In NON-battleground states, Trump increased GOP leanings in already safe GOP states (WV, ND, SD) but at the same time drove some GOP states closer towards the middle (TX, AZ, UT, ID)..... Trump also pushed some safe DEM states (Maine, Rhode Island) more towards the middle, but pushed safe DEM states further away (California, Massachusetts)

As for Battleground states, Trump substantially shifted Ohio and Iowa closer to the GOP, while all other battleground states stayed close to the center

Of all 50 states, the following are states where the margin of victory was lower compared to 2012, meaning these are states that are becoming battle ground states (<5%) or are drifting towards becoming battleground states. (<10%).

Battleground States:

Michigan = 0.27%
New Hampshire = 0.37%
Wisconsin = 0.93%
Pennsylvania = 1.24%
Florida = 1.27%
Minnesota = 1.46%
Colorado = 2.62%
Maine = 2.68% ====== New Battleground State =========
Nevada = 2.73%
North Carolina = 3.77%
Arizona = 4.40% ====== New Battleground State =========
Virginia = 4.81%

States drifting towards becoming Battleground states:

Georgia = 5.46%
New Mexico = 8.21%
Texas = 9.11%

States drifting away from becoming battleground states:

Ohio = 8.55%
Iowa = 9.50%

Trump pulled off wins in a lot of battleground states while holding many safe GOP states, even improving the GOP's position in Iowa and Ohio. However, he also shifted a lot of safe GOP states more towards the middle, and pushed some safe states even further out of reach.

States Trump pushed substantially further away from his party (4% or greater shift towards Dems)

Arizona (11 EV)
California (55 EV)
Georgia (16 EV)
Idaho (4 EV)
Massachusetts (11 EV)
Texas (38 EV)
Utah (6 EV)

States Trump pushed substantially further towards his party
Iowa (6 EV)
Maine (4 EV)
Ohio (18 EV)
North Dakota (3 EV)
South Dakota (2 EV)
Rhode Island (4 EV)
West Virginia (5 EV)

Overall Trump pulled a combined 42 Electoral Votes closer to his party, but pushed 141 Electoral Votes closer to the Democrats.

Looking only at states that used to be close battleground states + states that werent battleground states before but had margins of victory similar to battleground states, the imbalance shifts. Trump substantially pushed Ohio, Iowa, and Maine towards the GOP (28 EV total), but he also pushed New Mexico and Arizona more towards the Dems (16 EV total).

If you choose to count Texas as reachable for Dems, which went from being a 16% GOP win in 2012 to a 9% GOP win in 2016, then Trump pulled 28 EV closer to his party but pushed 54 EV further away.

=================================================================

Long Story Short: The GOP still faces long term problems with the electoral map despite winning this cycle..... A large number of battleground states still remain battleground states, and Trump pushed more safe GOP states towards becoming battleground sates then he pulled safe Dem states into becoming battleground states + pulled Battleground states towards the GOP.

Trump had the lowest approval of all time, I don't think this speaks to the GOP's future problems. This speaks to a $1billion campaign against him with the media in their back pockets. He won 30/50 states and turned solidly blue states against the Democratic. He did in fact turn people, he had a higher african american and hispanic vote than Romney, and turned high numbers of Democrats. The GOP can only benefit from his new electoral map.

You failed to compare Clinton's turnout to Obama's 2012 however. Using your same logic the Democrats have a rough go of the upcoming newly shifted electoral map. 1. if Trump does a good job 2. if anyone runs without the worst approval rating.

Ultimately, both parties need to make major changes. This can only be a good thing. You talked about small margins in all states. Once again I think this is a positive thing. Everyone will feel they have more representation and that their votes count for more.
imabench
Posts: 21,206
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11/12/2016 5:40:47 AM
Posted: 3 weeks ago
At 11/11/2016 7:08:50 PM, vortex86 wrote:
At 11/11/2016 6:49:58 PM, imabench wrote:
Trump bragged about how many more voters were coming out in support of the GOP than ever before, but in the end he still got less votes than Romney did in 2012. There are also some states where Trump got a fewer % of overall votes than Romney did in 2012. Here is a list of states and how much better or worse Trump performed in terms of overall % of votes earned. States in bold highlight significant changes in electoral shifts (4% or more). Wikipedia pages for the 2012 and 2016 elections were used to pull up percentages for each state

As a whole he had more votes, so I'm not sure where you're getting that. Compare the 2012 Popular vote to 2016 (not even complete count yet).

The 2016 vote is for the most part complete now. He got barely over 60 million votes (https://www.google.com...////////// ) Whereas Romney in 2012 got just shy of 61 million ( https://en.wikipedia.org... )

Trump already had more votes. When you have 17 candidates on the field (unprecedented), you have hold outs for said candidates, and you get less votes (#neverTrump)

Primary election votes dont carry over into the total of the general election vote..... Not sure why you merge both of those two

Long Story Short: The GOP still faces long term problems with the electoral map despite winning this cycle..... A large number of battleground states still remain battleground states, and Trump pushed more safe GOP states towards becoming battleground sates then he pulled safe Dem states into becoming battleground states + pulled Battleground states towards the GOP.

Trump had the lowest approval of all time, I don't think this speaks to the GOP's future problems. This speaks to a $1billion campaign against him with the media in their back pockets. He won 30/50 states and turned solidly blue states against the Democratic.

Actually he only turned Maine into a battleground state. All other states he pulled his way are either still battleground states and not solid blue in 2012, or are still blue enough that they are solid Democratic.

He did in fact turn people, he had a higher african american and hispanic vote than Romney.

Black people were still 85% against Trump and Latinos were 65% against Trump. He pulled some of them towards the GOP, but those groups still favor Dems between 2 to 1 and 4 to 1.

The GOP can only benefit from his new electoral map.

Math and numbers indicate otherwise. He pushed an overall smaller number of electoral votes towards the GOP than he pushed other Electoral Votes further away from the GOP

You failed to compare Clinton's turnout to Obama's 2012 however. Using your same logic the Democrats have a rough go of the upcoming newly shifted electoral map. 1. if Trump does a good job 2. if anyone runs without the worst approval rating.

Those are two big if's though, and its just as possible that Trump doesnt do a good job and that the Dems nominate someone who is at least 50% likable. Looking at the raw data that candidates will have to work with in the future, Democrats have a larger advantage

Ultimately, both parties need to make major changes. This can only be a good thing. You talked about small margins in all states. Once again I think this is a positive thing. Everyone will feel they have more representation and that their votes count for more.
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
Lynx_N
Posts: 275
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11/12/2016 7:14:42 AM
Posted: 3 weeks ago
At 11/12/2016 6:25:11 AM, triangle.128k wrote:
Wtf I hate the electoral college now.

For making Trump win the Presidency?
Bronto?
Congrats.

poet