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Pennsylvania

TN05
Posts: 4,492
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11/18/2016 2:53:15 AM
Posted: 2 weeks ago
Republicans had two ways they could win Pennsylvania. The first, and generally accepted as better option, was to eat into Democrat margins in Philly and the Philly suburbs. The second, and generally considered to be least likely, was to absolutely dominate the rural area and do better in the working-class Scranton area.

Republicans did both this year.

First, let's look at Obama's 2012 result. He won Pennsylvania 52.0% to 46.6%. His map:

https://upload.wikimedia.org...

Notice Obama did really well in Pittsburgh and Eerie county (western PA), and also won Centre County (in the center of the state, home of Penn state). He also crushed Philly and the suburbs, and dominated the Scranton metro area in northeastern PA. Everywhere else was deep, deep, deep red.

Pat Toomey won re-election 48.9% to 47.2%. His map looked like this:

https://upload.wikimedia.org...

Toomey didn't do quite as well in the rural, Romney areas, but more than made up for it by winning the Philly suburbs, winning the Scranton suburbs, winning Centre county and winning Erie county. So the first model - do better in Philly, win the suburbs - works!

Trump won Pennsylvania 48.8% to 47.7%. So in terms of raw vote, virtually identical. But the way he did it was very different.

https://upload.wikimedia.org...

Off the bat Trump sucked in the Philly suburbs, lost Centre county, and actually underperformed in Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) relative to Toomey. But he slaughtered everywhere else. Most important, he managed to over perform Toomey in the Scranton area - he did very well in Lackawana County (Scranton), losing only by 3.5 points whereas Toomey lost by 13, and Monroe County, losing by 0.3 while Toomey lost by 5. And he dominated the suburb counties of Scranton. So that second model, the difficult one? It's validated too.

Democrats need to be scared. If those two coalitions can be won by one Republican candidate, Democrats would be screwed. PA, with 20 electoral votes, more than makes up for losing Virginia, with 13 electoral votes. Of course, PA could just be the Republican version of North Carolina - a state they narrowly won and assumed would be in their column, but has voted increasingly Republican in recent years
thett3
Posts: 14,344
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11/18/2016 4:10:55 PM
Posted: 2 weeks ago
The conventional wisdom was that the GOP had maxed out the "Pennsatucky" area of the state, but Trump proved that completely false. Whatever you think of him, Trumps ability to drive turnout in rural and small town America was incredibly impressive.

Like we said in our PM, if there was a candidate that could activate both of the coalitions the GOP would be very difficult to beat. My hope is that Trump governs effectively and wins over skeptical suburban right-leaning independents that he hemorrhaged this cycle. Remember that Trump LOST the popular vote, and not by an incredibly small margin either. He just won in the right places. If he actually won the popular vote he would've certainly flipped Minnesota, New Hampshire and Maine and probably Nevada and Colorado as well. Perhaps even Virginia
DDO Vice President

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"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

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: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
inferno
Posts: 10,565
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11/18/2016 4:42:20 PM
Posted: 2 weeks ago
At 11/18/2016 2:53:15 AM, TN05 wrote:
Republicans had two ways they could win Pennsylvania. The first, and generally accepted as better option, was to eat into Democrat margins in Philly and the Philly suburbs. The second, and generally considered to be least likely, was to absolutely dominate the rural area and do better in the working-class Scranton area.

Republicans did both this year.

First, let's look at Obama's 2012 result. He won Pennsylvania 52.0% to 46.6%. His map:

https://upload.wikimedia.org...

Notice Obama did really well in Pittsburgh and Eerie county (western PA), and also won Centre County (in the center of the state, home of Penn state). He also crushed Philly and the suburbs, and dominated the Scranton metro area in northeastern PA. Everywhere else was deep, deep, deep red.

Pat Toomey won re-election 48.9% to 47.2%. His map looked like this:

https://upload.wikimedia.org...

Toomey didn't do quite as well in the rural, Romney areas, but more than made up for it by winning the Philly suburbs, winning the Scranton suburbs, winning Centre county and winning Erie county. So the first model - do better in Philly, win the suburbs - works!

Trump won Pennsylvania 48.8% to 47.7%. So in terms of raw vote, virtually identical. But the way he did it was very different.

https://upload.wikimedia.org...

Off the bat Trump sucked in the Philly suburbs, lost Centre county, and actually underperformed in Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) relative to Toomey. But he slaughtered everywhere else. Most important, he managed to over perform Toomey in the Scranton area - he did very well in Lackawana County (Scranton), losing only by 3.5 points whereas Toomey lost by 13, and Monroe County, losing by 0.3 while Toomey lost by 5. And he dominated the suburb counties of Scranton. So that second model, the difficult one? It's validated too.

Democrats need to be scared. If those two coalitions can be won by one Republican candidate, Democrats would be screwed. PA, with 20 electoral votes, more than makes up for losing Virginia, with 13 electoral votes. Of course, PA could just be the Republican version of North Carolina - a state they narrowly won and assumed would be in their column, but has voted increasingly Republican in recent years

Penn Stare won over Trump because they are part of the original rust belt states that have not fully recovered. And have gotten nothing but little to no progress in their economic situation.
inferno
Posts: 10,565
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11/18/2016 4:44:53 PM
Posted: 2 weeks ago
At 11/18/2016 4:10:55 PM, thett3 wrote:
The conventional wisdom was that the GOP had maxed out the "Pennsatucky" area of the state, but Trump proved that completely false. Whatever you think of him, Trumps ability to drive turnout in rural and small town America was incredibly impressive.

Like we said in our PM, if there was a candidate that could activate both of the coalitions the GOP would be very difficult to beat. My hope is that Trump governs effectively and wins over skeptical suburban right-leaning independents that he hemorrhaged this cycle. Remember that Trump LOST the popular vote, and not by an incredibly small margin either. He just won in the right places. If he actually won the popular vote he would've certainly flipped Minnesota, New Hampshire and Maine and probably Nevada and Colorado as well. Perhaps even Virginia

Trump has a huge responsibility to try and calm down the racist rhetoric that he caused during the campaign. Its not gonna be easy, which means he may have to fire some of the people he already wants on his staff. Sessions the Klansman from Alabama, is one of them.
Greyparrot
Posts: 14,268
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11/18/2016 4:58:37 PM
Posted: 2 weeks ago
At 11/18/2016 4:44:53 PM, inferno wrote:
At 11/18/2016 4:10:55 PM, thett3 wrote:
The conventional wisdom was that the GOP had maxed out the "Pennsatucky" area of the state, but Trump proved that completely false. Whatever you think of him, Trumps ability to drive turnout in rural and small town America was incredibly impressive.

Like we said in our PM, if there was a candidate that could activate both of the coalitions the GOP would be very difficult to beat. My hope is that Trump governs effectively and wins over skeptical suburban right-leaning independents that he hemorrhaged this cycle. Remember that Trump LOST the popular vote, and not by an incredibly small margin either. He just won in the right places. If he actually won the popular vote he would've certainly flipped Minnesota, New Hampshire and Maine and probably Nevada and Colorado as well. Perhaps even Virginia

Trump has a huge responsibility to try and calm down the racist rhetoric that he caused during the campaign. Its not gonna be easy, which means he may have to fire some of the people he already wants on his staff. Sessions the Klansman from Alabama, is one of them.

The country just doesn't care about racism anymore. That's ancient.
inferno
Posts: 10,565
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11/18/2016 5:06:38 PM
Posted: 2 weeks ago
At 11/18/2016 4:58:37 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
At 11/18/2016 4:44:53 PM, inferno wrote:
At 11/18/2016 4:10:55 PM, thett3 wrote:
The conventional wisdom was that the GOP had maxed out the "Pennsatucky" area of the state, but Trump proved that completely false. Whatever you think of him, Trumps ability to drive turnout in rural and small town America was incredibly impressive.

Like we said in our PM, if there was a candidate that could activate both of the coalitions the GOP would be very difficult to beat. My hope is that Trump governs effectively and wins over skeptical suburban right-leaning independents that he hemorrhaged this cycle. Remember that Trump LOST the popular vote, and not by an incredibly small margin either. He just won in the right places. If he actually won the popular vote he would've certainly flipped Minnesota, New Hampshire and Maine and probably Nevada and Colorado as well. Perhaps even Virginia

Trump has a huge responsibility to try and calm down the racist rhetoric that he caused during the campaign. Its not gonna be easy, which means he may have to fire some of the people he already wants on his staff. Sessions the Klansman from Alabama, is one of them.

The country just doesn't care about racism anymore. That's ancient.
e
Apparently they still do. And the media is making lots of money on it, too. So come on little birdie. Sit down and play with everyone else while dinner is cooking on the stove. =)
Greyparrot
Posts: 14,268
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11/18/2016 5:26:59 PM
Posted: 2 weeks ago
At 11/18/2016 5:06:38 PM, inferno wrote:
At 11/18/2016 4:58:37 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
At 11/18/2016 4:44:53 PM, inferno wrote:
At 11/18/2016 4:10:55 PM, thett3 wrote:
The conventional wisdom was that the GOP had maxed out the "Pennsatucky" area of the state, but Trump proved that completely false. Whatever you think of him, Trumps ability to drive turnout in rural and small town America was incredibly impressive.

Like we said in our PM, if there was a candidate that could activate both of the coalitions the GOP would be very difficult to beat. My hope is that Trump governs effectively and wins over skeptical suburban right-leaning independents that he hemorrhaged this cycle. Remember that Trump LOST the popular vote, and not by an incredibly small margin either. He just won in the right places. If he actually won the popular vote he would've certainly flipped Minnesota, New Hampshire and Maine and probably Nevada and Colorado as well. Perhaps even Virginia

Trump has a huge responsibility to try and calm down the racist rhetoric that he caused during the campaign. Its not gonna be easy, which means he may have to fire some of the people he already wants on his staff. Sessions the Klansman from Alabama, is one of them.

The country just doesn't care about racism anymore. That's ancient.
e
Apparently they still do. And the media is making lots of money on it, too. So come on little birdie. Sit down and play with everyone else while dinner is cooking on the stove. =)

The media is entertainment. The business part of america doesn't care about racism anymore.
Greyparrot
Posts: 14,268
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11/18/2016 5:28:26 PM
Posted: 2 weeks ago
Also, it's fun to tune into CNN and have wall to wall commentary about how outrageous it is that the american media was not allowed to select the president again.

And also that the president won't respect their authority.
inferno
Posts: 10,565
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11/18/2016 5:40:34 PM
Posted: 2 weeks ago
At 11/18/2016 5:28:26 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
Also, it's fun to tune into CNN and have wall to wall commentary about how outrageous it is that the american media was not allowed to select the president again.

And also that the president won't respect their authority.

It doesn't matter. CNN if given the chance will be Trumps demise, if he plays right into their hands. Not unless he really boosts this economy, the critics will be silenced.
He doesn't have a choice.
Greyparrot
Posts: 14,268
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11/18/2016 6:46:54 PM
Posted: 2 weeks ago
At 11/18/2016 5:40:34 PM, inferno wrote:
At 11/18/2016 5:28:26 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
Also, it's fun to tune into CNN and have wall to wall commentary about how outrageous it is that the american media was not allowed to select the president again.

And also that the president won't respect their authority.

It doesn't matter. CNN if given the chance will be Trumps demise, if he plays right into their hands. Not unless he really boosts this economy, the critics will be silenced.
He doesn't have a choice.

Yah...safe bet is the mediahounds won't be given any help at all.
inferno
Posts: 10,565
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11/18/2016 7:29:19 PM
Posted: 2 weeks ago
At 11/18/2016 6:46:54 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
At 11/18/2016 5:40:34 PM, inferno wrote:
At 11/18/2016 5:28:26 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
Also, it's fun to tune into CNN and have wall to wall commentary about how outrageous it is that the american media was not allowed to select the president again.

And also that the president won't respect their authority.

It doesn't matter. CNN if given the chance will be Trumps demise, if he plays right into their hands. Not unless he really boosts this economy, the critics will be silenced.
He doesn't have a choice.

Yah...safe bet is the mediahounds won't be given any help at all.

Did you vote for Trump.
Greyparrot
Posts: 14,268
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11/18/2016 7:30:49 PM
Posted: 2 weeks ago
At 11/18/2016 7:29:19 PM, inferno wrote:
At 11/18/2016 6:46:54 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
At 11/18/2016 5:40:34 PM, inferno wrote:
At 11/18/2016 5:28:26 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
Also, it's fun to tune into CNN and have wall to wall commentary about how outrageous it is that the american media was not allowed to select the president again.

And also that the president won't respect their authority.

It doesn't matter. CNN if given the chance will be Trumps demise, if he plays right into their hands. Not unless he really boosts this economy, the critics will be silenced.
He doesn't have a choice.

Yah...safe bet is the mediahounds won't be given any help at all.

Did you vote for Trump.

I love your period at the end of your question?
inferno
Posts: 10,565
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11/18/2016 7:33:01 PM
Posted: 2 weeks ago
At 11/18/2016 7:30:49 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
At 11/18/2016 7:29:19 PM, inferno wrote:
At 11/18/2016 6:46:54 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
At 11/18/2016 5:40:34 PM, inferno wrote:
At 11/18/2016 5:28:26 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
Also, it's fun to tune into CNN and have wall to wall commentary about how outrageous it is that the american media was not allowed to select the president again.

And also that the president won't respect their authority.

It doesn't matter. CNN if given the chance will be Trumps demise, if he plays right into their hands. Not unless he really boosts this economy, the critics will be silenced.
He doesn't have a choice.

Yah...safe bet is the mediahounds won't be given any help at all.

Did you vote for Trump.

I love your period at the end of your question?

Just answer the question.
Greyparrot
Posts: 14,268
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11/18/2016 7:33:48 PM
Posted: 2 weeks ago
At 11/18/2016 7:33:01 PM, inferno wrote:
At 11/18/2016 7:30:49 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
At 11/18/2016 7:29:19 PM, inferno wrote:
At 11/18/2016 6:46:54 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
At 11/18/2016 5:40:34 PM, inferno wrote:
At 11/18/2016 5:28:26 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
Also, it's fun to tune into CNN and have wall to wall commentary about how outrageous it is that the american media was not allowed to select the president again.

And also that the president won't respect their authority.

It doesn't matter. CNN if given the chance will be Trumps demise, if he plays right into their hands. Not unless he really boosts this economy, the critics will be silenced.
He doesn't have a choice.

Yah...safe bet is the mediahounds won't be given any help at all.

Did you vote for Trump.

I love your period at the end of your question?

Just answer the question.

I think the period says it all.
inferno
Posts: 10,565
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11/18/2016 7:43:33 PM
Posted: 2 weeks ago
At 11/18/2016 7:33:48 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
At 11/18/2016 7:33:01 PM, inferno wrote:
At 11/18/2016 7:30:49 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
At 11/18/2016 7:29:19 PM, inferno wrote:
At 11/18/2016 6:46:54 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
At 11/18/2016 5:40:34 PM, inferno wrote:
At 11/18/2016 5:28:26 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
Also, it's fun to tune into CNN and have wall to wall commentary about how outrageous it is that the american media was not allowed to select the president again.

And also that the president won't respect their authority.

It doesn't matter. CNN if given the chance will be Trumps demise, if he plays right into their hands. Not unless he really boosts this economy, the critics will be silenced.
He doesn't have a choice.

Yah...safe bet is the mediahounds won't be given any help at all.

Did you vote for Trump.

I love your period at the end of your question?

Just answer the question.

I think the period says it all.

Youre a stupid bird, you know that.
Greyparrot
Posts: 14,268
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11/18/2016 8:32:35 PM
Posted: 2 weeks ago
At 11/18/2016 7:43:33 PM, inferno wrote:
At 11/18/2016 7:33:48 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
At 11/18/2016 7:33:01 PM, inferno wrote:
At 11/18/2016 7:30:49 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
At 11/18/2016 7:29:19 PM, inferno wrote:
At 11/18/2016 6:46:54 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
At 11/18/2016 5:40:34 PM, inferno wrote:
At 11/18/2016 5:28:26 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
Also, it's fun to tune into CNN and have wall to wall commentary about how outrageous it is that the american media was not allowed to select the president again.

And also that the president won't respect their authority.

It doesn't matter. CNN if given the chance will be Trumps demise, if he plays right into their hands. Not unless he really boosts this economy, the critics will be silenced.
He doesn't have a choice.

Yah...safe bet is the mediahounds won't be given any help at all.

Did you vote for Trump.

I love your period at the end of your question?

Just answer the question.

I think the period says it all.

Youre a stupid bird, you know that.

That's a paradox.
TN05
Posts: 4,492
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11/18/2016 10:01:43 PM
Posted: 2 weeks ago
At 11/18/2016 4:10:55 PM, thett3 wrote:
The conventional wisdom was that the GOP had maxed out the "Pennsatucky" area of the state, but Trump proved that completely false. Whatever you think of him, Trumps ability to drive turnout in rural and small town America was incredibly impressive.

It was impressive. He literally gained 350,000 votes in upstate PA over Romney. That's nuts. I thought it was not likely at all, because it's very hard to encourage rural turnout like that. But he did.

Like we said in our PM, if there was a candidate that could activate both of the coalitions the GOP would be very difficult to beat. My hope is that Trump governs effectively and wins over skeptical suburban right-leaning independents that he hemorrhaged this cycle. Remember that Trump LOST the popular vote, and not by an incredibly small margin either. He just won in the right places. If he actually won the popular vote he would've certainly flipped Minnesota, New Hampshire and Maine and probably Nevada and Colorado as well. Perhaps even Virginia

A 51% win could very well look like this

http://www.270towin.com...
Lynx_N
Posts: 276
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11/18/2016 11:04:01 PM
Posted: 2 weeks ago
At 11/18/2016 5:28:26 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
Also, it's fun to tune into CNN and have wall to wall commentary about how outrageous it is that the american media was not allowed to select the president again.

And also that the president won't respect their authority.

http://memecrunch.com...
Bronto?
Congrats.

poet