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Donald Trump and international diplomacy

Vox_Veritas
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11/24/2016 4:05:54 AM
Posted: 1 week ago
In case you might not have heard, Turkey has recently threatened to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). This would put it at odds with its NATO allies, and perhaps lead to it exiting the North Atlantic Alliance.
The reason for this lies in the Turkish coup d'etat attempt earlier this year. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the president of Turkey, crushed the rebellion and instituted martial law over the country, imprisoning thousands.
The West has heavily denounced Erdogan's actions, and the U.S. is currently harbouring a Muslim cleric who was allegedly behind the coup. So, in response, Erdogan is now trying to find an alternative to Turkey's traditional alignment with the US-led western order.
Donald Trump, a man who really doesn't give a crap about the situation in Turkey, may be just what we need to keep Turkey from straying.
This is important because Turkey is the second strongest member of NATO. Turkish support is perhaps vital to NATO's plans for containing Russia (and Iran). Furthermore, if we lose Turkey, it may actually partner with Russia one day in invading Europe.
On the other side of the world, earlier this year the Filipino people elected a man named Rodrigo Duterte to be their president. Duterte wages a bloody war on drugs; to date, nearly 5000 people have been killed and over 750,000 have "surrendered" to the authorities, subsequently being sent to rehabilitation centers where conditions are extremely rough.
Again, the world voices its supposed outrage over Duterte's actions, and so Duterte now plans on aligning with Russia and China. Who can stop this from happening? That yuuge-handed fuhrer, who probably admires what Duterte is doing and most certainly will strike a conciliatory tone with the man. For the record, the U.S. needs The Philippines to serve as a launchpad for operations in East Asia if it ever hopes to defend Taiwan and contain China.
Then there's Russia itself. If the U.S. stops making a big fuss about Crimea, then it's possible that Russia will stand down and make peace with the West. In this event, we won't have to worry about nuclear war with the only country on planet Earth that could obliterate us. Furthermore, they could help us maintain stability in the Middle East, fight terrorism, and even contain China (I get the feeling that Russia's gonna get fearful for its control over Siberia in a decade or two).

The U.S. sucks up to Saudi Arabia, despite its human rights issues, because to do so is necessary to preserve US interests in the Middle East, and its oil security.
Now that Turkey and The Philippines have supposedly regressed, the U.S. is reluctant to do the same with them. But the truth is, the U.S. can and it must. Trump is willing to do this, whereas Hillary (assuming that the Electoral College proves itself to be treacherous swine) is not. In this regard, at least, Trump will preserve our alliances. The "wild cards" will be handled. Recent developments suggest that Trump will commit to NATO, so Europe will probably suck it up, stick with the US, and wait out the next 4-8 years.

Trump is truly the man of the hour, and my prior reason for voting for Hillary was dumb. If I could turn back the clock, I would vote for Donald J. Trump.
Call me Vox, the Resident Contrarian of debate.org.

The DDO Blog:
https://debatedotorg.wordpress.com...

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Vox_Veritas
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11/24/2016 4:08:35 AM
Posted: 1 week ago
He's also gonna get Europe, Japan, and South Korea to boost defense spending (or at least slow spending cuts), which is an added bonus to us.
Call me Vox, the Resident Contrarian of debate.org.

The DDO Blog:
https://debatedotorg.wordpress.com...

#drinkthecoffeenotthekoolaid
Vox_Veritas
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11/24/2016 4:41:31 AM
Posted: 1 week ago
I also think Trump's gonna do great with our Middle Eastern allies. While he did say that he's gonna restrict Muslim immigrants (now it's dubious if he's gonna hold to this), most Arab dictators really don't care about that. He's anti-Iran, as most of the Middle East is (if you're a Sunni-majority country then the Iranians are evil Shi'ite heretics, and if you're Arab Shi'ites then the Iranians are a threat to the Arab race). He's not a big on spreading democracy, which'll repair the breach caused by the Arab Spring. He says now that the U.S. should've never invaded Iraq (even though ultimately it's good that we did).
Call me Vox, the Resident Contrarian of debate.org.

The DDO Blog:
https://debatedotorg.wordpress.com...

#drinkthecoffeenotthekoolaid
Greyparrot
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11/24/2016 5:28:21 AM
Posted: 1 week ago
At 11/24/2016 4:41:31 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
I also think Trump's gonna do great with our Middle Eastern allies. While he did say that he's gonna restrict Muslim immigrants (now it's dubious if he's gonna hold to this), most Arab dictators really don't care about that. He's anti-Iran, as most of the Middle East is (if you're a Sunni-majority country then the Iranians are evil Shi'ite heretics, and if you're Arab Shi'ites then the Iranians are a threat to the Arab race). He's not a big on spreading democracy, which'll repair the breach caused by the Arab Spring. He says now that the U.S. should've never invaded Iraq (even though ultimately it's good that we did).

It was always a temporary ban, even if the media refused to report the facts.
Bennett91
Posts: 4,227
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11/24/2016 11:08:54 AM
Posted: 1 week ago
At 11/24/2016 4:05:54 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
In case you might not have heard, Turkey has recently threatened to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). This would put it at odds with its NATO allies, and perhaps lead to it exiting the North Atlantic Alliance.
The reason for this lies in the Turkish coup d'etat attempt earlier this year. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the president of Turkey, crushed the rebellion and instituted martial law over the country, imprisoning thousands.
The West has heavily denounced Erdogan's actions, and the U.S. is currently harbouring a Muslim cleric who was allegedly behind the coup. So, in response, Erdogan is now trying to find an alternative to Turkey's traditional alignment with the US-led western order.

Indeed the Turkish government is being extremely erratic and turning towards more Islamist tendencies. That coup was a joke, especially when they are blaming a guy for orchestrating it thousands of miles away. IMO the coup was staged or at least anti-ergodan supports tricked in order to flush them out and kill them w/o reprisal.

Donald Trump, a man who really doesn't give a crap about the situation in Turkey, may be just what we need to keep Turkey from straying.

You're going to have to explain that one. If Trump doesn't care about Turkey why would Turkey stay in NATO when Turkey could work with Russia to kill off the Kurds?

This is important because Turkey is the second strongest member of NATO.

4th http://www.globalfirepower.com...

Turkish support is perhaps vital to NATO's plans for containing Russia (and Iran).

But if Trump is going to be friends with Russia and doesn't care about Turkey then why is Turkey important to counter Russia? Duterte even wants to help us 3 becomes friends.

Furthermore, if we lose Turkey, it may actually partner with Russia one day in invading Europe.

So Trump shouldn't be friends with Russia??

On the other side of the world, earlier this year the Filipino people elected a man named Rodrigo Duterte to be their president. Duterte wages a bloody war on drugs; to date, nearly 5000 people have been killed and over 750,000 have "surrendered" to the authorities, subsequently being sent to rehabilitation centers where conditions are extremely rough.
Again, the world voices its supposed outrage over Duterte's actions, and so Duterte now plans on aligning with Russia and China. Who can stop this from happening? That yuuge-handed fuhrer, who probably admires what Duterte is doing and most certainly will strike a conciliatory tone with the man. For the record, the U.S. needs The Philippines to serve as a launchpad for operations in East Asia if it ever hopes to defend Taiwan and contain China.

I can't tell if you're being serious when you call Trump Fuhrer. But yea, their similar personalities will probably help relations. But I imagine the Philippines are playing the US and China against each other for the best possible deal.

Then there's Russia itself. If the U.S. stops making a big fuss about Crimea, then it's possible that Russia will stand down and make peace with the West. In this event, we won't have to worry about nuclear war with the only country on planet Earth that could obliterate us. Furthermore, they could help us maintain stability in the Middle East, fight terrorism, and even contain China (I get the feeling that Russia's gonna get fearful for its control over Siberia in a decade or two).

But you said Russia might be planing on invading Europe? I don't think nuclear war was ever really considered a threat. MAD is still in effect. As for letting Russia in the middle east we're already seeing tension. Russia is attacking US backed rebels instead of ISIS. And if we let Russia have more sway as I mentioned they may gain Turkish support by attacking US backed Kurds.

Also why would Russia help contain China when both are in the Shanghai Cooperation Org??

The U.S. sucks up to Saudi Arabia, despite its human rights issues, because to do so is necessary to preserve US interests in the Middle East, and its oil security.

And Russia is no better with its interests. But Trump isn't going to stand up to Russia if he's going to appease Russian expansion.

Now that Turkey and The Philippines have supposedly regressed, the U.S. is reluctant to do the same with them. But the truth is, the U.S. can and it must. Trump is willing to do this, whereas Hillary (assuming that the Electoral College proves itself to be treacherous swine) is not. In this regard, at least, Trump will preserve our alliances. The "wild cards" will be handled. Recent developments suggest that Trump will commit to NATO, so Europe will probably suck it up, stick with the US, and wait out the next 4-8 years.

.. So you're saying Trump shouldn't be friendly with Russia and China by maintaining strategic alliances?

Trump is truly the man of the hour, and my prior reason for voting for Hillary was dumb. If I could turn back the clock, I would vote for Donald J. Trump.
Vox_Veritas
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11/24/2016 4:02:48 PM
Posted: 1 week ago
At 11/24/2016 11:08:54 AM, Bennett91 wrote:
At 11/24/2016 4:05:54 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
In case you might not have heard, Turkey has recently threatened to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). This would put it at odds with its NATO allies, and perhaps lead to it exiting the North Atlantic Alliance.
The reason for this lies in the Turkish coup d'etat attempt earlier this year. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the president of Turkey, crushed the rebellion and instituted martial law over the country, imprisoning thousands.
The West has heavily denounced Erdogan's actions, and the U.S. is currently harbouring a Muslim cleric who was allegedly behind the coup. So, in response, Erdogan is now trying to find an alternative to Turkey's traditional alignment with the US-led western order.

Indeed the Turkish government is being extremely erratic and turning towards more Islamist tendencies. That coup was a joke, especially when they are blaming a guy for orchestrating it thousands of miles away. IMO the coup was staged or at least anti-ergodan supports tricked in order to flush them out and kill them w/o reprisal.

Donald Trump, a man who really doesn't give a crap about the situation in Turkey, may be just what we need to keep Turkey from straying.

What I mean is that he doesn't care about the human rights situation in Turkey, thus he probably won't criticise what Erdogan's doing. The EU's probably gonna sanction Turkey and stuff, while Trump will likely recognise the importance of keeping Turkey on our side, and he might even give them Gulen as something of a peace offering. His approach to Turkey will likely be the only thing that keeps Turkey from defecting.
Perhaps our biggest sore spot with Turkey is the Kurds, but it would seem like Trump isn't interested in giving aid to any more militant groups in the region, which should help patch things up a little bit.

You're going to have to explain that one. If Trump doesn't care about Turkey why would Turkey stay in NATO when Turkey could work with Russia to kill off the Kurds?

This is important because Turkey is the second strongest member of NATO.

It's the second largest in size, though I guess that doesn't necessarily equate to military might.

4th http://www.globalfirepower.com...

Turkish support is perhaps vital to NATO's plans for containing Russia (and Iran).

Having the ability to contain Russia in the event of an escalation doesn't mean that the U.S. can't eventually be allies with Russia. And becoming allies with Russia doesn't mean we'll have to give Turkey the boot; look at Greece, which coexists in NATO with Turkey despite having equally strained relations.

But if Trump is going to be friends with Russia and doesn't care about Turkey then why is Turkey important to counter Russia? Duterte even wants to help us 3 becomes friends.

Furthermore, if we lose Turkey, it may actually partner with Russia one day in invading Europe.

So Trump shouldn't be friends with Russia??

On the other side of the world, earlier this year the Filipino people elected a man named Rodrigo Duterte to be their president. Duterte wages a bloody war on drugs; to date, nearly 5000 people have been killed and over 750,000 have "surrendered" to the authorities, subsequently being sent to rehabilitation centers where conditions are extremely rough.
Again, the world voices its supposed outrage over Duterte's actions, and so Duterte now plans on aligning with Russia and China. Who can stop this from happening? That yuuge-handed fuhrer, who probably admires what Duterte is doing and most certainly will strike a conciliatory tone with the man. For the record, the U.S. needs The Philippines to serve as a launchpad for operations in East Asia if it ever hopes to defend Taiwan and contain China.

The fuhrer thing is a joke, because so many people have compared Trump to Hitler. I think the U.S. may have to grant some concessions to the Philippines (tolerating Duterte's war on drugs is one of them), but if the alliance is preserved then that's a small price to pay.

I can't tell if you're being serious when you call Trump Fuhrer. But yea, their similar personalities will probably help relations. But I imagine the Philippines are playing the US and China against each other for the best possible deal.

Then there's Russia itself. If the U.S. stops making a big fuss about Crimea, then it's possible that Russia will stand down and make peace with the West. In this event, we won't have to worry about nuclear war with the only country on planet Earth that could obliterate us. Furthermore, they could help us maintain stability in the Middle East, fight terrorism, and even contain China (I get the feeling that Russia's gonna get fearful for its control over Siberia in a decade or two).

I don't imagine nuclear weapons coming into play with an invasion of Eastern Europe. Heck, I don't think England and France would use them if the Russians were invading their lands.

But you said Russia might be planing on invading Europe? I don't think nuclear war was ever really considered a threat. MAD is still in effect. As for letting Russia in the middle east we're already seeing tension. Russia is attacking US backed rebels instead of ISIS. And if we let Russia have more sway as I mentioned they may gain Turkish support by attacking US backed Kurds.

In a worst case scenario, the U.S. strips Russia of its array of traditional allies. In a worst case scenario, China invades and annexed half or 2/3ds of Russia. When you think about it, it's a pretty easy choice to make, and when China becomes strong enough to defeat Russia in a war I think Putin will likely seek Western protection.

Also why would Russia help contain China when both are in the Shanghai Cooperation Org??

The U.S. sucks up to Saudi Arabia, despite its human rights issues, because to do so is necessary to preserve US interests in the Middle East, and its oil security.

He doesn't really need to "stand up" to them as long as he is willing to defend our NATO partners.

And Russia is no better with its interests. But Trump isn't going to stand up to Russia if he's going to appease Russian expansion.

Now that Turkey and The Philippines have supposedly regressed, the U.S. is reluctant to do the same with them. But the truth is, the U.S. can and it must. Trump is willing to do this, whereas Hillary (assuming that the Electoral College proves itself to be treacherous swine) is not. In this regard, at least, Trump will preserve our alliances. The "wild cards" will be handled. Recent developments suggest that Trump will commit to NATO, so Europe will probably suck it up, stick with the US, and wait out the next 4-8 years.

.. So you're saying Trump shouldn't be friendly with Russia and China by maintaining strategic alliances?

Trump is truly the man of the hour, and my prior reason for voting for Hillary was dumb. If I could turn back the clock, I would vote for Donald J. Trump.
Call me Vox, the Resident Contrarian of debate.org.

The DDO Blog:
https://debatedotorg.wordpress.com...

#drinkthecoffeenotthekoolaid
Chloe8
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11/26/2016 6:58:46 PM
Posted: 1 week ago
At 11/24/2016 4:05:54 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
In case you might not have heard, Turkey has recently threatened to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). This would put it at odds with its NATO allies, and perhaps lead to it exiting the North Atlantic Alliance.
The reason for this lies in the Turkish coup d'etat attempt earlier this year. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the president of Turkey, crushed the rebellion and instituted martial law over the country, imprisoning thousands.

In my opinion Turkey should be kicked out of NATO. I don't think we should let them blackmail the west into being friendly with them merely to secure strategic interests. The reality is Turkey is turning its back on democracy and freedom of speech and becoming an Islamist dictatorship. If Turkey wants to enjoy the benefits of strong political, military and economic alliances with the west it needs to abide to western values such as freedom of press, women's rights, democracy and the separation of state and religion.

The West has heavily denounced Erdogan's actions, and the U.S. is currently harbouring a Muslim cleric who was allegedly behind the coup. So, in response, Erdogan is now trying to find an alternative to Turkey's traditional alignment with the US-led western order.

Putin and Erdogan have poor relations anyway and the best way to contain Erdogan is improving relations with Russia. If both countries apply pressure on Turkey it's position will weaken and hopefully the negative changes happening there are reversed before it's too late.

Donald Trump, a man who really doesn't give a crap about the situation in Turkey, may be just what we need to keep Turkey from straying.
This is important because Turkey is the second strongest member of NATO.

Actually the UK and France are stronger members of NATO than Turkey in terms of spending and resources.

Turkish support is perhaps vital to NATO's plans for containing Russia (and Iran). Furthermore, if we lose Turkey, it may actually partner with Russia one day in invading Europe.

I would not try to use Turkey to contain Russia. It won't work. Turkey lacks the military and economic capacity to contain Russia. In my opinion using Russia to contain Turkey is a better idea because it would actually work.

On the other side of the world, earlier this year the Filipino people elected a man named Rodrigo Duterte to be their president. Duterte wages a bloody war on drugs; to date, nearly 5000 people have been killed and over 750,000 have "surrendered" to the authorities, subsequently being sent to rehabilitation centers where conditions are extremely rough.
Again, the world voices its supposed outrage over Duterte's actions, and so Duterte now plans on aligning with Russia and China. Who can stop this from happening? That yuuge-handed fuhrer, who probably admires what Duterte is doing and most certainly will strike a conciliatory tone with the man. For the record, the U.S. needs The Philippines to serve as a launchpad for operations in East Asia if it ever hopes to defend Taiwan and contain China.

Personally I don't really see why the USA would need to be interested in defending Taiwan and containing China. I think improving relations with China is a better way to influence the future actions of the Chinese government. There is no need in my opinion to worry about relations between the USA and China.

Then there's Russia itself. If the U.S. stops making a big fuss about Crimea, then it's possible that Russia will stand down and make peace with the West. In this event, we won't have to worry about nuclear war with the only country on planet Earth that could obliterate us. Furthermore, they could help us maintain stability in the Middle East, fight terrorism, and even contain China (I get the feeling that Russia's gonna get fearful for its control over Siberia in a decade or two).

I agree improving relations with Russia is the sensible approach. I would propose allowing Putin to do whatever is neccessary to end the Syrian civil war and reinstate Assad to power. This would end a bloody war with too many different sides fighting and hopefully reduce the threat of terrorism and prevent Syria becoming a failed state.

I would try and pursuade Putin to agree to hold a referendum in Crimea conducted by an international body that could be observed closely by Russian officials to ensure the referendum was democratic. I think Putin would agree if the west promised to recognize the result as most Crimean people want to be part of Russia and it's in Putin's interest to have international recognition of Russian sovereignty in Crimea.

I would propose a deal between Russia and Ukraine where the Russian government withdraws support for the separatist rebels in the donbass region of Ukraine and allow the Ukrainian military to retake the territory. In return the Ukrainian government would recognize Russian sovereignty of Crimea and the west would remove economic sanctions on Russia.

The U.S. sucks up to Saudi Arabia, despite its human rights issues, because to do so is necessary to preserve US interests in the Middle East, and its oil security.

It should not suck up to Saudi Arabia. I would threaten it with stringent sanctions unless it makes substantial improvements in areas such as democracy, press freedom, democracy and women's rights.

Now that Turkey and The Philippines have supposedly regressed, the U.S. is reluctant to do the same with them. But the truth is, the U.S. can and it must. Trump is willing to do this, whereas Hillary (assuming that the Electoral College proves itself to be treacherous swine) is not. In this regard, at least, Trump will preserve our alliances. The "wild cards" will be handled. Recent developments suggest that Trump will commit to NATO, so Europe will probably suck it up, stick with the US, and wait out the next 4-8 years.

Trump is truly the man of the hour, and my prior reason for voting for Hillary was dumb. If I could turn back the clock, I would vote for Donald J. Trump.

I'm surprised you voted for Clinton, time will tell if Trump does a good job regarding foreign policy. It could go either way in my opinion.
"I don't need experience.to knock you out. I'm a man. that's all I need to beat you and any woman."

Fatihah, in his delusion that he could knock out any woman while bragging about being able to knock me out. An example of 7th century Islamic thinking inspired by his hero the paedophile Muhammad.
Chloe8
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11/26/2016 7:04:08 PM
Posted: 1 week ago
At 11/24/2016 4:02:48 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 11/24/2016 11:08:54 AM, Bennett91 wrote:
At 11/24/2016 4:05:54 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
In case you might not have heard, Turkey has recently threatened to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). This would put it at odds with its NATO allies, and perhaps lead to it exiting the North Atlantic Alliance.
The reason for this lies in the Turkish coup d'etat attempt earlier this year. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the president of Turkey, crushed the rebellion and instituted martial law over the country, imprisoning thousands.
The West has heavily denounced Erdogan's actions, and the U.S. is currently harbouring a Muslim cleric who was allegedly behind the coup. So, in response, Erdogan is now trying to find an alternative to Turkey's traditional alignment with the US-led western order.

Indeed the Turkish government is being extremely erratic and turning towards more Islamist tendencies. That coup was a joke, especially when they are blaming a guy for orchestrating it thousands of miles away. IMO the coup was staged or at least anti-ergodan supports tricked in order to flush them out and kill them w/o reprisal.

Donald Trump, a man who really doesn't give a crap about the situation in Turkey, may be just what we need to keep Turkey from straying.

What I mean is that he doesn't care about the human rights situation in Turkey, thus he probably won't criticise what Erdogan's doing. The EU's probably gonna sanction Turkey and stuff, while Trump will likely recognise the importance of keeping Turkey on our side, and he might even give them Gulen as something of a peace offering. His approach to Turkey will likely be the only thing that keeps Turkey from defecting.
Perhaps our biggest sore spot with Turkey is the Kurds, but it would seem like Trump isn't interested in giving aid to any more militant groups in the region, which should help patch things up a little bit.

You're going to have to explain that one. If Trump doesn't care about Turkey why would Turkey stay in NATO when Turkey could work with Russia to kill off the Kurds?

This is important because Turkey is the second strongest member of NATO.

It's the second largest in size, though I guess that doesn't necessarily equate to military might.

4th http://www.globalfirepower.com...

Turkish support is perhaps vital to NATO's plans for containing Russia (and Iran).

Having the ability to contain Russia in the event of an escalation doesn't mean that the U.S. can't eventually be allies with Russia. And becoming allies with Russia doesn't mean we'll have to give Turkey the boot; look at Greece, which coexists in NATO with Turkey despite having equally strained relations.

But if Trump is going to be friends with Russia and doesn't care about Turkey then why is Turkey important to counter Russia? Duterte even wants to help us 3 becomes friends.

Furthermore, if we lose Turkey, it may actually partner with Russia one day in invading Europe.

So Trump shouldn't be friends with Russia??

On the other side of the world, earlier this year the Filipino people elected a man named Rodrigo Duterte to be their president. Duterte wages a bloody war on drugs; to date, nearly 5000 people have been killed and over 750,000 have "surrendered" to the authorities, subsequently being sent to rehabilitation centers where conditions are extremely rough.
Again, the world voices its supposed outrage over Duterte's actions, and so Duterte now plans on aligning with Russia and China. Who can stop this from happening? That yuuge-handed fuhrer, who probably admires what Duterte is doing and most certainly will strike a conciliatory tone with the man. For the record, the U.S. needs The Philippines to serve as a launchpad for operations in East Asia if it ever hopes to defend Taiwan and contain China.

The fuhrer thing is a joke, because so many people have compared Trump to Hitler. I think the U.S. may have to grant some concessions to the Philippines (tolerating Duterte's war on drugs is one of them), but if the alliance is preserved then that's a small price to pay.

I can't tell if you're being serious when you call Trump Fuhrer. But yea, their similar personalities will probably help relations. But I imagine the Philippines are playing the US and China against each other for the best possible deal.

Then there's Russia itself. If the U.S. stops making a big fuss about Crimea, then it's possible that Russia will stand down and make peace with the West. In this event, we won't have to worry about nuclear war with the only country on planet Earth that could obliterate us. Furthermore, they could help us maintain stability in the Middle East, fight terrorism, and even contain China (I get the feeling that Russia's gonna get fearful for its control over Siberia in a decade or two).

I don't imagine nuclear weapons coming into play with an invasion of Eastern Europe. Heck, I don't think England and France would use them if the Russians were invading their lands.

Putin would not be dumb enough to invade the UK. He knows we have nukes.

But you said Russia might be planing on invading Europe? I don't think nuclear war was ever really considered a threat. MAD is still in effect. As for letting Russia in the middle east we're already seeing tension. Russia is attacking US backed rebels instead of ISIS. And if we let Russia have more sway as I mentioned they may gain Turkish support by attacking US backed Kurds.

In a worst case scenario, the U.S. strips Russia of its array of traditional allies. In a worst case scenario, China invades and annexed half or 2/3ds of Russia. When you think about it, it's a pretty easy choice to make, and when China becomes strong enough to defeat Russia in a war I think Putin will likely seek Western protection.

Putin needs no western protection. He can simply threaten to obliterate China with his nuclear arsenal even if it's conventional army is much stronger than Russia's.

Also why would Russia help contain China when both are in the Shanghai Cooperation Org??

The U.S. sucks up to Saudi Arabia, despite its human rights issues, because to do so is necessary to preserve US interests in the Middle East, and its oil security.

He doesn't really need to "stand up" to them as long as he is willing to defend our NATO partners.

And Russia is no better with its interests. But Trump isn't going to stand up to Russia if he's going to appease Russian expansion.

Now that Turkey and The Philippines have supposedly regressed, the U.S. is reluctant to do the same with them. But the truth is, the U.S. can and it must. Trump is willing to do this, whereas Hillary (assuming that the Electoral College proves itself to be treacherous swine) is not. In this regard, at least, Trump will preserve our alliances. The "wild cards" will be handled. Recent developments suggest that Trump will commit to NATO, so Europe will probably suck it up, stick with the US, and wait out the next 4-8 years.

.. So you're saying Trump shouldn't be friendly with Russia and China by maintaining strategic alliances?

Trump is truly the man of the hour, and my prior reason for voting for Hillary was dumb. If I could turn back the clock, I would vote for Donald J. Trump.
"I don't need experience.to knock you out. I'm a man. that's all I need to beat you and any woman."

Fatihah, in his delusion that he could knock out any woman while bragging about being able to knock me out. An example of 7th century Islamic thinking inspired by his hero the paedophile Muhammad.
Vox_Veritas
Posts: 7,074
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11/26/2016 8:17:32 PM
Posted: 1 week ago
At 11/26/2016 7:04:08 PM, Chloe8 wrote:
At 11/24/2016 4:02:48 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 11/24/2016 11:08:54 AM, Bennett91 wrote:
At 11/24/2016 4:05:54 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
In case you might not have heard, Turkey has recently threatened to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). This would put it at odds with its NATO allies, and perhaps lead to it exiting the North Atlantic Alliance.
The reason for this lies in the Turkish coup d'etat attempt earlier this year. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the president of Turkey, crushed the rebellion and instituted martial law over the country, imprisoning thousands.
The West has heavily denounced Erdogan's actions, and the U.S. is currently harbouring a Muslim cleric who was allegedly behind the coup. So, in response, Erdogan is now trying to find an alternative to Turkey's traditional alignment with the US-led western order.

Indeed the Turkish government is being extremely erratic and turning towards more Islamist tendencies. That coup was a joke, especially when they are blaming a guy for orchestrating it thousands of miles away. IMO the coup was staged or at least anti-ergodan supports tricked in order to flush them out and kill them w/o reprisal.

Donald Trump, a man who really doesn't give a crap about the situation in Turkey, may be just what we need to keep Turkey from straying.

What I mean is that he doesn't care about the human rights situation in Turkey, thus he probably won't criticise what Erdogan's doing. The EU's probably gonna sanction Turkey and stuff, while Trump will likely recognise the importance of keeping Turkey on our side, and he might even give them Gulen as something of a peace offering. His approach to Turkey will likely be the only thing that keeps Turkey from defecting.
Perhaps our biggest sore spot with Turkey is the Kurds, but it would seem like Trump isn't interested in giving aid to any more militant groups in the region, which should help patch things up a little bit.

You're going to have to explain that one. If Trump doesn't care about Turkey why would Turkey stay in NATO when Turkey could work with Russia to kill off the Kurds?

This is important because Turkey is the second strongest member of NATO.

It's the second largest in size, though I guess that doesn't necessarily equate to military might.

4th http://www.globalfirepower.com...

Turkish support is perhaps vital to NATO's plans for containing Russia (and Iran).

Having the ability to contain Russia in the event of an escalation doesn't mean that the U.S. can't eventually be allies with Russia. And becoming allies with Russia doesn't mean we'll have to give Turkey the boot; look at Greece, which coexists in NATO with Turkey despite having equally strained relations.

But if Trump is going to be friends with Russia and doesn't care about Turkey then why is Turkey important to counter Russia? Duterte even wants to help us 3 becomes friends.

Furthermore, if we lose Turkey, it may actually partner with Russia one day in invading Europe.

So Trump shouldn't be friends with Russia??

On the other side of the world, earlier this year the Filipino people elected a man named Rodrigo Duterte to be their president. Duterte wages a bloody war on drugs; to date, nearly 5000 people have been killed and over 750,000 have "surrendered" to the authorities, subsequently being sent to rehabilitation centers where conditions are extremely rough.
Again, the world voices its supposed outrage over Duterte's actions, and so Duterte now plans on aligning with Russia and China. Who can stop this from happening? That yuuge-handed fuhrer, who probably admires what Duterte is doing and most certainly will strike a conciliatory tone with the man. For the record, the U.S. needs The Philippines to serve as a launchpad for operations in East Asia if it ever hopes to defend Taiwan and contain China.

The fuhrer thing is a joke, because so many people have compared Trump to Hitler. I think the U.S. may have to grant some concessions to the Philippines (tolerating Duterte's war on drugs is one of them), but if the alliance is preserved then that's a small price to pay.

I can't tell if you're being serious when you call Trump Fuhrer. But yea, their similar personalities will probably help relations. But I imagine the Philippines are playing the US and China against each other for the best possible deal.

Then there's Russia itself. If the U.S. stops making a big fuss about Crimea, then it's possible that Russia will stand down and make peace with the West. In this event, we won't have to worry about nuclear war with the only country on planet Earth that could obliterate us. Furthermore, they could help us maintain stability in the Middle East, fight terrorism, and even contain China (I get the feeling that Russia's gonna get fearful for its control over Siberia in a decade or two).

I don't imagine nuclear weapons coming into play with an invasion of Eastern Europe. Heck, I don't think England and France would use them if the Russians were invading their lands.

Putin would not be dumb enough to invade the UK. He knows we have nukes.

He would if he thought that the UK wouldn't use them. And why exactly would the UK start a nuclear war? It'd likely be liberated by NATO after a few years of fighting (just like with France during WWII), and even if not, isn't life under Russian occupation preferable to total annihilation?

But you said Russia might be planing on invading Europe? I don't think nuclear war was ever really considered a threat. MAD is still in effect. As for letting Russia in the middle east we're already seeing tension. Russia is attacking US backed rebels instead of ISIS. And if we let Russia have more sway as I mentioned they may gain Turkish support by attacking US backed Kurds.

In a worst case scenario, the U.S. strips Russia of its array of traditional allies. In a worst case scenario, China invades and annexed half or 2/3ds of Russia. When you think about it, it's a pretty easy choice to make, and when China becomes strong enough to defeat Russia in a war I think Putin will likely seek Western protection.

Putin needs no western protection. He can simply threaten to obliterate China with his nuclear arsenal even if it's conventional army is much stronger than Russia's.

You forget that China also has nuclear weapons.

Also why would Russia help contain China when both are in the Shanghai Cooperation Org??

The U.S. sucks up to Saudi Arabia, despite its human rights issues, because to do so is necessary to preserve US interests in the Middle East, and its oil security.

He doesn't really need to "stand up" to them as long as he is willing to defend our NATO partners.

And Russia is no better with its interests. But Trump isn't going to stand up to Russia if he's going to appease Russian expansion.

Now that Turkey and The Philippines have supposedly regressed, the U.S. is reluctant to do the same with them. But the truth is, the U.S. can and it must. Trump is willing to do this, whereas Hillary (assuming that the Electoral College proves itself to be treacherous swine) is not. In this regard, at least, Trump will preserve our alliances. The "wild cards" will be handled. Recent developments suggest that Trump will commit to NATO, so Europe will probably suck it up, stick with the US, and wait out the next 4-8 years.

.. So you're saying Trump shouldn't be friendly with Russia and China by maintaining strategic alliances?
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Vox_Veritas
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11/26/2016 8:28:13 PM
Posted: 1 week ago
At 11/26/2016 6:58:46 PM, Chloe8 wrote:
At 11/24/2016 4:05:54 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
In case you might not have heard, Turkey has recently threatened to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). This would put it at odds with its NATO allies, and perhaps lead to it exiting the North Atlantic Alliance.
The reason for this lies in the Turkish coup d'etat attempt earlier this year. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the president of Turkey, crushed the rebellion and instituted martial law over the country, imprisoning thousands.

In my opinion Turkey should be kicked out of NATO. I don't think we should let them blackmail the west into being friendly with them merely to secure strategic interests. The reality is Turkey is turning its back on democracy and freedom of speech and becoming an Islamist dictatorship. If Turkey wants to enjoy the benefits of strong political, military and economic alliances with the west it needs to abide to western values such as freedom of press, women's rights, democracy and the separation of state and religion.

The West has heavily denounced Erdogan's actions, and the U.S. is currently harbouring a Muslim cleric who was allegedly behind the coup. So, in response, Erdogan is now trying to find an alternative to Turkey's traditional alignment with the US-led western order.

Putin and Erdogan have poor relations anyway and the best way to contain Erdogan is improving relations with Russia. If both countries apply pressure on Turkey it's position will weaken and hopefully the negative changes happening there are reversed before it's too late.

Donald Trump, a man who really doesn't give a crap about the situation in Turkey, may be just what we need to keep Turkey from straying.
This is important because Turkey is the second strongest member of NATO.

Actually the UK and France are stronger members of NATO than Turkey in terms of spending and resources.

Turkish support is perhaps vital to NATO's plans for containing Russia (and Iran). Furthermore, if we lose Turkey, it may actually partner with Russia one day in invading Europe.

I would not try to use Turkey to contain Russia. It won't work. Turkey lacks the military and economic capacity to contain Russia. In my opinion using Russia to contain Turkey is a better idea because it would actually work.

On the other side of the world, earlier this year the Filipino people elected a man named Rodrigo Duterte to be their president. Duterte wages a bloody war on drugs; to date, nearly 5000 people have been killed and over 750,000 have "surrendered" to the authorities, subsequently being sent to rehabilitation centers where conditions are extremely rough.
Again, the world voices its supposed outrage over Duterte's actions, and so Duterte now plans on aligning with Russia and China. Who can stop this from happening? That yuuge-handed fuhrer, who probably admires what Duterte is doing and most certainly will strike a conciliatory tone with the man. For the record, the U.S. needs The Philippines to serve as a launchpad for operations in East Asia if it ever hopes to defend Taiwan and contain China.

Personally I don't really see why the USA would need to be interested in defending Taiwan and containing China. I think improving relations with China is a better way to influence the future actions of the Chinese government. There is no need in my opinion to worry about relations between the USA and China.

Then there's Russia itself. If the U.S. stops making a big fuss about Crimea, then it's possible that Russia will stand down and make peace with the West. In this event, we won't have to worry about nuclear war with the only country on planet Earth that could obliterate us. Furthermore, they could help us maintain stability in the Middle East, fight terrorism, and even contain China (I get the feeling that Russia's gonna get fearful for its control over Siberia in a decade or two).

I agree improving relations with Russia is the sensible approach. I would propose allowing Putin to do whatever is neccessary to end the Syrian civil war and reinstate Assad to power. This would end a bloody war with too many different sides fighting and hopefully reduce the threat of terrorism and prevent Syria becoming a failed state.

I would try and pursuade Putin to agree to hold a referendum in Crimea conducted by an international body that could be observed closely by Russian officials to ensure the referendum was democratic. I think Putin would agree if the west promised to recognize the result as most Crimean people want to be part of Russia and it's in Putin's interest to have international recognition of Russian sovereignty in Crimea.

I would propose a deal between Russia and Ukraine where the Russian government withdraws support for the separatist rebels in the donbass region of Ukraine and allow the Ukrainian military to retake the territory. In return the Ukrainian government would recognize Russian sovereignty of Crimea and the west would remove economic sanctions on Russia.

Cool. Here's what I would do: I would drop sanctions against Russia and then settle on the status of Crimea being a disputed territory. That is, the West would continue to recognise it as Ukrainian land, but it wouldn't make a big deal about the illegal Russian occupation. The U.S. would concentrate NATO forces in Central Europe and withdraw All forces from the Baltics, with the promise that NATO would not tolerate any Russian incursion on the sovereignty of the three countries in question.
In the event that Putin invaded the Baltics, NATO would begin a military campaign to liberate the Baltics, taking Kaliningrad in the process. After this point a permanent large NATO garrison would be positioned in the Baltics, and Russia would never get Kaliningrad back. All of its inhabitants would either be deported to Russia or forcibly sterilised. Then the land would be resettled by Poles and Lithuanians. Likewise, after such a Baltic war NATO would move to forcibly liberate Crimea and give it back to Ukraine.
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Chloe8
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11/26/2016 9:29:07 PM
Posted: 1 week ago
What I mean is that he doesn't care about the human rights situation in Turkey, thus he probably won't criticise what Erdogan's doing. The EU's probably gonna sanction Turkey and stuff, while Trump will likely recognise the importance of keeping Turkey on our side, and he might even give them Gulen as something of a peace offering. His approach to Turkey will likely be the only thing that keeps Turkey from defecting.
Perhaps our biggest sore spot with Turkey is the Kurds, but it would seem like Trump isn't interested in giving aid to any more militant groups in the region, which should help patch things up a little bit.

You're going to have to explain that one. If Trump doesn't care about Turkey why would Turkey stay in NATO when Turkey could work with Russia to kill off the Kurds?

This is important because Turkey is the second strongest member of NATO.

It's the second largest in size, though I guess that doesn't necessarily equate to military might.

4th http://www.globalfirepower.com...

Turkish support is perhaps vital to NATO's plans for containing Russia (and Iran).

Having the ability to contain Russia in the event of an escalation doesn't mean that the U.S. can't eventually be allies with Russia. And becoming allies with Russia doesn't mean we'll have to give Turkey the boot; look at Greece, which coexists in NATO with Turkey despite having equally strained relations.

But if Trump is going to be friends with Russia and doesn't care about Turkey then why is Turkey important to counter Russia? Duterte even wants to help us 3 becomes friends.

Furthermore, if we lose Turkey, it may actually partner with Russia one day in invading Europe.

So Trump shouldn't be friends with Russia??

On the other side of the world, earlier this year the Filipino people elected a man named Rodrigo Duterte to be their president. Duterte wages a bloody war on drugs; to date, nearly 5000 people have been killed and over 750,000 have "surrendered" to the authorities, subsequently being sent to rehabilitation centers where conditions are extremely rough.
Again, the world voices its supposed outrage over Duterte's actions, and so Duterte now plans on aligning with Russia and China. Who can stop this from happening? That yuuge-handed fuhrer, who probably admires what Duterte is doing and most certainly will strike a conciliatory tone with the man. For the record, the U.S. needs The Philippines to serve as a launchpad for operations in East Asia if it ever hopes to defend Taiwan and contain China.

The fuhrer thing is a joke, because so many people have compared Trump to Hitler. I think the U.S. may have to grant some concessions to the Philippines (tolerating Duterte's war on drugs is one of them), but if the alliance is preserved then that's a small price to pay.

I can't tell if you're being serious when you call Trump Fuhrer. But yea, their similar personalities will probably help relations. But I imagine the Philippines are playing the US and China against each other for the best possible deal.

Then there's Russia itself. If the U.S. stops making a big fuss about Crimea, then it's possible that Russia will stand down and make peace with the West. In this event, we won't have to worry about nuclear war with the only country on planet Earth that could obliterate us. Furthermore, they could help us maintain stability in the Middle East, fight terrorism, and even contain China (I get the feeling that Russia's gonna get fearful for its control over Siberia in a decade or two).

I don't imagine nuclear weapons coming into play with an invasion of Eastern Europe. Heck, I don't think England and France would use them if the Russians were invading their lands.

Putin would not be dumb enough to invade the UK. He knows we have nukes.

He would if he thought that the UK wouldn't use them. And why exactly would the UK start a nuclear war? It'd likely be liberated by NATO after a few years of fighting (just like with France during WWII), and even if not, isn't life under Russian occupation preferable to total annihilation?

He would be dumb to think a country with our history and prestige would mekely surrender. Moscow would be wiped off the face of the earth if Putin was dumb enough to try an invasion of the UK. 1066 was the last successful invasion of the UK, since then many powerful countries have tried and failed to seize our territory. We would see off any threats by whatever means neccessary. Surrendering and hoping allies will liberate you in the future is pointless and uncertain as well as humiliating. Simply make it clear any invasion will be met with a nuclear response.

But you said Russia might be planing on invading Europe? I don't think nuclear war was ever really considered a threat. MAD is still in effect. As for letting Russia in the middle east we're already seeing tension. Russia is attacking US backed rebels instead of ISIS. And if we let Russia have more sway as I mentioned they may gain Turkish support by attacking US backed Kurds.

In a worst case scenario, the U.S. strips Russia of its array of traditional allies. In a worst case scenario, China invades and annexed half or 2/3ds of Russia. When you think about it, it's a pretty easy choice to make, and when China becomes strong enough to defeat Russia in a war I think Putin will likely seek Western protection.

Putin needs no western protection. He can simply threaten to obliterate China with his nuclear arsenal even if it's conventional army is much stronger than Russia's.

You forget that China also has nuclear weapons.

That's why nuclear weapons are good for international security. Nuclear armed nation's never invade each other because of the mutual risk of nuclear annihilation. Putin won't invade the UK and China won't invade Russia. There is absolutely no chance of these events happening. If nuclear weapons didn't exist the cold war would have been world war 3.

Also why would Russia help contain China when both are in the Shanghai Cooperation Org??

The U.S. sucks up to Saudi Arabia, despite its human rights issues, because to do so is necessary to preserve US interests in the Middle East, and its oil security.

He doesn't really need to "stand up" to them as long as he is willing to defend our NATO partners.

And Russia is no better with its interests. But Trump isn't going to stand up to Russia if he's going to appease Russian expansion.

Now that Turkey and The Philippines have supposedly regressed, the U.S. is reluctant to do the same with them. But the truth is, the U.S. can and it must. Trump is willing to do this, whereas Hillary (assuming that the Electoral College proves itself to be treacherous swine) is not. In this regard, at least, Trump will preserve our alliances. The "wild cards" will be handled. Recent developments suggest that Trump will commit to NATO, so Europe will probably suck it up, stick with the US, and wait out the next 4-8 years.

.. So you're saying Trump shouldn't be friendly with R
"I don't need experience.to knock you out. I'm a man. that's all I need to beat you and any woman."

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Chloe8
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11/26/2016 9:50:37 PM
Posted: 1 week ago
Cool. Here's what I would do: I would drop sanctions against Russia and then settle on the status of Crimea being a disputed territory. That is, the West would continue to recognise it as Ukrainian land, but it wouldn't make a big deal about the illegal Russian occupation.

I think it's pointless not recognizing Crimea as Russian territory. Not recognizing it serves no purpose other than fuel hostility. A majority of Crimean people want to be Russian anyway so I don't see any reason to pick a fightover this issue. There is no chance of Russia ever giving this territory back to Ukraine.

The U.S. would concentrate NATO forces in Central Europe and withdraw All forces from the Baltics, with the promise that NATO would not tolerate any Russian incursion on the sovereignty of the three countries in question.

It's a tricky issue. I think that is probably the best approach though as there are no perfect options and either way both sides are going to be uneasy and dissatisfied to an extent. Ideally relations should be improved to the extent both sides don't feel so threatened by the military presence of each other and territorial boundaries are respected.

In the event that Putin invaded the Baltics, NATO would begin a military campaign to liberate the Baltics, taking Kaliningrad in the process. After this point a permanent large NATO garrison would be positioned in the Baltics, and Russia would never get Kaliningrad back. All of its inhabitants would either be deported to Russia or forcibly sterilised. Then the land would be resettled by Poles and Lithuanians. Likewise, after such a Baltic war NATO would move to forcibly liberate Crimea and give it back to Ukraine.

Personally I don't think Putin will invade the Baltic states. I think it's extremely risky and has little reward. He is more likely to encourage ethnic Russians in the region to carry out a similar type of war to that in the donbass region of Ukraine, supplying the rebels with soldiers, military equipment, intelligence and money. He would then have NATO in a corner. Do they carry out military operations to clear these rebels so close to the Russian border?

That scenario gives Putin a chance to threaten NATO with a military response. Putin will want to be seen to be reacting to NATO aggression in defence of ethnic Russians as opposed to being an outright aggressor where he may provoke an all out war where nuclear annihilation becomes possible. I think NATO would back out of a military response in the face of a Russian threat and Putin will likely secure some kind of independent Russia aligned nation's in the Baltic states.

Will that happen? I think it's actually more likely than most people think. The all out invasion and war will never happen. Nuclear weapons make such encounters more or less impossible due to the likelihood of eventual escalation and the annihilation of the earth which is in no ones interest. Who gives a sh it about Estonia in Russia or the USA when Washington and Moscow could be wiped off the map.
"I don't need experience.to knock you out. I'm a man. that's all I need to beat you and any woman."

Fatihah, in his delusion that he could knock out any woman while bragging about being able to knock me out. An example of 7th century Islamic thinking inspired by his hero the paedophile Muhammad.
Skepsikyma
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11/27/2016 12:02:14 AM
Posted: 1 week ago
At 11/24/2016 4:05:54 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
In case you might not have heard, Turkey has recently threatened to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). This would put it at odds with its NATO allies, and perhaps lead to it exiting the North Atlantic Alliance.
The reason for this lies in the Turkish coup d'etat attempt earlier this year. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the president of Turkey, crushed the rebellion and instituted martial law over the country, imprisoning thousands.
The West has heavily denounced Erdogan's actions, and the U.S. is currently harbouring a Muslim cleric who was allegedly behind the coup. So, in response, Erdogan is now trying to find an alternative to Turkey's traditional alignment with the US-led western order.
Donald Trump, a man who really doesn't give a crap about the situation in Turkey, may be just what we need to keep Turkey from straying.
This is important because Turkey is the second strongest member of NATO. Turkish support is perhaps vital to NATO's plans for containing Russia (and Iran). Furthermore, if we lose Turkey, it may actually partner with Russia one day in invading Europe.
On the other side of the world, earlier this year the Filipino people elected a man named Rodrigo Duterte to be their president. Duterte wages a bloody war on drugs; to date, nearly 5000 people have been killed and over 750,000 have "surrendered" to the authorities, subsequently being sent to rehabilitation centers where conditions are extremely rough.
Again, the world voices its supposed outrage over Duterte's actions, and so Duterte now plans on aligning with Russia and China. Who can stop this from happening? That yuuge-handed fuhrer, who probably admires what Duterte is doing and most certainly will strike a conciliatory tone with the man. For the record, the U.S. needs The Philippines to serve as a launchpad for operations in East Asia if it ever hopes to defend Taiwan and contain China.
Then there's Russia itself. If the U.S. stops making a big fuss about Crimea, then it's possible that Russia will stand down and make peace with the West. In this event, we won't have to worry about nuclear war with the only country on planet Earth that could obliterate us. Furthermore, they could help us maintain stability in the Middle East, fight terrorism, and even contain China (I get the feeling that Russia's gonna get fearful for its control over Siberia in a decade or two).

The U.S. sucks up to Saudi Arabia, despite its human rights issues, because to do so is necessary to preserve US interests in the Middle East, and its oil security.
Now that Turkey and The Philippines have supposedly regressed, the U.S. is reluctant to do the same with them. But the truth is, the U.S. can and it must. Trump is willing to do this, whereas Hillary (assuming that the Electoral College proves itself to be treacherous swine) is not. In this regard, at least, Trump will preserve our alliances. The "wild cards" will be handled. Recent developments suggest that Trump will commit to NATO, so Europe will probably suck it up, stick with the US, and wait out the next 4-8 years.

Trump is truly the man of the hour, and my prior reason for voting for Hillary was dumb. If I could turn back the clock, I would vote for Donald J. Trump.

If Turkey doesn't respond to diplomatic overtures, we need to recommence our funding of the Greek Navy, and hold a pan-Kurdish summit, including the PKK. Having the Bosporus and Dardanelles in the hands a Chinese-Russia-aligned government is a fvcking nightmare for us. It means that any Naval conflict with Russia possibly moves into the Mediterranean if Greece cannot contain it in the Aegean. It means possible reignition of the Cyprus conflict, turning it into a flashpoint. We can cause a lot of harm in Turkey, and that needs to be made explicitly clear. This is why concerns over humanitarian sh!t always turns out to be retarded in the end. Who cares about Erdogan's domestic policy; we need to follow a realist framework.

As for Siberia, China tends to depend on demographic drift to build influence. It used that tactic in Manchuria, Jiangxi, and Tibet with much success. If I were Russia, I would be VERY worried about Chinese investment in Eastern Siberia, as that region's Russian population is declining and there is already an ethnic Han presence.

Geez, it's almost as if a robust Russia may have countered a rising China instead of becoming codependent. It sure is a great thing that we reignited the Cold War for no fvcking reason.
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