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Climate prediction

sadolite
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2/20/2014 7:46:34 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
The Farmers Almanac predicts the climate better than the CPC

"Not one of our better forecasts," admits Mike Halpert, the Climate Prediction Center"s acting director. The center grades itself on what it calls the Heidke skill score, which ranges from 100 (perfection) to -50 (monkeys throwing darts would have done better). October"s forecast for the three-month period of November through January came in at -22. Truth be told, the September prediction for October-December was slightly worse, at -23.

Bwahahahahahah
It's not your views that divide us, it's what you think my views should be that divides us.

If you think I will give up my rights and forsake social etiquette to make you "FEEL" better you are sadly mistaken

If liberal democrats would just stop shooting people gun violence would drop by 90%
sadolite
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2/20/2014 7:47:19 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 2/20/2014 7:46:34 PM, sadolite wrote:
The Farmers Almanac predicts the climate better than the CPC

"Not one of our better forecasts," admits Mike Halpert, the Climate Prediction Center"s acting director. The center grades itself on what it calls the Heidke skill score, which ranges from 100 (perfection) to -50 (monkeys throwing darts would have done better). October"s forecast for the three-month period of November through January came in at -22. Truth be told, the September prediction for October-December was slightly worse, at -23.

Bwahahahahahah

Oh ya, source http://www.businessweek.com...
It's not your views that divide us, it's what you think my views should be that divides us.

If you think I will give up my rights and forsake social etiquette to make you "FEEL" better you are sadly mistaken

If liberal democrats would just stop shooting people gun violence would drop by 90%
sadolite
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2/21/2014 8:01:32 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
wow not a single response, truth hurts some times i guess
It's not your views that divide us, it's what you think my views should be that divides us.

If you think I will give up my rights and forsake social etiquette to make you "FEEL" better you are sadly mistaken

If liberal democrats would just stop shooting people gun violence would drop by 90%
slo1
Posts: 4,343
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2/22/2014 3:35:49 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 2/21/2014 8:01:32 PM, sadolite wrote:
wow not a single response, truth hurts some times i guess

Probably because it is not very meaningful to look at an isolated segment of time in whether forecasting accuracy. What is their average score over time, how far does this winter's prediction deviate, etc?

On another note, January on a whole was 4th warmest recorded. Like last year when we were balmy early winter and Siberia was crazy cold. This year France and China are warmer than normal.
GarretKadeDupre
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2/22/2014 3:48:54 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 2/21/2014 8:01:32 PM, sadolite wrote:
wow not a single response, truth hurts some times i guess

I've been fascinated by the Almanac ever since I found out about how amazing their predictions are. They've been using the same formula for over 100 years, although it's been updated with new technology. I read the formula is held in a secure glass box in a room surrounded by armed guards.

If someone manages to break in and steal it, I wouldn't mind reading it, just out of curiosity =)
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sadolite
Posts: 8,838
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2/22/2014 4:05:32 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 2/22/2014 3:35:49 PM, slo1 wrote:
At 2/21/2014 8:01:32 PM, sadolite wrote:
wow not a single response, truth hurts some times i guess

Probably because it is not very meaningful to look at an isolated segment of time in whether forecasting accuracy. What is their average score over time, how far does this winter's prediction deviate, etc?

On another note, January on a whole was 4th warmest recorded. Like last year when we were balmy early winter and Siberia was crazy cold. This year France and China are warmer than normal.

How do you explain the farmers almanac being correct 80% of the time since it's first publication but independent studies write it off as by chance they got it right while Climate models have not been around long enough to be even tested for accuracy but are only tested by "hind forecasting" and therefore their results will obviously be accurate for the future? Real scientific stuff here.
It's not your views that divide us, it's what you think my views should be that divides us.

If you think I will give up my rights and forsake social etiquette to make you "FEEL" better you are sadly mistaken

If liberal democrats would just stop shooting people gun violence would drop by 90%
slo1
Posts: 4,343
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2/22/2014 4:10:55 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 2/22/2014 4:05:32 PM, sadolite wrote:
At 2/22/2014 3:35:49 PM, slo1 wrote:
At 2/21/2014 8:01:32 PM, sadolite wrote:
wow not a single response, truth hurts some times i guess

Probably because it is not very meaningful to look at an isolated segment of time in whether forecasting accuracy. What is their average score over time, how far does this winter's prediction deviate, etc?

On another note, January on a whole was 4th warmest recorded. Like last year when we were balmy early winter and Siberia was crazy cold. This year France and China are warmer than normal.

How do you explain the farmers almanac being correct 80% of the time since it's first publication but independent studies write it off as by chance they got it right while Climate models have not been around long enough to be even tested for accuracy but are only tested by "hind forecasting" and therefore their results will obviously be accurate for the future? Real scientific stuff here.

They use the fuzziness of caterpillars and thickness of muskrat pelts. I don't know. How do you know that the measure of accuracy between the two groups is apples to apples. When you say the FA was 80% correct. What exactly does that mean?
slo1
Posts: 4,343
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2/22/2014 4:12:11 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
I guess this map of the Cold and Wet forecast of CA is accurate, seeing how they still in the grips of extreme drought. 80% accurate my arse.

http://www.almanac.com...
sadolite
Posts: 8,838
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2/22/2014 4:19:07 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 2/22/2014 4:10:55 PM, slo1 wrote:
At 2/22/2014 4:05:32 PM, sadolite wrote:
At 2/22/2014 3:35:49 PM, slo1 wrote:
At 2/21/2014 8:01:32 PM, sadolite wrote:
wow not a single response, truth hurts some times i guess

Probably because it is not very meaningful to look at an isolated segment of time in whether forecasting accuracy. What is their average score over time, how far does this winter's prediction deviate, etc?

On another note, January on a whole was 4th warmest recorded. Like last year when we were balmy early winter and Siberia was crazy cold. This year France and China are warmer than normal.

How do you explain the farmers almanac being correct 80% of the time since it's first publication but independent studies write it off as by chance they got it right while Climate models have not been around long enough to be even tested for accuracy but are only tested by "hind forecasting" and therefore their results will obviously be accurate for the future? Real scientific stuff here.

They use the fuzziness of caterpillars and thickness of muskrat pelts. I don't know. How do you know that the measure of accuracy between the two groups is apples to apples. When you say the FA was 80% correct. What exactly does that mean?

It means they have been predicting the climate accurately since 1818 at a 80% accuracy rate. You know, so farmers know what to plant each year.
It's not your views that divide us, it's what you think my views should be that divides us.

If you think I will give up my rights and forsake social etiquette to make you "FEEL" better you are sadly mistaken

If liberal democrats would just stop shooting people gun violence would drop by 90%
sadolite
Posts: 8,838
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2/22/2014 4:25:11 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 2/22/2014 4:12:11 PM, slo1 wrote:
I guess this map of the Cold and Wet forecast of CA is accurate, seeing how they still in the grips of extreme drought. 80% accurate my arse.

http://www.almanac.com...

The farmers almanac does not predict localized weather it predicts climate for the entire nation. You know over all, an average of temps. Climate modelers could only dream of being 80% right. They have been 100% wrong for the last 17 years. All predict warming, no appreciable warming at all.

http://wattsupwiththat.com...
It's not your views that divide us, it's what you think my views should be that divides us.

If you think I will give up my rights and forsake social etiquette to make you "FEEL" better you are sadly mistaken

If liberal democrats would just stop shooting people gun violence would drop by 90%
slo1
Posts: 4,343
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2/23/2014 10:22:34 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 2/22/2014 4:25:11 PM, sadolite wrote:
At 2/22/2014 4:12:11 PM, slo1 wrote:
I guess this map of the Cold and Wet forecast of CA is accurate, seeing how they still in the grips of extreme drought. 80% accurate my arse.

http://www.almanac.com...

The farmers almanac does not predict localized weather it predicts climate for the entire nation. You know over all, an average of temps. Climate modelers could only dream of being 80% right. They have been 100% wrong for the last 17 years. All predict warming, no appreciable warming at all.

http://wattsupwiththat.com...

You are going to have to show me what their prediction is and how they measure whether it is right or wrong.

Below is from their very own site. It is very clear they don't measure their accuracy. Anecdotal evidence clearly is no scientific basis of an accuracy rate.

http://www.farmersalmanac.com...
Though weather forecasting, and long-range forecasting in particular, remains an inexact science, many longtime Almanac followers claim that our forecasts are 80% to 85% accurate.

I also showed you how they were completely off in CA where they forecasted Wet. Like I said 80% my arse.
slo1
Posts: 4,343
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2/23/2014 10:31:41 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
This entire post is just an ill-conceived attempt to discredit actual climate scientists should have periods in their mid term forecasts which are off and periods which are right on.

That is the thing with weather, anything longer than a week and looking a few seasons ahead can not be predicted with much accuracy. That however does not mean we should not continue to try to develop better models.

Farmers almanac is not better than these models, and a few farmers claiming 80% accuracy is clearly nothing to hang a hat on. They don't even measure their own accuracy and the real weather scientists do with complex system so they can judge when they are right and wrong.
sadolite
Posts: 8,838
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2/23/2014 10:39:15 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 2/23/2014 10:22:34 AM, slo1 wrote:
At 2/22/2014 4:25:11 PM, sadolite wrote:
At 2/22/2014 4:12:11 PM, slo1 wrote:
I guess this map of the Cold and Wet forecast of CA is accurate, seeing how they still in the grips of extreme drought. 80% accurate my arse.

http://www.almanac.com...

The farmers almanac does not predict localized weather it predicts climate for the entire nation. You know over all, an average of temps. Climate modelers could only dream of being 80% right. They have been 100% wrong for the last 17 years. All predict warming, no appreciable warming at all.

http://wattsupwiththat.com...

You are going to have to show me what their prediction is and how they measure whether it is right or wrong.

Below is from their very own site. It is very clear they don't measure their accuracy. Anecdotal evidence clearly is no scientific basis of an accuracy rate.

http://www.farmersalmanac.com...
Though weather forecasting, and long-range forecasting in particular, remains an inexact science, many longtime Almanac followers claim that our forecasts are 80% to 85% accurate.

I also showed you how they were completely off in CA where they forecasted Wet. Like I said 80% my arse.

You are missing the point completely. The Almanac is better at predicting the climate than the CPC even if was correct less than 80% of the time. Hell even if it was correct 30% of the time. It still has a better prediction rate than the CPC. In other words it would be better to look at the almanac than to look to the CPC for how the climate will be from year to year. The CPC is a colassal waste of tax payer money and is completely ineffective at doing what they are supposed to do. A farmer would have to be a fool to look to the CPC for climate forecasts to determine which crops should be planted.
It's not your views that divide us, it's what you think my views should be that divides us.

If you think I will give up my rights and forsake social etiquette to make you "FEEL" better you are sadly mistaken

If liberal democrats would just stop shooting people gun violence would drop by 90%
slo1
Posts: 4,343
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2/23/2014 10:49:48 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 2/23/2014 10:39:15 AM, sadolite wrote:
At 2/23/2014 10:22:34 AM, slo1 wrote:
At 2/22/2014 4:25:11 PM, sadolite wrote:
At 2/22/2014 4:12:11 PM, slo1 wrote:
I guess this map of the Cold and Wet forecast of CA is accurate, seeing how they still in the grips of extreme drought. 80% accurate my arse.

http://www.almanac.com...

The farmers almanac does not predict localized weather it predicts climate for the entire nation. You know over all, an average of temps. Climate modelers could only dream of being 80% right. They have been 100% wrong for the last 17 years. All predict warming, no appreciable warming at all.

http://wattsupwiththat.com...

You are going to have to show me what their prediction is and how they measure whether it is right or wrong.

Below is from their very own site. It is very clear they don't measure their accuracy. Anecdotal evidence clearly is no scientific basis of an accuracy rate.

http://www.farmersalmanac.com...
Though weather forecasting, and long-range forecasting in particular, remains an inexact science, many longtime Almanac followers claim that our forecasts are 80% to 85% accurate.

I also showed you how they were completely off in CA where they forecasted Wet. Like I said 80% my arse.

You are missing the point completely. The Almanac is better at predicting the climate than the CPC even if was correct less than 80% of the time. Hell even if it was correct 30% of the time. It still has a better prediction rate than the CPC. In other words it would be better to look at the almanac than to look to the CPC for how the climate will be from year to year. The CPS is a colassal waste of tax payer money and is completely ineffective at doing what they are supposed to do. A farmer would have to be a fool to look to the CPC for climate forecasts to determine which crops should be planted.

You are missing the point. The almanac IS NOT 80% accurate and you don't really know which one is more accurate than the other.

Secondly, I can guarantee you that companies that have millions and billions of dollars by hedging and trading commodities DO NOT prefer to use the Farmers Almanac over other sources of long term forecasts.

Thirdly, farmers do not use the almanac to determine what to plant. They rotate crops and focus on a few crops that compliment each other from a rotational aspect.

This is just not a good way to attack the CPC.
sadolite
Posts: 8,838
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2/24/2014 5:26:08 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 2/23/2014 10:49:48 AM, slo1 wrote:
At 2/23/2014 10:39:15 AM, sadolite wrote:
At 2/23/2014 10:22:34 AM, slo1 wrote:
At 2/22/2014 4:25:11 PM, sadolite wrote:
At 2/22/2014 4:12:11 PM, slo1 wrote:
I guess this map of the Cold and Wet forecast of CA is accurate, seeing how they still in the grips of extreme drought. 80% accurate my arse.

http://www.almanac.com...

The farmers almanac does not predict localized weather it predicts climate for the entire nation. You know over all, an average of temps. Climate modelers could only dream of being 80% right. They have been 100% wrong for the last 17 years. All predict warming, no appreciable warming at all.

http://wattsupwiththat.com...

You are going to have to show me what their prediction is and how they measure whether it is right or wrong.

Below is from their very own site. It is very clear they don't measure their accuracy. Anecdotal evidence clearly is no scientific basis of an accuracy rate.

http://www.farmersalmanac.com...
Though weather forecasting, and long-range forecasting in particular, remains an inexact science, many longtime Almanac followers claim that our forecasts are 80% to 85% accurate.

I also showed you how they were completely off in CA where they forecasted Wet. Like I said 80% my arse.

You are missing the point completely. The Almanac is better at predicting the climate than the CPC even if was correct less than 80% of the time. Hell even if it was correct 30% of the time. It still has a better prediction rate than the CPC. In other words it would be better to look at the almanac than to look to the CPC for how the climate will be from year to year. The CPS is a colassal waste of tax payer money and is completely ineffective at doing what they are supposed to do. A farmer would have to be a fool to look to the CPC for climate forecasts to determine which crops should be planted.

You are missing the point. The almanac IS NOT 80% accurate and you don't really know which one is more accurate than the other.

Secondly, I can guarantee you that companies that have millions and billions of dollars by hedging and trading commodities DO NOT prefer to use the Farmers Almanac over other sources of long term forecasts.

Thirdly, farmers do not use the almanac to determine what to plant. They rotate crops and focus on a few crops that compliment each other from a rotational aspect.

This is just not a good way to attack the CPC.

The readers and followers of the almanac say it is 80% to 85% accurate. They are all lying?
It's not your views that divide us, it's what you think my views should be that divides us.

If you think I will give up my rights and forsake social etiquette to make you "FEEL" better you are sadly mistaken

If liberal democrats would just stop shooting people gun violence would drop by 90%
PotBelliedGeek
Posts: 4,298
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2/24/2014 6:35:03 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
Ya know, I was going to comment, but then I realized that I really don't have time to engage some yip yap hellbent on denying climate change.
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HUFFLEPUFF FOR LIFE!!!!!!!!!!!!
slo1
Posts: 4,343
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2/28/2014 8:47:03 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 2/24/2014 5:26:08 PM, sadolite wrote:
At 2/23/2014 10:49:48 AM, slo1 wrote:
At 2/23/2014 10:39:15 AM, sadolite wrote:
At 2/23/2014 10:22:34 AM, slo1 wrote:
At 2/22/2014 4:25:11 PM, sadolite wrote:
At 2/22/2014 4:12:11 PM, slo1 wrote:
I guess this map of the Cold and Wet forecast of CA is accurate, seeing how they still in the grips of extreme drought. 80% accurate my arse.

http://www.almanac.com...

The farmers almanac does not predict localized weather it predicts climate for the entire nation. You know over all, an average of temps. Climate modelers could only dream of being 80% right. They have been 100% wrong for the last 17 years. All predict warming, no appreciable warming at all.

http://wattsupwiththat.com...

You are going to have to show me what their prediction is and how they measure whether it is right or wrong.

Below is from their very own site. It is very clear they don't measure their accuracy. Anecdotal evidence clearly is no scientific basis of an accuracy rate.

http://www.farmersalmanac.com...
Though weather forecasting, and long-range forecasting in particular, remains an inexact science, many longtime Almanac followers claim that our forecasts are 80% to 85% accurate.

I also showed you how they were completely off in CA where they forecasted Wet. Like I said 80% my arse.

You are missing the point completely. The Almanac is better at predicting the climate than the CPC even if was correct less than 80% of the time. Hell even if it was correct 30% of the time. It still has a better prediction rate than the CPC. In other words it would be better to look at the almanac than to look to the CPC for how the climate will be from year to year. The CPS is a colassal waste of tax payer money and is completely ineffective at doing what they are supposed to do. A farmer would have to be a fool to look to the CPC for climate forecasts to determine which crops should be planted.

You are missing the point. The almanac IS NOT 80% accurate and you don't really know which one is more accurate than the other.

Secondly, I can guarantee you that companies that have millions and billions of dollars by hedging and trading commodities DO NOT prefer to use the Farmers Almanac over other sources of long term forecasts.

Thirdly, farmers do not use the almanac to determine what to plant. They rotate crops and focus on a few crops that compliment each other from a rotational aspect.

This is just not a good way to attack the CPC.

The readers and followers of the almanac say it is 80% to 85% accurate. They are all lying?

Yes, each and every one of them. Sorry, that was wrong. Let me rephrase that. Yes, that one guy who said it that one time is a liar.

Let me put it this way. What the almanac does is provide an over/under to the average temp and give an indication of moisture per week. It is just generic enough that if someone is not writing down temperatures and going back to measure how far off their prediction was, there is no possible way to get an accurate metric of how accurate it was.

It is the same methodology that people who speak to the dead or give fortune readings do.

My God man, just the fact that the almanac does not measure and publish their accuracy rate like the CPC does should tell you something!

One is hiding when they are wrong and the other has a process to show the world when they are wrong and you trust the one that hides it instead of the one that is transparent.

smh
sadolite
Posts: 8,838
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2/28/2014 4:13:35 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 2/28/2014 8:47:03 AM, slo1 wrote:
At 2/24/2014 5:26:08 PM, sadolite wrote:
At 2/23/2014 10:49:48 AM, slo1 wrote:
At 2/23/2014 10:39:15 AM, sadolite wrote:
At 2/23/2014 10:22:34 AM, slo1 wrote:
At 2/22/2014 4:25:11 PM, sadolite wrote:
At 2/22/2014 4:12:11 PM, slo1 wrote:
I guess this map of the Cold and Wet forecast of CA is accurate, seeing how they still in the grips of extreme drought. 80% accurate my arse.

http://www.almanac.com...

The farmers almanac does not predict localized weather it predicts climate for the entire nation. You know over all, an average of temps. Climate modelers could only dream of being 80% right. They have been 100% wrong for the last 17 years. All predict warming, no appreciable warming at all.

http://wattsupwiththat.com...

You are going to have to show me what their prediction is and how they measure whether it is right or wrong.

Below is from their very own site. It is very clear they don't measure their accuracy. Anecdotal evidence clearly is no scientific basis of an accuracy rate.

http://www.farmersalmanac.com...
Though weather forecasting, and long-range forecasting in particular, remains an inexact science, many longtime Almanac followers claim that our forecasts are 80% to 85% accurate.

I also showed you how they were completely off in CA where they forecasted Wet. Like I said 80% my arse.

You are missing the point completely. The Almanac is better at predicting the climate than the CPC even if was correct less than 80% of the time. Hell even if it was correct 30% of the time. It still has a better prediction rate than the CPC. In other words it would be better to look at the almanac than to look to the CPC for how the climate will be from year to year. The CPS is a colassal waste of tax payer money and is completely ineffective at doing what they are supposed to do. A farmer would have to be a fool to look to the CPC for climate forecasts to determine which crops should be planted.

You are missing the point. The almanac IS NOT 80% accurate and you don't really know which one is more accurate than the other.

Secondly, I can guarantee you that companies that have millions and billions of dollars by hedging and trading commodities DO NOT prefer to use the Farmers Almanac over other sources of long term forecasts.

Thirdly, farmers do not use the almanac to determine what to plant. They rotate crops and focus on a few crops that compliment each other from a rotational aspect.

This is just not a good way to attack the CPC.

The readers and followers of the almanac say it is 80% to 85% accurate. They are all lying?

Yes, each and every one of them. Sorry, that was wrong. Let me rephrase that. Yes, that one guy who said it that one time is a liar.

Let me put it this way. What the almanac does is provide an over/under to the average temp and give an indication of moisture per week. It is just generic enough that if someone is not writing down temperatures and going back to measure how far off their prediction was, there is no possible way to get an accurate metric of how accurate it was.

It is the same methodology that people who speak to the dead or give fortune readings do.

My God man, just the fact that the almanac does not measure and publish their accuracy rate like the CPC does should tell you something!

One is hiding when they are wrong and the other has a process to show the world when they are wrong and you trust the one that hides it instead of the one that is transparent.

smh

What is the accuracy rate of the CPC? Over all?

"The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) creates general temperature and precipitation outlooks up to one year in advance. Their forecasts only deal with the above or below normal expected temps or precipitation,"

"What the almanac does is provide an over/under to the average temp and give an indication of moisture per week."

Huh, sounds like the CPC has hijacked the Almanacs prediction methods doesn't it. Only the Almanac gets it right more often.
It's not your views that divide us, it's what you think my views should be that divides us.

If you think I will give up my rights and forsake social etiquette to make you "FEEL" better you are sadly mistaken

If liberal democrats would just stop shooting people gun violence would drop by 90%
RoyLatham
Posts: 4,488
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3/1/2014 11:36:38 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 2/22/2014 3:35:49 PM, slo1 wrote:
At 2/21/2014 8:01:32 PM, sadolite wrote:
wow not a single response, truth hurts some times i guess

Probably because it is not very meaningful to look at an isolated segment of time in whether forecasting accuracy. What is their average score over time, how far does this winter's prediction deviate, etc?

The climate predictions overall for the past 15 years has been wrong. The earth was supposed to warming, but the trend is stable, no increase or decrease. the predictions are below two sigma of chance in their prescribed accuracy.

The Farmer's Almanac gets its record from doing stuff like predicting snow in January. It always happens somewhere.