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Climate sensitivity to CO2 estimates

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1/10/2016 4:10:56 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
There are multiple estimates regarding the sensitivity of temperature rise to CO2. The "climate sensitivity" with respect to CO2 refers to the rise in equilibrium temperature with a corresponding rise in CO2 concentrations; the base climate sensitivity is measured as the global average temperature rise per doubling of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. What estimate do you find most compelling? According to me, the most convincing study was JD Annan's, using a Bayesian statistical approach, and the estimate was 3 degrees Celsius. It's a fairly high estimate, but the approach he used has been verified multiple times, and Annan is virtually the top climatologist today. Instinctively, I lean to estimates that seem more reasonable (e.g. Patrick Michaels' 1.6 degree Celsius estimate, and some other studies that don't use climate models), but I've heard some pretty compelling arguments for Annan's approach.
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