Total Posts:1|Showing Posts:1-1
Jump to topic:

Climate sensitivity to CO2 estimates

tejretics
Posts: 6,080
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
1/10/2016 4:10:56 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
There are multiple estimates regarding the sensitivity of temperature rise to CO2. The "climate sensitivity" with respect to CO2 refers to the rise in equilibrium temperature with a corresponding rise in CO2 concentrations; the base climate sensitivity is measured as the global average temperature rise per doubling of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. What estimate do you find most compelling? According to me, the most convincing study was JD Annan's, using a Bayesian statistical approach, and the estimate was 3 degrees Celsius. It's a fairly high estimate, but the approach he used has been verified multiple times, and Annan is virtually the top climatologist today. Instinctively, I lean to estimates that seem more reasonable (e.g. Patrick Michaels' 1.6 degree Celsius estimate, and some other studies that don't use climate models), but I've heard some pretty compelling arguments for Annan's approach.
"Where justice is denied, where poverty is enforced, where ignorance prevails, and where any one class is made to feel that society is an organized conspiracy to oppress, rob and degrade them, neither persons nor property will be safe." - Frederick Douglass