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 Posts: 18 Add as FriendChallenge to a DebateSend a Message 3/14/2016 9:15:03 AMPosted: 1 year agoI get eight heads in a row using an unbiased coin. Now, before I flip this coin one more time, tell me - is the probability for me to get a head (pun not intended) still 0.5?
 Posts: 2,939 Add as FriendChallenge to a DebateSend a Message 3/14/2016 9:20:38 AMPosted: 1 year agoAt 3/14/2016 9:15:03 AM, FillFueler wrote:I get eight heads in a row using an unbiased coin. Now, before I flip this coin one more time, tell me - is the probability for me to get a head (pun not intended) still 0.5?1st postOf course it is.
 Posts: 2,939 Add as FriendChallenge to a DebateSend a Message 3/14/2016 9:29:14 AMPosted: 1 year agoAt 3/14/2016 9:20:38 AM, Deb-8-A-Bull wrote:At 3/14/2016 9:15:03 AM, FillFueler wrote:I get eight heads in a row using an unbiased coin. Now, before I flip this coin one more time, tell me - is the probability for me to get a head (pun not intended) still 0.5?1st postOf course it is.You coin flipping technique can come into play, so it not the best way to look at it.
 Posts: 18 Add as FriendChallenge to a DebateSend a Message 3/14/2016 9:31:16 AMPosted: 1 year agoAt 3/14/2016 9:20:38 AM, Deb-8-A-Bull wrote:At 3/14/2016 9:15:03 AM, FillFueler wrote:I get eight heads in a row using an unbiased coin. Now, before I flip this coin one more time, tell me - is the probability for me to get a head (pun not intended) still 0.5?1st postOf course it is.Practically it is not. Hence the paradox.
 Posts: 2,939 Add as FriendChallenge to a DebateSend a Message 3/14/2016 9:33:45 AMPosted: 1 year agoAt 3/14/2016 9:31:16 AM, FillFueler wrote:At 3/14/2016 9:20:38 AM, Deb-8-A-Bull wrote:At 3/14/2016 9:15:03 AM, FillFueler wrote:I get eight heads in a row using an unbiased coin. Now, before I flip this coin one more time, tell me - is the probability for me to get a head (pun not intended) still 0.5?1st postOf course it is.Practically it is not. Hence the paradox.Don't be silly
 Posts: 6,033 Add as FriendChallenge to a DebateSend a Message 3/14/2016 9:34:32 AMPosted: 1 year agoAt 3/14/2016 9:15:03 AM, FillFueler wrote:Is the probability for me to get a head still 0.5?Welcome, FF.If the result of each coin toss is independent, then by definition the coin has no memory. Your chance of another head remains 0.5.You can test this empirically. Set out (say) sixteen coins in a line, flip each and separate the coins into a 'Heads' pile and a 'Tails' pile. Flip again, and separate each pile into two more piles, so that you now have four piles: H-H, H-T, T-H, T-H.Now see what happens to the coins in each pile when you flip a third time.
 Posts: 18 Add as FriendChallenge to a DebateSend a Message 3/14/2016 2:25:32 PMPosted: 1 year ago#7 EDIT :-:EXPERIMENTTake an unbiased coin. First, get 3 tails and NOW note whether or not the probability of getting a head or tail is still half the fourth time. Anyone can do this. As long as I am getting more heads than tails the fourth time after observing 3 tails , there is a problem.Note the observation you get fourth time. The only requirement for this experiment is the successful observation of head or tail 3 times in a row each time before flipping the coin fourth time.
 Posts: 430 Add as FriendChallenge to a DebateSend a Message 3/14/2016 2:47:57 PMPosted: 1 year agoYou are talking probability vs statistics. PROBABILITY that you will get heads is always the same.Best way to put it right there. +1