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Collape of the society

goldman
Posts: 12
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2/12/2012 3:12:30 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
Declining of the population is a serious problem for society. Here, I pick up Japan as an one example. Japanese population has been declining for the last two or three decade. The most striking reason is a declining birth rate. Many younger Japanese women have less interest in getting married these days. Therefore, birth rate is very low. It is expected that the declining population will bring about serious problems for Japanese society for many years to come. Firstly, many companies would face oversupply. Therefore, they are required to reduce labor power. This contributes to declining purchasing power of the general public. Secondly, many business firms would face declining sales-volime. This triggers financial difficulties. Therefore, they can not pay reasonable corporate tax for local and central government which are expected to accumulate for using welfare-benefits like health insurance, unempoyment benefit and pension distributed for the people.
Thirdly, the government would face serious lack in financial resources to fix social infrastructure like road, railroad, water system and telecommunication system what we call a life line. So, if the huge earthquake and natural disaster would happen, many cities in Japan would be seriously damaged and many people would lose their life. In particular, the former is expected to take place in 20 or 30 years away in Tokyo area. Forthly, Japan has few natural resources like oil, iron, coal and others. Japan must import those resources from foreign countries. However, many companies cannot buy them because of the shortage of financial resources. Therfore, production activities would be compelled to be closed or would be required to reduce the amount of production drastically. This means the collapse of manufacturing industry which is a locomotive of Japanese economy. Finally, Japan has neither military forces of their own nor nuclear weapons. Therefore, the neighboring countries like China and South Korea might try to conquer Japan to make it a colonial country of their own. Japan is already shrinking economically and socially caused by the declining population. When we take these situation into consideration, it seems to me that only one way which is left for Japan to survive is that Japan would become ``one province``of China or ``one state`` of the U.S. in the future. I invite comment on my opinion.
The_Fool_on_the_hill
Posts: 6,071
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2/12/2012 8:07:06 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 2/12/2012 3:12:30 AM, goldman wrote:
Declining of the population is a serious problem for society. Here, I pick up Japan as an one example. Japanese population has been declining for the last two or three decade. The most striking reason is a declining birth rate. Many younger Japanese women have less interest in getting married these days. Therefore, birth rate is very low. It is expected that the declining population will bring about serious problems for Japanese society for many years to come. Firstly, many companies would face oversupply. Therefore, they are required to reduce labor power. This contributes to declining purchasing power of the general public. Secondly, many business firms would face declining sales-volime. This triggers financial difficulties. Therefore, they can not pay reasonable corporate tax for local and central government which are expected to accumulate for using welfare-benefits like health insurance, unempoyment benefit and pension distributed for the people.
Thirdly, the government would face serious lack in financial resources to fix social infrastructure like road, railroad, water system and telecommunication system what we call a life line. So, if the huge earthquake and natural disaster would happen, many cities in Japan would be seriously damaged and many people would lose their life. In particular, the former is expected to take place in 20 or 30 years away in Tokyo area. Forthly, Japan has few natural resources like oil, iron, coal and others. Japan must import those resources from foreign countries. However, many companies cannot buy them because of the shortage of financial resources. Therfore, production activities would be compelled to be closed or would be required to reduce the amount of production drastically. This means the collapse of manufacturing industry which is a locomotive of Japanese economy. Finally, Japan has neither military forces of their own nor nuclear weapons. Therefore, the neighboring countries like China and South Korea might try to conquer Japan to make it a colonial country of their own. Japan is already shrinking economically and socially caused by the declining population. When we take these situation into consideration, it seems to me that only one way which is left for Japan to survive is that Japan would become ``one province``of China or ``one state`` of the U.S. in the future. I invite comment on my opinion.

Its funny was thinking of these but its much more easier for canada to absorb them.. ANd they would much rather come here. and we are more likely to accept them we have more land, we don't FORCE ASSIMILATION, we dpn't have any enemies education is soaring. Canadan is vast with resources and lots of quality land. United states are in self destruct mode running out of water fast.. education is just getting worse and worse, and fundemtalism and religion is increasing. Which probably is a direct relation. which affect rational negotiations and the efficiency of a society. We don't even trust you right now. The selfish idealology is just not working anymore and it won;t allow for a altrustic systems such as free health insurance ,The forced assimilation increases false consensus effect causeing group polarization. Americans are third world in the undersanding of evolution and general understanding of science. THe crime rate is extreme. life quality is lower then most western countries. Social support is awful. racisem and homophobia are still extreme. Religion breeds enemy with other fundementist countries. Your dollar is going down and the population is the least informed about world issues yet probably the most opinionated. and has enemies all across the world. I don;t think japan is going to want be part of america.
"The bud disappears when the blossom breaks through, and we might say that the former is refuted by the latter; in the same way when the fruit comes, the blossom may be explained to be a false form of the plant's existence, for the fruit appears as its true nature in place of the blossom. These stages are not merely differentiated; they supplant one another as being incompatible with one another." G. W. F. HEGEL
PARADIGM_L0ST
Posts: 6,958
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2/12/2012 8:57:56 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
Finally, Japan has neither military forces of their own nor nuclear weapons. Therefore, the neighboring countries like China and South Korea might try to conquer Japan to make it a colonial country of their own.:

I agreed with most everything else you stated, but Japan does have a military. Of course they do. Secondly, anyone might try and conquer anyone else at any given time, but your conclusion at the end is not the answer.

Japan is already shrinking economically and socially caused by the declining population. When we take these situation into consideration, it seems to me that only one way which is left for Japan to survive is that Japan would become ``one province``of China or ``one state`` of the U.S. in the future. I invite comment on my opinion.:

Being absorbed into another state is not the answer. First of all, if Japan has little resources, what would the U.S. (or any other nation) gain by absorbing them besides more mouths to feed and more debt? Nothing. What would Japan gain through the assimilation? Nothing, except being told what to do by a bunch of foreigners who would treat them like secondclass citizens thousands of miles away. Japan still has thriving industries. While they aren't the titans of the technological industry like they were in the 80's and 90's, they aren't in any immediate danger. I really don't understand your alarmist position, especially when there are other nations in far worse conditions.
"Have you ever considered suicide? If not, please do." -- Mouthwash (to Inferno)
royalpaladin
Posts: 22,357
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2/12/2012 9:04:06 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 2/12/2012 8:57:56 AM, PARADIGM_L0ST wrote:
Finally, Japan has neither military forces of their own nor nuclear weapons. Therefore, the neighboring countries like China and South Korea might try to conquer Japan to make it a colonial country of their own.:

I agreed with most everything else you stated, but Japan does have a military. Of course they do. Secondly, anyone might try and conquer anyone else at any given time, but your conclusion at the end is not the answer.

Japan's military is almost nill . . . the U.S. provides a great deal of Japan's defensive capabilities for them.
Japan is already shrinking economically and socially caused by the declining population. When we take these situation into consideration, it seems to me that only one way which is left for Japan to survive is that Japan would become ``one province``of China or ``one state`` of the U.S. in the future. I invite comment on my opinion.:

Being absorbed into another state is not the answer. First of all, if Japan has little resources, what would the U.S. (or any other nation) gain by absorbing them besides more mouths to feed and more debt? Nothing. What would Japan gain through the assimilation? Nothing, except being told what to do by a bunch of foreigners who would treat them like secondclass citizens thousands of miles away. Japan still has thriving industries. While they aren't the titans of the technological industry like they were in the 80's and 90's, they aren't in any immediate danger. I really don't understand your alarmist position, especially when there are other nations in far worse conditions.
PARADIGM_L0ST
Posts: 6,958
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2/12/2012 9:15:45 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
Japan's military is almost nill:

Almost nil?? They are in the top 10, just behind France which has extensive capabilities.

http://www.globalfirepower.com...

the U.S. provides a great deal of Japan's defensive capabilities for them.:

The U.S. has the 7th Fleet stationed in Japan for forward operating deployments. If Japan came under attack, the U.S. would obviously respond because it has interests there.
"Have you ever considered suicide? If not, please do." -- Mouthwash (to Inferno)
RoyLatham
Posts: 4,488
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2/20/2012 11:41:58 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
Japan is leading indicator for what many societies will face. These are new problems that result from an aging demographic. I don't claim it will be easy, but society will adapt. One important change is to increase retirement age.

In Japan, companies are hiring back retired workers at half pay. Pensions make up the other half. Many workers quickly get bored with retirement and are eager to get back to work. Japan needs the experienced component of the work force. Nowadays, people not not get really "old" until about 75 on average. When Social Security began in the U.S., life expectancy was 67.

Another change is to universally switch to 401K style retirement plans. The money is then invested productively and provides much more income to retirees. The investment also boosts the economy. Ponzi schemes like Social Security are a disaster because they drain the younger generation to support the older, rather than having the older independent and self-sustaining. Capital can keep working even when people cannot perform labor.

I think other changes are in store. Perhaps there will be a trend to reunify families or to form family-like social groups through some new mechanism. I hope it's not facebook.
Indophile
Posts: 1,414
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2/20/2012 1:04:44 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 2/12/2012 3:12:30 AM, goldman wrote:
Declining of the population is a serious problem for society. Here, I pick up Japan as an one example. Japanese population has been declining for the last two or three decade. The most striking reason is a declining birth rate. Many younger Japanese women have less interest in getting married these days. Therefore, birth rate is very low. It is expected that the declining population will bring about serious problems for Japanese society for many years to come. Firstly, many companies would face oversupply. Therefore, they are required to reduce labor power. This contributes to declining purchasing power of the general public. Secondly, many business firms would face declining sales-volime. This triggers financial difficulties. Therefore, they can not pay reasonable corporate tax for local and central government which are expected to accumulate for using welfare-benefits like health insurance, unempoyment benefit and pension distributed for the people.
Thirdly, the government would face serious lack in financial resources to fix social infrastructure like road, railroad, water system and telecommunication system what we call a life line. So, if the huge earthquake and natural disaster would happen, many cities in Japan would be seriously damaged and many people would lose their life. In particular, the former is expected to take place in 20 or 30 years away in Tokyo area. Forthly, Japan has few natural resources like oil, iron, coal and others. Japan must import those resources from foreign countries. However, many companies cannot buy them because of the shortage of financial resources. Therfore, production activities would be compelled to be closed or would be required to reduce the amount of production drastically. This means the collapse of manufacturing industry which is a locomotive of Japanese economy. Finally, Japan has neither military forces of their own nor nuclear weapons. Therefore, the neighboring countries like China and South Korea might try to conquer Japan to make it a colonial country of their own. Japan is already shrinking economically and socially caused by the declining population. When we take these situation into consideration, it seems to me that only one way which is left for Japan to survive is that Japan would become ``one province``of China or ``one state`` of the U.S. in the future. I invite comment on my opinion.

How about encouraging immigration? I assume there'd be lots of people in other countries that'd be more than willing to go to work in Japan.
You will say that I don't really know you
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goldman
Posts: 12
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2/23/2012 2:23:12 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 2/12/2012 3:12:30 AM, goldman wrote:
Declining of the population is a serious problem for society. Here, I pick up Japan as an one example. Japanese population has been declining for the last two or three decade. The most striking reason is a declining birth rate. Many younger Japanese women have less interest in getting married these days. Therefore, birth rate is very low. It is expected that the declining population will bring about serious problems for Japanese society for many years to come. Firstly, many companies would face oversupply. Therefore, they are required to reduce labor power. This contributes to declining purchasing power of the general public. Secondly, many business firms would face declining sales-volime. This triggers financial difficulties. Therefore, they can not pay reasonable corporate tax for local and central government which are expected to accumulate for using welfare-benefits like health insurance, unempoyment benefit and pension distributed for the people.
Thirdly, the government would face serious lack in financial resources to fix social infrastructure like road, railroad, water system and telecommunication system what we call a life line. So, if the huge earthquake and natural disaster would happen, many cities in Japan would be seriously damaged and many people would lose their life. In particular, the former is expected to take place in 20 or 30 years away in Tokyo area. Forthly, Japan has few natural resources like oil, iron, coal and others. Japan must import those resources from foreign countries. However, many companies cannot buy them because of the shortage of financial resources. Therfore, production activities would be compelled to be closed or would be required to reduce the amount of production drastically. This means the collapse of manufacturing industry which is a locomotive of Japanese economy. Finally, Japan has neither military forces of their own nor nuclear weapons. Therefore, the neighboring countries like China and South Korea might try to conquer Japan to make it a colonial country of their own. Japan is already shrinking economically and socially caused by the declining population. When we take these situation into consideration, it seems to me that only one way which is left for Japan to survive is that Japan would become ``one province``of China or ``one state`` of the U.S. in the future. I invite comment on my opinion.
goldman
Posts: 12
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2/23/2012 3:07:21 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
Indophile, thank you for reading my opinion. I understand that introducing immigration into Japan is a good idea for coping with the declining population.
However, in my opinion there are number of problems. Firstly, as you know Japan is an island country. Therefore, most of the Japanese people are not accustomed to communicating with foreigners who are different in way of life, culture, values and languages. Probably, many immigrants would use English as a means of communication. Therefore, most of the Japanese people would find it difficult to make themselves understood in English. They are taught English not as a means of communication with people of the world but as a subject for the entrance examination for high school or universities. Secondly, it would be difficult for many immigrants to find a job. First reason is that domestic market is shrinking with the speed that Japan has never experienced since the end of World War Second. Therefore, many Japanese companies are introducing the personnel policy which aims at reducing labor-force. The second reason is that the first reason and the revaluation of Japanese currency(yen) force many companies to transfer manufacturing facilities to low-waged countries or to the newly emerging countries like Vietnam, Brazil and India where the emergence of the middle-class would be expected in the near future. From above mentioned arguments, there are hurdles for Japan to introduce many immigrants.
RoyLatham
Posts: 4,488
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2/23/2012 1:20:13 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 2/23/2012 3:07:21 AM, goldman wrote:
... there are hurdles for Japan to introduce many immigrants.

The problem in Japan is a special case in several ways. Japan has eased immigration a bit, with the result of introducing a crime problem. The Japanese system is based upon being monocultural. As part of the citizenship process, the government inspects your fridge to see that you are really eating Japanese food!

However, the current system is that women typically only work for a few years, then they get married and leave the workforce forever. That means they have a large pool of untapped labor. That's probably a better avenue than immigration. Japan once had a system of lifetime jobs. that vanished with changing times, so change is possible. Right now, Japan has a problem with too few jobs, not labor shortages.

But there is nothing in economic theory that demands an ever-growing population. Switzerland does fine with a population growth of 0.7%. Other countries with population stability or very slow growth are Norway, The Netherlands, the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary, and Finland. The do as well or better than countries with growing populations.