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Is Luck still #1?

Ore_Ele
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11/15/2011 11:55:40 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
So Luck's luck has run out (I've been waiting to say that). The man that seemed to be the obvious choice for the Heisman and #1 draft pick is starting to fall apart. And others, who had rocky starts are starting to come together to out perform him.

Currently, Andrew Luck is sitting at #5 for QB rankings. When it comes to total yards, he's fallen to #19, and at passing percentage, he is at #8.

We'll look at 3 other QBs in particular, Case Keenum (#11 Houston), Brandon Weedon (#2 Oklahoma State), and Russell Wilson (#17 Wisconsin).

Let's first look at Luck [1]. He is currently 221 for 313 (70.6% completion) for 2695 yards with 29 TDs and 7 Picks. He is only getting 8.61 yards per pass attempt. The numbers show that he is not so hot when it comes to pressure. For example, when Standford is winning by at least 8 points, he is 87 for 118 (73.7% completion) with 9.66 yards per pass attempt, and 21 TDs and NO Picks. When his team is winning by 7 points or less (or tied or losing), he is only 134 for 195 (68.7% completion) with 7.97 yards per pass attempt and only 8 TDs (despite having 65% more pass attempts) and 7 picks. Clearly, he is only good when the game is not on the line.

Next, let's jump to Keenum [2]. He is the highest ranked QB out there. Of course, a big difference which will greatly effect his drafting, is that he has not played a ranked team since 2009. While Andrew has played 3 this year alone. But, performances can still be looked at. He is 279 for 376 (74.2% completion) for 3951 yards (10.51 yards per attempt) and 37 TDs to 3 picks. However, like Luck, he has problems when the game is close (less than 8 points winning). He is only 154 for 220 (70.0% completion, compared to 80.1% when winning by at least 8 points. This is a 10.1 point difference, compared to Luck's 5.0 point difference). Like Luck, all of his picks are when his team is winning by less than 8 (or tied or losing), though he is still 11 TDs to 3 picks, which Luck is 8 TDs to 7 picks. A big thing is the yards per attempt. When winning (by 8 or more), Keenum averages 13.19 yards per attempt, otherwise it is only 8.60 yards per attempt. This is a 5.59 yard difference, compared to Luck's 1.69 yard difference.

So let's look at Wilson [3]. Like Luck, he is on a team that has a VERY good run game. As we all know, the run greatly helps to establish the pass. Because of this run game, Wilson also has few pass attempts compared to others (even compared to Luck). He is only 160 of 218 (a 73.4% completion) with 2416 yards (11.08 ypa) with 25 TDs and 3 Picks. However, Wilson (who has lost 2 games, to Luck's 1) has done far better under preasure. When he is winning, he is 68 for 93 (73.1% completion) with 1043 yards (11.22 ypa) and 12 TDs and 2 picks. But when they are not winning big (8 or more points), he is 92 for 125 (73.6%, he has a higher pass percent when the game is on the line, rather than a blowout) for 1373 yards (10.98 ypa, only 0.24 yard difference, to Luck's 1.69) and 13 TDs with only 1 pick. While Luck has a bad habbit of throwing almost as many picks as TDs when the game is close, Wilson actually plays far better when the game is close.

Last, we're gonna look at Weeden [4]. Weeden is similar to Luck in that he typically makes shorter passes, with only an 8.49 ypa (to Luck's 8.61 ypa). But he is 313 for 428 (73.1% completion) for 3635 yards with 31 TDs and 9 picks. But the differences emerge when you continue to look at stats of when the game is close. When winning, he is 144 for 199 (72.4%) with 1758 yards (8.83 ypa) with 22 TDs and 7 picks. When the game is close (or they are losing), he is 169 for 229 (73.8%, 1.4% higher, whereas Luck was 5.0% lower) with 1877 yards (8.20 ypa, which is a 0.63 yard difference to Luck's 1.69), but he has 9 TDs to 2 picks. We can also see that Weeden has not thrown a 4th quarter pick, and Weeden has played against 3 ranked teams this year (just like Stanford), so that cannot be used as against him.

We can also see with Luck, that he is doing worse and worse. He through 11 TDs and 1 pick in his first 4 games. He's thrown 11 TDs and 4 picks in his last 4. His completion percent dropped 1.7% over those sections, and his ypa dropped from 9.04 to 7.39 (1.65 yard drop). Weeden has done far better. From 10 TDs with 6 picks in his first 4 games, to 15 TDs with 3 picks in his last 4 games. From 8.34 ypa in first 4, to 9.15 in last 4 (completion rate remained mostly level, dropped a little from 74.3% to 73.8%).

Another thing to look at is what teams are going to be getting that #1 draft pick spot? They are the teams that SUCK monkey gonads (sorry Colts, you do). They are the teams that, even with a rising star quarterback, will find themselves in a bunch of close games and behind. So it should be very important to them to choose a QB that is going to do well under preasure.

Luck has shown, that under preasure, he makes shorter passes, more incompletions, and a lot of picks (8 TDs to 7 Picks when not winning by 8 or more points). Luck has also shown that as the season goes on, he gets worse. Weeden and Wilson have both shown that they do well (if not better) when things are close. And with big games coming up, including bowl games (Weeden will play #5 OU in 2 weeks, and will likely also be playing in the BCS championship).

If Luck continues his trend downwards, and Weeden continues his trend upwards, and Wilson remains constant (or improves), I'd expect to see Weeden take #1 QB pick and even see Luck fall behind Wilson (though that will be heavily factored by how Luck and Wilson do in their Bowl games, but the chances are very real).

We can even see now that the Heismen awards are getting dang close [5] (note that Weeden actually has the most 1st place votes, Luck is only winning because he has more 4th place votes than anyone else. Not really a good sign going down the stretch).

[1] http://espn.go.com...
[2] http://espn.go.com...
[3] http://espn.go.com...
[4] http://espn.go.com...
[5] http://espn.go.com...
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
Danielle
Posts: 21,330
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11/15/2011 12:00:05 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
Keep in mind that college play is much different than NFL play. That's why some QBs who don't do SO superb in college can do awesome in the pros and vice versa. Look at Tim Tebow who excelled in college but who everyone continues to doubt in the pros (and who hasn't done so hot, whereas he led Florida pretty much all the way). Then you've got Drew Brees who was drafted in the 2nd round at pick 32, yet is one of the best QBs in the league. Luck apparently possesses the stuff of NFL QBs even if he doesn't do too phenomenal in the college system. He still sits at the top in terms of scout rankings and whatnot, and at this point his name alone should carry him pretty far.
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Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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11/15/2011 12:26:31 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/15/2011 12:00:05 PM, Danielle wrote:
Keep in mind that college play is much different than NFL play. That's why some QBs who don't do SO superb in college can do awesome in the pros and vice versa. Look at Tim Tebow who excelled in college but who everyone continues to doubt in the pros (and who hasn't done so hot, whereas he led Florida pretty much all the way). Then you've got Drew Brees who was drafted in the 2nd round at pick 32, yet is one of the best QBs in the league. Luck apparently possesses the stuff of NFL QBs even if he doesn't do too phenomenal in the college system. He still sits at the top in terms of scout rankings and whatnot, and at this point his name alone should carry him pretty far.

Most of that scouting was done back when Luck was playing a lot better. At the mid point of the season, Luck was basically un-contested for heismen, now it is very close. We also see that the issues of playing under pressure have really popped out in the last few games.

Looking over the ESPN draft predictions, I can't see any detail, because that is only for paying members. But they reference scout.com, which did rank Tebow as a 5-star draft pick in 2010, even though there was A LOT of talk about him being an issue with his different playing style.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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11/15/2011 4:42:33 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/15/2011 1:07:03 PM, Lasagna wrote:
Wasn't Brady pretty low in the draft as well?

Yes, round 6.
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BlackVoid
Posts: 9,170
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11/15/2011 5:02:44 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
I think your passing under pressure stats are a bit skewed. If a team has an 8 point lead or more, they are probably playing a team they are simply better than. Luck's team will be up 8+ points a lot when they're playing UL-lafayette. So yes he will have good numbers. He's playing poor defenses. Conversely, if his team is tied, losing, or only up 3, they are probably playing a team like USC or Oregon who can compete with their talent. Naturally, his numbers will be lower.
Ore_Ele
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11/22/2011 12:58:17 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/15/2011 5:02:44 PM, BlackVoid wrote:
I think your passing under pressure stats are a bit skewed. If a team has an 8 point lead or more, they are probably playing a team they are simply better than. Luck's team will be up 8+ points a lot when they're playing UL-lafayette. So yes he will have good numbers. He's playing poor defenses. Conversely, if his team is tied, losing, or only up 3, they are probably playing a team like USC or Oregon who can compete with their talent. Naturally, his numbers will be lower.

While that is true, what does that say about the QBs that perform just as good, if not better in those tough situations?
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
Ore_Ele
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11/22/2011 1:18:12 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
Right now hating the Ducks (well, have been since Saturday). I would rather them have continued to lose by 27 points, tuck their tail and go home (okay, that's probably just the emotions talking). But to come from 38-13 deficit with 22 unanswered points, making it 38-35, recoverying a fumble by Barkley on the Ducks own 14 yard line with 2:54 left. They marched down the field as they had done on the previous drives, only to miss a 37 yard game tieing field goal (and with the current momentum, the Ducks would have likely won in OT). Compare.

4th QTR

Passing
USC, 57 yards, 1 INT
UO, 103 yards

Rushing
USC, 30 yards, Fumble
UO, 113 yards, 2 TD

Total
USC, 87 yards, 2 turnovers
UO, 216 yards, 2 TDs (and one 2-point)

All to die on a field goal. Somewhat like BSU (also died on a FG), however BSU's kicker only had 3 attempts all season, UO's had 10 (granted he was only 6 for 10). So BSU's kicker has the inexperience cop out due to BSU never needing to kick field goals. UO's kicker has no such fall back. And he hadn't missed a field goal in the 30-39 yard range yet this season (was 3/3 in that range, and 2/5 in the 40-49 yard range).
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
Ore_Ele
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12/12/2011 11:14:04 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
No one mentioned it, but Luck failed to obtain the Heisman (being runner up again). Instead, it is taken by RG3, who made a very strong late surge in the season. I kinda feel bad for missing him in my original numbers, but at the time, he wasn't doing so well. But looking at his numbers now, he is clearly doing better than Luck.

3,998 passing yards to Luck's 3,170.
644 rushing yards to Luck's 153.
45 TDs (36 pass, 9 rush) to Luck's 37 TDs (35 pass, 2 rush).
6 Picks to Luck's 9.
192.3 rating to Luck's 167.5 rating.

Anyway, I believe the bowl games will have a major impact on whether or not Luck is still able to be the #1 draft pick.
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Lasagna
Posts: 2,440
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12/12/2011 7:00:53 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 12/12/2011 11:14:04 AM, Ore_Ele wrote:
No one mentioned it, but Luck failed to obtain the Heisman (being runner up again). Instead, it is taken by RG3, who made a very strong late surge in the season. I kinda feel bad for missing him in my original numbers, but at the time, he wasn't doing so well. But looking at his numbers now, he is clearly doing better than Luck.

3,998 passing yards to Luck's 3,170.
644 rushing yards to Luck's 153.
45 TDs (36 pass, 9 rush) to Luck's 37 TDs (35 pass, 2 rush).
6 Picks to Luck's 9.
192.3 rating to Luck's 167.5 rating.

Anyway, I believe the bowl games will have a major impact on whether or not Luck is still able to be the #1 draft pick.

I don't think anyone is looking to dump off their hopes for him (and by "anyone" I mean the Indianapolis Colts) over a bowl game. He is the most complete, NFL-ready QB in NCAA and he will go first pick guaranteed.
Rob
Rodney45
Posts: 1
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12/15/2011 6:01:16 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Just because he missed up only 3 games doesnt mean he isnt going to be #1 he has shown through all his career he can get it done they only lost 1 game and thats to Oregon and they are amazing even if andrew luck isnt first pick ill be excited if he goes to my chargers for backup philip rivers hell be good on any team i think hes going to be like aaron rodgers AARON RODGERS wasnt that good in college and he became a backup and he became the best qb today
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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12/15/2011 6:40:22 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 12/12/2011 7:00:53 PM, Lasagna wrote:
At 12/12/2011 11:14:04 AM, Ore_Ele wrote:
No one mentioned it, but Luck failed to obtain the Heisman (being runner up again). Instead, it is taken by RG3, who made a very strong late surge in the season. I kinda feel bad for missing him in my original numbers, but at the time, he wasn't doing so well. But looking at his numbers now, he is clearly doing better than Luck.

3,998 passing yards to Luck's 3,170.
644 rushing yards to Luck's 153.
45 TDs (36 pass, 9 rush) to Luck's 37 TDs (35 pass, 2 rush).
6 Picks to Luck's 9.
192.3 rating to Luck's 167.5 rating.

Anyway, I believe the bowl games will have a major impact on whether or not Luck is still able to be the #1 draft pick.

I don't think anyone is looking to dump off their hopes for him (and by "anyone" I mean the Indianapolis Colts) over a bowl game. He is the most complete, NFL-ready QB in NCAA and he will go first pick guaranteed.

It's not just the bowl game. His entire second half of the season has been below expectations. Starting this season, he was a shoo-in for the Heisman. After the first few weeks, we was still the shoo-in. Then he started performing poorly (by his expected standard). Last saturday, it was not longer even expected that he'd win. Everyone knew that he wouldn't.

Meanwhile, RG3 has allowed a team that is normally a nobody to compete on a serious level and go to a bowl game. Baylor, in 2007 had a pitiful 0-8 in confrence record. In 2008, the confrence record was up to 2-6, but the 2 non-confrence wins came against NW State and Washington State (who themselves were 2-11 that year with meaningless wins). Moving to 2009, for RG3's first three games (before he was injured), he took them to 2 - 1, but they finished the rest of the season 2 - 7 (one of those wins against Kent State). We move into 2010, and they reach 7 - 5, their first winning season since 1995 and first bowl game appearance since 1994. Then come to this season and we already know what happened.

Point is, RG3 got more done with less tools. And a team like the Colts is going to need someone that can do more with less. Not someone that can do more with more.
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Loserboi
Posts: 1,232
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12/16/2011 3:14:09 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
He's first overall pick I'm pretty sure you made a very good argument, but he is the number 1 pick, or at very least number 1 quarterback. he has scouting reports that hasnt been seen since John Elway