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Is Tebow really that bad?

Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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11/15/2011 12:57:58 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
So Tim had, what to most QBs would be considered a craptastic game last week. He only went 2 for 8 and 69 yards, though one was for a TD. So far this year, he has not had a single game with 50% or greater passing, however, he has 7 TD passes (2 TD runs) and only 1 pick. For someone that has such a low percentage, you'd think that picks would be a big issue. He has also been sacked only once in the last two games, a vast improvement from before (where I think he was sacked 13 times in two games, or something like that).

In his 4 starts, he is 3 - 1, pretty respectable for a new QB (Cam Newton, the likely rookie of the year would like to be able to get the wins to go with his numbers).

Is it possible that Tebow is actually improving and may become a good QB? I'm not asking if he'll become the next Brady or Manning, but do you think that he can become good enough lead the Broncos to the playoffs a few times in his career, maybe even win a few games in the post season?
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
inferno
Posts: 10,612
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11/15/2011 1:01:29 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/15/2011 12:57:58 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
So Tim had, what to most QBs would be considered a craptastic game last week. He only went 2 for 8 and 69 yards, though one was for a TD. So far this year, he has not had a single game with 50% or greater passing, however, he has 7 TD passes (2 TD runs) and only 1 pick. For someone that has such a low percentage, you'd think that picks would be a big issue. He has also been sacked only once in the last two games, a vast improvement from before (where I think he was sacked 13 times in two games, or something like that).

In his 4 starts, he is 3 - 1, pretty respectable for a new QB (Cam Newton, the likely rookie of the year would like to be able to get the wins to go with his numbers).

Is it possible that Tebow is actually improving and may become a good QB? I'm not asking if he'll become the next Brady or Manning, but do you think that he can become good enough lead the Broncos to the playoffs a few times in his career, maybe even win a few games in the post season?

He is just an average NFL quarterback. Oh well, life goes on.
Lasagna
Posts: 2,440
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11/15/2011 1:04:49 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
The 2008 Dolphins had success with the wildcat offense but it was short-lived. I'd like to see him be successful just to add the different element, but without a passing game to keep defenses honest (in an increasingly pass-dominated league) it just doesn't seem that they could make it all the way.
Rob
Danielle
Posts: 21,330
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11/15/2011 1:09:37 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
I say no for Tebow vastly improving, just because he isn't known for his arm or his accuracy. The NFL is proving to be a very QB friendly league. It's been mentioned before how several QBs this year are (or at least were) on par to beat Marino's record for most passing yards in a season. Tebow's advantage is that with his ability to run the option, opposing defenses have to prepare for his ground game in addition to possible pass plays. The thing is that his passing isn't very threatening, which means defenses only really have to focus on stopping his run game. Unless he starts becoming a threat with the deep ball or at least a quasi-decent passer, he will not pose much of a challenge. The thing is though that the Broncos just don't have a good enough team to really be a threat. A lot of other teams are considered good despite iffy QBs - namely my New York Jets. However the Broncos don't have a lot of weapons, and because of that, they need a decent QB. Tebow is barely average. There isn't a whole lot about him to fear besides the run - but again the defense can start accounting for that, and when they do Tebow hasn't proven that he can retaliate by becoming an explosive passer when the opportunity presents itself.
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Danielle
Posts: 21,330
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11/15/2011 1:10:15 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
Haha, Rob and I essentially said the same thing - but I was typing something more lengthy while he posted :P
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Lasagna
Posts: 2,440
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11/15/2011 1:14:21 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
I suppose it is worth mentioning that one of those two passes was a deep ball for a TD; the defense never knows when he will actually go ahead and throw it. 2 for 8 sucks, but if you look at it from the perspective that 1 out of 8 throws was a TD pass... now that's a statistic that might be interesting to keep going.
Rob
BlackVoid
Posts: 9,170
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11/15/2011 5:46:08 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/15/2011 1:14:21 PM, Lasagna wrote:
I suppose it is worth mentioning that one of those two passes was a deep ball for a TD; the defense never knows when he will actually go ahead and throw it. 2 for 8 sucks, but if you look at it from the perspective that 1 out of 8 throws was a TD pass... now that's a statistic that might be interesting to keep going.

Reminds me of Demaryius Thomos (also on the Broncos). He only averaged like 4 catches a game at Georgia Tech, who runs the triple option, but when he did get the ball he literally averaged 27 yards a catch, because when GT threw it the defense just had no idea it was coming.
Lasagna
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11/16/2011 11:41:35 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
You know, the weird thing is that last year the Broncos were the most pass-heavy team that I've ever seen. Orton would consistently put up fantasy numbers to rival Rodgers and Brady because he passed on every down. Now they are doing the exact opposite, and without both of their runningbacks? This team has a serious identity crisis.
Rob
Lasagna
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11/18/2011 10:08:59 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/16/2011 11:19:05 AM, Avengers777 wrote:
I think Tebow is pretty good. Also he is a good person because he is a Christian.

I'm trying to look past that deficiency in his character... maybe the only reason I like him so far is because I haven't heard him open his mouth yet...
Rob
Loserboi
Posts: 1,232
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11/18/2011 4:34:32 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
He is the luckiest qb i have ever seen. To be honest with you it seems like crap just falls into place his way. No other qb in the NFL can have the numbers he has and win in the NFL. He has has games where he has less than 10 completions, and games where he is wayyy below 50% completion percentage, and somehow he makes that one throw that goes for a touchdown. And somehow the other team cannot get going either. I think Tebow gets too much credit though. If you look at it the Broncos are doing their job on defense teams have no been scoring much on them, like Kansas city, Miami, and New York
BlackVoid
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11/18/2011 5:17:19 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/18/2011 4:34:32 PM, Loserboi wrote:
He is the luckiest qb i have ever seen. To be honest with you it seems like crap just falls into place his way. No other qb in the NFL can have the numbers he has and win in the NFL. He has has games where he has less than 10 completions, and games where he is wayyy below 50% completion percentage, and somehow he makes that one throw that goes for a touchdown. And somehow the other team cannot get going either. I think Tebow gets too much credit though. If you look at it the Broncos are doing their job on defense teams have no been scoring much on them, like Kansas city, Miami, and New York

Well yeah, because they run the ball so much it runs the clock down, gives the other team less chances to score in the first place. Also keeps the D fresh.
Danielle
Posts: 21,330
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11/20/2011 6:42:38 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/18/2011 4:34:32 PM, Loserboi wrote:
He is the luckiest qb i have ever seen. To be honest with you it seems like crap just falls into place his way. No other qb in the NFL can have the numbers he has and win in the NFL. He has has games where he has less than 10 completions, and games where he is wayyy below 50% completion percentage, and somehow he makes that one throw that goes for a touchdown. And somehow the other team cannot get going either. I think Tebow gets too much credit though. If you look at it the Broncos are doing their job on defense teams have no been scoring much on them, like Kansas city, Miami, and New York

I agree with this, but also look at the teams you mentioned: Miami (sh!t), Kansas City (better sh!t but still sh!t) and New York - who I've maintained were the most overrated team going into the season, even though I am a Jets fan. They're not exactly known for having an explosive offense, so it's not surprising that the Broncos (mostly Tebow) have been lucky against these teams. If they did make it to the playoffs, it wouldn't be for very long. There is no way they could beat a decent team. Beating the Jets was a fluke (that I actually saw coming, after Revis made all kinds of comments about how the Jets weren't scared about the game at all... it's always the fvcking jinx big mouths, man).
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Lasagna
Posts: 2,440
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11/20/2011 10:12:37 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/20/2011 6:42:38 AM, Danielle wrote:
it's always the fvcking jinx big mouths, man).

The proudest men in the NFL always fail to succeed. It seems like everytime someone puts their pride on the line they get punished. The last incident that comes to mind was the Washington/Dallas game, where the cornerback was going to be finding Romo's ribs. Since that comment, Washington went from NFL front-runner to a laughingstock and hasn't returned.
Rob
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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11/29/2011 12:50:00 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
Let's look at some numbers.

Comparing the Bronco's first 5 games, to their last 5 games. Though both sets have an outlier, I think it is okay to include them (since there is one in each group, the Lions and Packers games).

The average for the first 5 games, Denver scores 21 points and gives up 28 points. Needless to say, this obviously points to the 1 - 4 record for those 5 games. But oddly, in the last 5 games Denver scores 19.6 points and gives up 21 points (and this includes an OT game, take the score at the end of the 4th qtr, and the average is 19 points per game). Here, we can clearly see that their offense is actually scoring less, but their defense is doing a boat load better.

And that is also seen in the yardage numbers. The first 5 games, their defense gave up 385 yards a game (262 passing, 123 rushing), but in the last 5 games, their defense only gave up 342 yards a game (219 passing, 123 rushing). Now, from this we can easily say that the biggest change has been due to an improved defense and Tebow just happened to join the party at the right time to get the fame, but there is a bigger difference that can effect the defense in such a positive way, turnovers and TOP. Both of which are heavily in Tebow's control.

The first 5 games, Denver gave up 12 turnovers (7 ints and 5 lost fumbles), compared to their last 5 games, where they only gave up 4 turnovers (1 int and 3 fumbles). Now granted, Tebow puts the ball into the air a heck of a lot less than Orton did, but in the 165 pass attempts in those, 1 in 23.6 attempts was picked off. In Tebow's 108 attempts in the last 5 games, only 1 in 108 was picked off. We can also see that, despite nearly doubling the rush attempts (from 118 to 209), fewer fumbles were lost (granted some of those in both groups were on the QB). This helps the defense do better.

Another big factor is TOP. In the first 5 games, Denver averaged -8:10 in their TOP, with their best being only +0:30. In the last 5 games, they averaged +2:14 in their TOP. That's a greater than 10 minute swing which gives the defense much more time to rest so they can perform better.

However, it is also worth noting that there is a clear difference in the skill of the first 5 teams and the last 5 teams. After adjusting for the games against Denver, the first 5 teams had an average record of 6.2 - 3.4, where the last 5 teams had an average record of 5.0 - 4.6.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
inferno
Posts: 10,612
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11/29/2011 12:52:23 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/29/2011 12:50:00 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
Let's look at some numbers.

Comparing the Bronco's first 5 games, to their last 5 games. Though both sets have an outlier, I think it is okay to include them (since there is one in each group, the Lions and Packers games).

The average for the first 5 games, Denver scores 21 points and gives up 28 points. Needless to say, this obviously points to the 1 - 4 record for those 5 games. But oddly, in the last 5 games Denver scores 19.6 points and gives up 21 points (and this includes an OT game, take the score at the end of the 4th qtr, and the average is 19 points per game). Here, we can clearly see that their offense is actually scoring less, but their defense is doing a boat load better.

And that is also seen in the yardage numbers. The first 5 games, their defense gave up 385 yards a game (262 passing, 123 rushing), but in the last 5 games, their defense only gave up 342 yards a game (219 passing, 123 rushing). Now, from this we can easily say that the biggest change has been due to an improved defense and Tebow just happened to join the party at the right time to get the fame, but there is a bigger difference that can effect the defense in such a positive way, turnovers and TOP. Both of which are heavily in Tebow's control.

The first 5 games, Denver gave up 12 turnovers (7 ints and 5 lost fumbles), compared to their last 5 games, where they only gave up 4 turnovers (1 int and 3 fumbles). Now granted, Tebow puts the ball into the air a heck of a lot less than Orton did, but in the 165 pass attempts in those, 1 in 23.6 attempts was picked off. In Tebow's 108 attempts in the last 5 games, only 1 in 108 was picked off. We can also see that, despite nearly doubling the rush attempts (from 118 to 209), fewer fumbles were lost (granted some of those in both groups were on the QB). This helps the defense do better.

Another big factor is TOP. In the first 5 games, Denver averaged -8:10 in their TOP, with their best being only +0:30. In the last 5 games, they averaged +2:14 in their TOP. That's a greater than 10 minute swing which gives the defense much more time to rest so they can perform better.

However, it is also worth noting that there is a clear difference in the skill of the first 5 teams and the last 5 teams. After adjusting for the games against Denver, the first 5 teams had an average record of 6.2 - 3.4, where the last 5 teams had an average record of 5.0 - 4.6.

Yes, yes. But his numbers dont come close to Newton. This kid is getting almost 400 yards per game. That is nice and all, but the Packers still might win the big one.
The only team that might stop them is in the AFC during the Super Bowl.
And that team is the Patriots.
Lasagna
Posts: 2,440
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11/29/2011 12:54:43 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
Tebow could be just the type of QB that keeps the ball out of the hands of other elite QBs and neutralizes their ability to affect the game.
Rob
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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11/29/2011 1:04:27 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/29/2011 12:54:43 PM, Lasagna wrote:
Tebow could be just the type of QB that keeps the ball out of the hands of other elite QBs and neutralizes their ability to affect the game.

That would seem so by the radical TOP change and severe drop in turnovers. Their offense has gone from 304 yards per game (202 passing and 102 rushing) to 323 yards per game (109 passing and 214 rushing) so the change in style has not really hurt their offense. Though since they have a better TOP, they are getting more offensive plays and their average yards per play (only counting rushes and passes, not punts or FG attempts) went from 5.33 down to 5.05 (passing dropped from 6.12 to 4.95 per attempt and rushing rose from 4.25 to 5.10 per attempt).
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"