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Will Chip Kelly be broken by the Eagles?

Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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8/8/2013 12:57:21 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
Anyone that follows College football (which I think is only me) is either very familiar with Kelly and what he's done with the Ducks, or doesn't really follow College football.

A little backstory. Oregon football has been around since 1894. It didn't really start doing well until 1989 (before then a .500 season was a good season). They had their first Rose Bowl appearance in 1994 (which they were obliterated 38 to 20) and never went back. Though they did stop and kick butt in the Fiesta Bowl in 2001. But in all those years, they only had 5 appearances in top level bowl games (out of 38 years, as the source I used only went back to 1970). While they were a good team, one that no team could automatically write off as a win, they were not one of the top schools in the country.

Kelly came aboard in 2009 and went to a major bowl game EVERY YEAR, including their first stint to the BCS championship game. His worst AP rating at the end of a season was 11th in the country. The Ducks had only beat that 3 times in their history. Of the team's 5 best years (since 1894, almost 120 years), 3 of them were under Kelly's watch (with includes their #1 and #2 years). Again, all this in just 4 years.

He has since been brought to the Eagles, which had been performing more like Turkeys a week before Thanksgiving. So far in training, he is showing that he is going to try to use the same, or atleast very similar style that he used in Oregon. This style was offense focused. Attack hard and fast and don't stop. Simply overwhelm the defense with speed. Catch them on their heels and keep pushing.

There is strength to this game plan, and there is weakness. And if you have a weak team, like a bunch of flightless birds being fattened up for slaughter, the weakness may show very clearly.

Before going into the Eagles (that is who the thread is ultimately about, right?), we need to look at Kelly's strongest ability. And sadly, that ability is completely negated in the NFL. For college, rather than a draft, colleges will go recruit high schoolers. Kelly was a freaking genius at this. Without rational question, the best freshmen QBs last year (Kelly's last year with Oregon) were Johnny Manziel (who would ultimately become the first freshman to win the Heisman as well as set records for taring through the legendary SEX defenses) and Marcus Mariota. Both of these QBs were recruited by Kelly and committed to Oregon (though Manziel would later back out of the commitment and go to Texas A&M). The man can find talent and make it want to join his team. But you don't get to recruit in the NFL, you have to draft. And you have to deal with the hands given you and the limit of money and salary caps.

Now without all the super star talent to make Kelly's game plan work as he had accumulated in Oregon, other problems start to arise. First, if your offense is not completely dominating, they will shoot the defense in the back of the head. If you have a slow offense that goes 3 and out. They will still be giving the defense 3 - 4 minutes of rest. However, with the fast pace that Kelly likes to go, his defense may only get 60 seconds of rest before they are back on the field. This may cause his defense to get their butts handed to them like he tries to hand the defense's butt of the other team to them.

The second issue is with training to do such thing. Many people are not going to make it through the rigorous practices to get ready for such a demanding play style. In the last 2 weeks, the Eagles have lost 2 WRs and a LB with torn ACLs. And just recently McCoy had to leave with a knee injury. While it is not expected to be a serious injury, when you add that to his past history, all the other serious injuries, you are looking at the potential for a major team collapse that may make every forget about Shanahan and RG3 last post season.
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airmax1227
Posts: 13,244
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8/8/2013 1:05:20 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
Great post, and I agree.

I still don't understand the hiring of Kelly by the Eagles. Seemed like they should have promoted from within or gone with a rising assistant from outside.

He's going to have a rough couple years, and then he'll probably head back to the college ranks.

But who knows, he could surprise. He's got a tough team to work with, but it has talent and they could surprise.

If he isn't broken, he's likely to be at least Chip'd (hehehehe).
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Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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8/8/2013 1:22:41 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
I can partially understand him working with Vick and McCoy, as he builds with mobile QBs and strong RBs.

2012 - 960 yards by QB
2011 - 400 yards
2010 - 620 yards
2009 - 680 yards

And remember that these are for only 12 game years, not 16. If Carolina with Newton got a better RB, that would likely be the only team that would be a better fit. But his defense is just terrible.

Granted it is not their 1st string defense, but they still gave up multiple PASSING TDs to Tebow.

http://www.usatoday.com...
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Danielle
Posts: 21,330
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8/8/2013 6:36:36 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
I would fvcking love to be a football coach. Just saying.

I can't see Kelly and the Eagles succeeding, at least not right away. They play in one of the toughest divisions in football. I suspect the Eagles will only win 4 games this year. To be successful I think the Birds need a new QB going forward beyond Vick, and a hella good defensive coordinator (obviously).
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USAPitBull63
Posts: 668
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8/8/2013 7:49:20 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 8/8/2013 12:57:21 AM, Ore_Ele wrote:
Anyone that follows College football (which I think is only me) [...].

College football is more popular than NFL football, so I doubt you're the only person (even here) that follows it!

That said, I think Chip Kelly's success was more coaching than recruiting, but even his recruiting was more Nike than him (although he knew certainly how to milk that connection).

First, Mike Belotti made the program relevant again; they probably should have been Co-National Champions in 2001-02, or should have played Miami instead of Nebraska. Chip Kelly inherited a good system that had pedigree by that point, and adding a kick to something already successful usually is easier to accomplish quickly than resurrecting a virtually dead program. Thus, in the Pac-10/12 at least, Kelly inherited an established recruiting outlet.

Second, couple that with the fact that his four years coincided with both Pete Carroll leaving USC and Jim Harbaugh leaving Stanford---two excellent recruiters in their own right (and two teams who beat Oregon even during the Kelly tenure). Also, USC had been hit with damaging (to its recruiting potential) sanctions in 2010, when Carroll left. Kelly was able to take some elite USC targets and get them to commit to the University of Oregon (UO); until then, USC had ALL the Pac-10 allure.

Harbaugh (like Carroll) knew how to attract the best athletes (although they had to be more committed to academics than USC recruits, by respective university standards alone) because he (like Carroll) had successful NFL experience. He ran an NFL-style offense, also. Even though that program continued/s to thrive under David Shaw, the absence of Harbaugh and Carroll made it easier for Kelly to snag potential Pac-10/12 superstar recruits.

But perhaps most important to Kelly's recruiting genius was a little company named Nike, who since 2000, has donated (annually) tens of millions of dollars to the university's athletics programs. Nike designs UO's football team uniforms, based partially on player requests/recommendations. Since 2001, Nike has sponsored the Nike Oregon Project, which has helped attract some of the best track athletes from around the world (let alone country) to run for/at UO; even the USA Olympic trials (track) are held mostly at UO. It's been a sexy school for athletes who want exposure to that lifestyle, especially for football and track.

It's an attractive school/program to play for regardless of head football coach---especially now that its $68M+, 145k sq-ft, football-only facility has been completed for the start of the 2013-14 season.

That said, Kelly was a great recruiter, but he's a good coach; Bill Belichick did not pursue offensive advice from him several years ago due to his recruiting abilities. And if Kelly will "break" in the NFL, it likely will come at the hands of the Redskins, Cowboys, and Giants.
USAPitBull63
Posts: 668
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8/8/2013 7:50:59 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
The training aspect may be more serious, especially if one more player gets a season-ending injury before preseason game 2, or if a superstar gets injured.
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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8/8/2013 11:23:42 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
While Nike has helped a good deal. Their contribution seems short. Since 2001, Oregon had not gone to a BCS Bowl game until Kelly (and went every year with Kelly). Nike had been helping them all that time. As I said, Oregon was a good team in the last decade or two, and not a write off win for anyone. However, Since Kelly took them, they were lifted to a-whole-nother level.

It should also be noted that in Kelly's 4 years, they were 3 - 1 vs USC, while the previous 4 years they were 1 - 3 vs USC. Stanford on the other hand is was not really a football titan, at least not on Oregon soil. Before Kelly, Stanford lost to Oregon 7 times in a row. Oddly, Stanford seems to only be able to beat Oregon when Oregon is day dreaming about BCS championships. Stanford beat them last year in week 11 when the Ducks were rated #1, in 2009 in week 9 when they were #8. And back in 2001 in week 7 when they were #5. Apart from those, Stanford could not beat the Ducks when it didn't matter.

But anyway, about the NFL...
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