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Next Generation of Top Tier QB

Ore_Ele
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1/28/2014 10:07:49 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
There is little room to argue that the current top tier of QBs is (not in any particular order)
Tom Brady (age 37)
Drew Brees (age 36)
Peyton Manning (age 38)
Aaron Rodgers (age 31)
*ages are what they will be to start the next season

Everyone else is fighting for scraps in the second and third tiers. 3 of the 4 are going to be retiring in the next few years. I don't think any of them (the three old guys) will still be starting in 2017 season.

So who will be the next generation of the "Top Tier" QBs?

I see no sign that Rodgers will not be a dominating QB for at least another 5-6 years. Of course, if Green Bay's offensive line starts to suck (more) and he takes more and more beatings, then he may not last. But lets go forward 5 years, those 3 old guys have retired, who is the new group?

Do we see Eli coming back as a candidate? Has Luck matured and developed enough to crack into that group or is he still several years away? Can a mobile QB like Foley stay healthy enough in the long haul to make it into the group and stay there?
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
Ore_Ele
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1/28/2014 10:29:18 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
For my group, I'm obviously going to put Rodgers in there. I'm really leaning on Romo cracking into there, as he has the skills, he just needs to get over choking. But everyone knows that he has the arm skills to go toe to toe with Peyton or anyone (just pull him out before the 4th quarter and you'll be good). Though he will be 34 next year, so if he does ever hit that top tier, he will only be there for a few years.

Stafford is one that I think could be in that group, he did break 5,000 passing yards at age 23, but has since declined a bit (still broke 4,500 3 years in a row). He also shows that he has quite the endurance managing to toss the ball 600+ times a season and still throw it down the field. Give him a good line and more than one solid receiver and I could see him being a top tier QB. I do have a hard time putting two guys from the same division in here. Since they would face each other twice a year, the better is going to be keeping the other in submission, and I'd pick Rodgers over Stafford.

Luck will be 29 and he will either be on the brink of the top tier or in it (and that depends on how much support and how many weapons he is given to work with). I don't think this needs explaining. Though let me re-say, once again, that at the moment, he is not a great QB, he is an above average QB that will be one of the best IN THE FUTURE (but not right now).

Eli is in a similar boat as Romo. He will be 34 next year and I don't see him having such a turn around that he can enter the T1 conversation for a few years. And by then the talk will be about his retirement.

I don't see Alex Smith getting good enough that he can ever be leaned on as a strong and PRIMARY weapon for an offense. I am leaning the same for Russell Wilson, though he hasn't had a need to step up to the plate on more than a single drive or quarter at a time. Though he has shown that he is just as good in throws 21 - 30 as he is for throws 1 - 10 (however he has RARELY gone over 30 throws in a game and that 31 - 40 is a much more telling stat). If we look at Alex Smith, for throws 1 - 10, he has a QBR of 104.1, but for 21 - 30, he is only 68.9. This is why he is a flat out "no" while Wilson is a "maybe, I'd have to see more."

If Foles can stay healthy, I can definitely see him on this list (though that might only be while he is with Kelly's offense). He gets better as he goes along. For passing in the first 20 attempts of the game he has a QB rating of 116.1, for pass attempts beyond 20 he is 126.4 (with 9.4 yards per attempt). Though we haven't seen enough of him to make any real long term claims. A single season means little (see RG3 of 2012, lol).

Speaking of which, I don't see RG3 breaking that top group at all, not without serious changes.

Kaepernick is one that could. He has the skills, but seems to have issues with turning his talent into meaningful numbers, unless he is playing Green Bay.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
Agent_Orange
Posts: 2,252
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1/29/2014 12:30:45 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
Seahawks are going to the super bowl. And are going to win it. I'm not talking about football until this season is over.
#BlackLivesMatter
Ore_Ele
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1/29/2014 1:09:18 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 1/29/2014 12:30:45 AM, Agent_Orange wrote:
Seahawks are going to the super bowl. And are going to win it. I'm not talking about football until this season is over.

I expect a detailed report by Monday then.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
birdlandmemories
Posts: 4,140
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1/29/2014 1:25:10 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
I'll be willing to write the summary of the 2013-14 NFL Season.

As for next generation, I guess you could just say the 2012 class.
Ashton
R0b1Billion
Posts: 3,733
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1/29/2014 6:25:02 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
Romo and Eli could put up another decent season or two, but we've seen already what they can do, which is occasional flashes of talent accompanied by lots of failure (Eli is clutch, I'll give him that much). I don't see bright futures for really any of the new mobile QBs (after all, there's a reason why they are all new and the older crop, like Vick and Vince Young never could get off the ground). Wilson, Kaepernick, Newton, and RG3 are not impressive without their legs and, as we are going to see Sunday, compared to a pocket-passer like Manning they just don't stand up. I think Foles has potential, we'll see... He has giant hands and that usually is a sign of a great QB. I haven't seen Geno Smith in action very much but I don't feel like I need to... Stafford, Rivers, Flacco, Roethlesberger, and Matty Ice are all solid QBs that are capable of winning big games when surrounded by enough talent but aren't ever going to be "elite." Luck is throwing picks in big games but he should turn it around.

1. Rodgers
2. Foles
3. Luck

I think these guys have the biggest long-term futures.
Beliefs in a nutshell:
- The Ends never justify the Means.
- Objectivity is secondary to subjectivity.
- The War on Drugs is the worst policy in the U.S.
- Most people worship technology as a religion.
- Computers will never become sentient.
Ore_Ele
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1/29/2014 7:35:09 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 1/29/2014 6:25:02 PM, R0b1Billion wrote:
Romo and Eli could put up another decent season or two, but we've seen already what they can do, which is occasional flashes of talent accompanied by lots of failure (Eli is clutch, I'll give him that much). I don't see bright futures for really any of the new mobile QBs (after all, there's a reason why they are all new and the older crop, like Vick and Vince Young never could get off the ground). Wilson, Kaepernick, Newton, and RG3 are not impressive without their legs and, as we are going to see Sunday, compared to a pocket-passer like Manning they just don't stand up. I think Foles has potential, we'll see... He has giant hands and that usually is a sign of a great QB. I haven't seen Geno Smith in action very much but I don't feel like I need to... Stafford, Rivers, Flacco, Roethlesberger, and Matty Ice are all solid QBs that are capable of winning big games when surrounded by enough talent but aren't ever going to be "elite." Luck is throwing picks in big games but he should turn it around.

1. Rodgers
2. Foles
3. Luck

I think these guys have the biggest long-term futures.

Let us expand on Cam Newton as a potential candidate. This past year, Cam really toned down the deep passes. Compared to last year, he threw almost 500 fewer yards, but had 5 more TD passes and increased his passing % by 4 points. I think he is really pulling himself back to get restructured and he will resume growing in the coming years. One concern is that while he gets better the deeper into the game he goes (passes 21-30 are better than 11-20, which are better than 1-10), however he falls apart when he goes for too long (passes 31-40 really drop off), so in-game passing endurance is a question. I don't think you can argue any more against his toughness overall, 49 games in a row and he is still doing well (over 550 rushing yards is all 3 of his seasons). He's got a great TE and a great WR, but he needs some additional weapons that work as legitimate options.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
R0b1Billion
Posts: 3,733
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1/30/2014 12:11:01 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 1/29/2014 7:35:09 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 1/29/2014 6:25:02 PM, R0b1Billion wrote:
Romo and Eli could put up another decent season or two, but we've seen already what they can do, which is occasional flashes of talent accompanied by lots of failure (Eli is clutch, I'll give him that much). I don't see bright futures for really any of the new mobile QBs (after all, there's a reason why they are all new and the older crop, like Vick and Vince Young never could get off the ground). Wilson, Kaepernick, Newton, and RG3 are not impressive without their legs and, as we are going to see Sunday, compared to a pocket-passer like Manning they just don't stand up. I think Foles has potential, we'll see... He has giant hands and that usually is a sign of a great QB. I haven't seen Geno Smith in action very much but I don't feel like I need to... Stafford, Rivers, Flacco, Roethlesberger, and Matty Ice are all solid QBs that are capable of winning big games when surrounded by enough talent but aren't ever going to be "elite." Luck is throwing picks in big games but he should turn it around.

1. Rodgers
2. Foles
3. Luck

I think these guys have the biggest long-term futures.

Let us expand on Cam Newton as a potential candidate. This past year, Cam really toned down the deep passes. Compared to last year, he threw almost 500 fewer yards, but had 5 more TD passes and increased his passing % by 4 points. I think he is really pulling himself back to get restructured and he will resume growing in the coming years. One concern is that while he gets better the deeper into the game he goes (passes 21-30 are better than 11-20, which are better than 1-10), however he falls apart when he goes for too long (passes 31-40 really drop off), so in-game passing endurance is a question. I don't think you can argue any more against his toughness overall, 49 games in a row and he is still doing well (over 550 rushing yards is all 3 of his seasons). He's got a great TE and a great WR, but he needs some additional weapons that work as legitimate options.

Newton to me is the ONE out of the group that I wouldn't be shocked to see become really good. Perhaps it is because he has the most experience out of the lot, but I don't think so... I think he has the most talent. I hate Kaepernick, his throwing style is as bad as Tebow's if you ask me. Wilson doesn't have as big an arm and RG3 has yet to stay healthy enough to do much of anything. Newton's only big issue to me is the intangibles, mainly his heart. He is not clutch at all, you can get into his head much too easily.
Beliefs in a nutshell:
- The Ends never justify the Means.
- Objectivity is secondary to subjectivity.
- The War on Drugs is the worst policy in the U.S.
- Most people worship technology as a religion.
- Computers will never become sentient.
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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2/3/2014 9:59:53 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 1/29/2014 1:09:18 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 1/29/2014 12:30:45 AM, Agent_Orange wrote:
Seahawks are going to the super bowl. And are going to win it. I'm not talking about football until this season is over.

I expect a detailed report by Monday then.

Where's your report?!
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
Danielle
Posts: 21,330
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2/4/2014 4:15:40 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
I would say Rodgers, Kaepernick, Luck and Foles. I know some people are skeptical about Kaep, but I'm not sure why. I don't think he's a Tom Brady (or even Rodgers) who can play with anyone, but if he has Vernon Davis and a deep set of receivers that he builds chemistry with, then I think in addition to his legs he will do great things. I can see him going further than RG3 and being a better QB than Wilson for sure. While Wilson might show superior game management, I think Kaep is the better athlete every time. Luck is a bit of a crap shoot, but he just has too much potential to ignore. I think Foles will excel under Chip Kelly and a high powered offense once they get going. Rodgers has proven his value and will probably improve every year until 38.
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Loserboi
Posts: 1,232
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2/5/2014 4:18:49 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 2/4/2014 4:15:40 PM, Danielle wrote:
I would say Rodgers, Kaepernick, Luck and Foles. I know some people are skeptical about Kaep, but I'm not sure why. I don't think he's a Tom Brady (or even Rodgers) who can play with anyone, but if he has Vernon Davis and a deep set of receivers that he builds chemistry with, then I think in addition to his legs he will do great things. I can see him going further than RG3 and being a better QB than Wilson for sure. While Wilson might show superior game management, I think Kaep is the better athlete every time. Luck is a bit of a crap shoot, but he just has too much potential to ignore. I think Foles will excel under Chip Kelly and a high powered offense once they get going. Rodgers has proven his value and will probably improve every year until 38.

No, unfortunately I have to retract my statement about Russell Wilson being a one hit wonder. What I saw this year was amazing. I think Russell Wilson will be a great quarterback for years to come. He looks driven, fearless, and he is an excellent decision maker. I don't think Wilson is a game manager, I think he can light it up whenever he want to, he can make the throws, and his ability to stay composed is something to be admired. He runs out of necessity, and when pressure presents itself.

Kaep I am not sold. I am a 49ers fan, I have watched Kaep the entire season. The dude is an athletic freak, he has the skill set to be a great quarterback. The problem that I am noticing is that he is fearful. He doesn't go through his progressions, and he often times struggles in the clutch. I hope he understands that he has more than Crabtree to throw to. He stares down one receiver, and will take off running if they are not open. Kaep is a moderate passer, his value comes from his ability to extend plays with his legs. I like Kaep, I hope I am wrong. But those mental errors aren't easily fixed, its either you got it, or you don't.

RG3= garbage.
R0b1Billion
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2/10/2014 4:08:35 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
Yeah I agree with loserboi, Kaep is not clutch. Joe Montana went on record right before the championship game criticizing him, and was prophetic in explaining how they were about to lose. He has the best legs of any QB I've ever seen, as strong an arm as anybody, but he doesn't have that greatness of an elite QB or even that slightly-less-than-elite category that we typically stick the likes of Roethlesberger, E Manning, Matt Ryan, Flacco, Rivers, or Matt Stafford.
Beliefs in a nutshell:
- The Ends never justify the Means.
- Objectivity is secondary to subjectivity.
- The War on Drugs is the worst policy in the U.S.
- Most people worship technology as a religion.
- Computers will never become sentient.