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What is wrong with the Raiders?!

Ore_Ele
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11/24/2014 12:33:56 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
So I'm going through all the first round draft picks from 2000 - 2010 to see links between the success in college (as an individual, team, and conference) and success in the NFL. I just came across something that stopped my in my tracks.

The Raiders used a first round pick (pick 17 in the 2000 draft) for Sebastian Janikowski... I freaking Kicker... In the first round. He was drafter ahead of ALL QBs (Chad Pennington was the next pick at 18). No wonder they suck.
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1harderthanyouthink
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11/24/2014 12:41:13 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
Did you know he's the Raider's franchise record holder for most points scored?
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
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Ore_Ele
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11/24/2014 12:55:44 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/24/2014 12:41:13 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
Did you know he's the Raider's franchise record holder for most points scored?

He's still a kicker. There is no kicker worth a first round pick. He is a career 80% kicker (placing him #39 for all time accuracy, behind 23 other currently active kickers).

http://www.pro-football-reference.com...
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Ore_Ele
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11/24/2014 12:56:27 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/24/2014 12:55:44 AM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 11/24/2014 12:41:13 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
Did you know he's the Raider's franchise record holder for most points scored?

He's still a kicker. There is no kicker worth a first round pick. He is a career 80% kicker (placing him #39 for all time accuracy, behind 23 other currently active kickers).

http://www.pro-football-reference.com...

Also, that has more to do with how much the Raiders suck, rather than how good he is/was.
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1harderthanyouthink
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11/24/2014 1:01:40 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/24/2014 12:55:44 AM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 11/24/2014 12:41:13 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
Did you know he's the Raider's franchise record holder for most points scored?

He's still a kicker. There is no kicker worth a first round pick. He is a career 80% kicker (placing him #39 for all time accuracy, behind 23 other currently active kickers).

http://www.pro-football-reference.com...

It was a horrible pick...but that's a pretty impressive accolade, IMO.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

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airmax1227
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11/24/2014 1:02:29 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/24/2014 12:33:56 AM, Ore_Ele wrote:
So I'm going through all the first round draft picks from 2000 - 2010 to see links between the success in college (as an individual, team, and conference) and success in the NFL. I just came across something that stopped my in my tracks.

The Raiders used a first round pick (pick 17 in the 2000 draft) for Sebastian Janikowski... I freaking Kicker... In the first round. He was drafter ahead of ALL QBs (Chad Pennington was the next pick at 18). No wonder they suck.

One could argue that SeaBass was actually their best 1st round pick in those years.

Lets check it out:

Let's start with 1998, because that's the year they drafted first ballot Hall of Famer Charles Woodson.

1998: Charles Woodson CB, 4th overall (8 Pro Bowls, still active)
1999: Matt Stinchcomb G, 18th overall (5 seasons)
2000: Seabass K, 17th overall (1 pro bowl, 15 seasons, still active)
2001: Derrick Gibson DB, 28th overall (5 seasons)
2002: Phillip Buchanon DB, 17th overall (10 seasons)
2003: Nnamdi Asomugha DB, 31st overall (3 pro bowls, still active)
2004: Robert Gallery, T, 2nd overall (8 seasons)
2005: Fabian Washington, DB, 23rd overall, (6 seasons)
2006: Michael Huff, DB, 7th overall (8 seasons, still active)
2007: JaMarcus Russell, QB, 1st overall (3 seasons)
2008: Darren McFadden, RB, 4th overall (7 seasons, still active)
2009: Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR 7th overall (6 seasons, still active)
2010: Rolando McClain, LB, 8th overall, (4 seasons, still active)

I think we can break this list down to Busts (total failure of a draft pick - especially when consider how high they were taken), OK (decent career), and Hits (by all standards, an excellent career).

Busts:

Stinchcomb
Gibson
Gallery
Washington
Russell

OK:

Buchanon
Huff
McFadden (Close to a hit, but injury prone)
Heyward-Bey (too early really to evaluate)
McClain (same as Heyward-Bey)

Hits:

Woodson
Seabass
Asomugha

...

When looking at that list it's pretty easy to tell that the Raiders have struggled with high draft picks. Players like Gallery and Russel were top 5 picks and were complete busts. If we take out Woodson, who isn't included in your since 2010 criteria, that leaves only Asomugha, who isn't on the team anymore.

So who is the only successful first round draft pick that remains with the team (aside from Woodson who was drafted before 2010 and only returned after a stint with the Packers), that's right, Seabass.

Would I take a kicker in the first round? No. But if you are going to take a kicker that high, you really couldn't have done better than Seabass. When you also consider that the chances are extremely good that the Raiders would have drafted a bust anyway, and the Seabass pick then doesn't look so bad.
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1harderthanyouthink
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11/24/2014 1:07:30 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/24/2014 1:02:29 AM, airmax1227 wrote:

JaMarcus Russell may have been the worst bust in NFL history, IMO.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

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airmax1227
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11/24/2014 1:09:49 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/24/2014 1:07:30 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 11/24/2014 1:02:29 AM, airmax1227 wrote:

JaMarcus Russell may have been the worst bust in NFL history, IMO.

Agreed. Ryan Leaf is the only other player that comes close in my mind, but Russell edges him out for #1 since he was the first overall pick and Leaf was #2.

I'll have to look at some lists of top picks and really consider this though to be sure.... But Russell is definitely close to the top.
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1harderthanyouthink
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11/24/2014 1:14:47 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/24/2014 1:09:49 AM, airmax1227 wrote:
At 11/24/2014 1:07:30 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 11/24/2014 1:02:29 AM, airmax1227 wrote:

JaMarcus Russell may have been the worst bust in NFL history, IMO.

Agreed. Ryan Leaf is the only other player that comes close in my mind, but Russell edges him out for #1 since he was the first overall pick and Leaf was #2.

I'll have to look at some lists of top picks and really consider this though to be sure.... But Russell is definitely close to the top.

Russell, Leaf, and Vernon Gholston are my (top) 3.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

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airmax1227
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11/24/2014 1:21:12 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
If we look further into that draft we can see that Seabass furthermore wasn't all that bad of a pick when we weigh his productivity (the fact that he's been solid at the position for the team that drafted him for 15 seasons) versus those drafted just after him.

Pick 18 through 31:

Chad Pennington
Shaun Alexander
Stockar McDougle
Sylvester Morris
Chris McIntosh
Rashard Anderson
Ahmed Plummer
Chris Hovan
Erik Flowers
Anthony Becht
Rob Morris
R. Jay Soward
Keith Bulluck
Trung Canidate

Just look at that above list. Should the Raiders really have passed on a 15 year starter for any of those guys? Well sure, they could have drafted the only two pro bowlers among them, obviously Shuan Alexander, and then Keith Bullock.

But let's look at this realistically. Based on the Raiders needs that year (based on what they did draft) had they passed on Seabass, they would have gone after a WR. The best available was Sylvester Morris - 48 receptions, 678 years, 3 TDs. Seabass was the better pick. They did draft WR Jerry Porter in round 2 (295 receptions, 4120 yards 31 TDs) and he was clearly a better pick than Morris. Again, showing that Seabass was the better pick in round 1.

The Raiders also drafted 7 time Pro Bowler Punter Shane Lechler in 2000.

2000 might be the Raiders best draft since 1998.
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1harderthanyouthink
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11/24/2014 1:27:32 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/24/2014 1:21:12 AM, airmax1227 wrote:
If we look further into that draft we can see that Seabass furthermore wasn't all that bad of a pick when we weigh his productivity (the fact that he's been solid at the position for the team that drafted him for 15 seasons) versus those drafted just after him.

Pick 18 through 31:

Chad Pennington
Shaun Alexander
Stockar McDougle
Sylvester Morris
Chris McIntosh
Rashard Anderson
Ahmed Plummer
Chris Hovan
Erik Flowers
Anthony Becht
Rob Morris
R. Jay Soward
Keith Bulluck
Trung Canidate

Just look at that above list. Should the Raiders really have passed on a 15 year starter for any of those guys? Well sure, they could have drafted the only two pro bowlers among them, obviously Shuan Alexander, and then Keith Bullock.

But let's look at this realistically. Based on the Raiders needs that year (based on what they did draft) had they passed on Seabass, they would have gone after a WR. The best available was Sylvester Morris - 48 receptions, 678 years, 3 TDs. Seabass was the better pick. They did draft WR Jerry Porter in round 2 (295 receptions, 4120 yards 31 TDs) and he was clearly a better pick than Morris. Again, showing that Seabass was the better pick in round 1.

The Raiders also drafted 7 time Pro Bowler Punter Shane Lechler in 2000.

2000 might be the Raiders best draft since 1998.

Personally, I think Pennington was the best of those players. Alas, he got injured every other season.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

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airmax1227
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11/24/2014 1:37:44 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/24/2014 1:27:32 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:


Personally, I think Pennington was the best of those players. Alas, he got injured every other season.

He had a solid career, but only started all 16 games twice.

He had a 44-37 record. 102 TDs -64 ints. Career QB rating of 90.1.

His best season was arguably in 2008 when he threw for 3653 yards, 19 TDs, 7ints.

Injuries really ruined his career.

I'd argue Shuan Alexander was better, since he's likely to be in the Hall of Fame. 9453 rushing yards, 100 rushing TDs.

Jamal Lewis, Thomas Jones, and Plaxico Burress also had solid careers.

But if we are talking about the very best of that draft, it's definitely Tom Brady. Followed by Brian Urlacher, John Abraham, and Brad Meester.

Keith Bulluck actually compares well too since he was a 9 year starter - Raiders should have taken him.
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1harderthanyouthink
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11/24/2014 1:42:13 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/24/2014 1:37:44 AM, airmax1227 wrote:
At 11/24/2014 1:27:32 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:


Personally, I think Pennington was the best of those players. Alas, he got injured every other season.

He had a solid career, but only started all 16 games twice.

He had a 44-37 record. 102 TDs -64 ints. Career QB rating of 90.1.

His best season was arguably in 2008 when he threw for 3653 yards, 19 TDs, 7ints.

Injuries really ruined his career.

I'd argue Shuan Alexander was better, since he's likely to be in the Hall of Fame. 9453 rushing yards, 100 rushing TDs.

Jamal Lewis, Thomas Jones, and Plaxico Burress also had solid careers.

But if we are talking about the very best of that draft, it's definitely Tom Brady. Followed by Brian Urlacher, John Abraham, and Brad Meester.

I meant he was the best of the draft after the Raiders' first round pick, who would be considered for picking in the early rounds. In the full draft, it's definitely Brady, and even though he was drafted after their pick, it'd be unfair to say they should've gotten them, which is an easy thing to say in hindsight. Nobody thought the 199th overall pick would be that good.

Keith Bulluck actually compares well too since he was a 9 year starter - Raiders should have taken him.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

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airmax1227
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11/24/2014 1:49:47 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/24/2014 1:42:13 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 11/24/2014 1:37:44 AM, airmax1227 wrote:
At 11/24/2014 1:27:32 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:


Personally, I think Pennington was the best of those players. Alas, he got injured every other season.

He had a solid career, but only started all 16 games twice.

He had a 44-37 record. 102 TDs -64 ints. Career QB rating of 90.1.

His best season was arguably in 2008 when he threw for 3653 yards, 19 TDs, 7ints.

Injuries really ruined his career.

I'd argue Shuan Alexander was better, since he's likely to be in the Hall of Fame. 9453 rushing yards, 100 rushing TDs.

Jamal Lewis, Thomas Jones, and Plaxico Burress also had solid careers.

But if we are talking about the very best of that draft, it's definitely Tom Brady. Followed by Brian Urlacher, John Abraham, and Brad Meester.

I meant he was the best of the draft after the Raiders' first round pick, who would be considered for picking in the early rounds. In the full draft, it's definitely Brady, and even though he was drafted after their pick, it'd be unfair to say they should've gotten them, which is an easy thing to say in hindsight. Nobody thought the 199th overall pick would be that good.

I know, that's why I separated my commentary. I'd still argue Alexander would be a better pick than Pennington.

I actually thought Brady would be a much higher pick that year and was surprised to see him fall so far. The reason for that is only because I'm a Big-10 fan and he beat my Badgers that year knocking them out of national title contention, so I was following him closely at that point. Interestingly, Ron Dayne set the career record for rushing yards that year for the Badgers and was a high draft pick, but if the giants (who got to the superbowl that year and lost to the Ravens) had to do it again, I'm sure they would have taken Alexander instead of Dayne.

But of the players the Raiders could have taken, Alexander and Bullock are the only ones that come close. When you consider how likely they would have chosen a bust instead, Seabass doesn't seem all that bad - and that's the only point I'm ultimately making.

But to be fair to Ore_ele, the Raiders have had front office problems for awhile now and it's obvious, and I think that's the point he is making.
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Ore_Ele
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11/24/2014 1:51:56 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/24/2014 1:21:12 AM, airmax1227 wrote:
If we look further into that draft we can see that Seabass furthermore wasn't all that bad of a pick when we weigh his productivity (the fact that he's been solid at the position for the team that drafted him for 15 seasons) versus those drafted just after him.

Pick 18 through 31:

Chad Pennington
Shaun Alexander
Stockar McDougle
Sylvester Morris
Chris McIntosh
Rashard Anderson
Ahmed Plummer
Chris Hovan
Erik Flowers
Anthony Becht
Rob Morris
R. Jay Soward
Keith Bulluck
Trung Canidate

Just look at that above list. Should the Raiders really have passed on a 15 year starter for any of those guys? Well sure, they could have drafted the only two pro bowlers among them, obviously Shuan Alexander, and then Keith Bullock.

But let's look at this realistically. Based on the Raiders needs that year (based on what they did draft) had they passed on Seabass, they would have gone after a WR. The best available was Sylvester Morris - 48 receptions, 678 years, 3 TDs. Seabass was the better pick. They did draft WR Jerry Porter in round 2 (295 receptions, 4120 yards 31 TDs) and he was clearly a better pick than Morris. Again, showing that Seabass was the better pick in round 1.

The Raiders also drafted 7 time Pro Bowler Punter Shane Lechler in 2000.

2000 might be the Raiders best draft since 1998.

The question is, would Seabass have still been available in Round 2 or Round 3?

Granted, it wasn't the biggest waste of a pick, but you have to look at the likelihood that he will still be around for future picks, It is a waste to get someone with the R1 pick, if they will still be available R3. Granted, you cannot "know" that he will for sure, but is it a pretty safe bet that he will? Yes.
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airmax1227
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11/24/2014 1:56:30 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/24/2014 1:51:56 AM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 11/24/2014 1:21:12 AM, airmax1227 wrote:
If we look further into that draft we can see that Seabass furthermore wasn't all that bad of a pick when we weigh his productivity (the fact that he's been solid at the position for the team that drafted him for 15 seasons) versus those drafted just after him.

Pick 18 through 31:

Chad Pennington
Shaun Alexander
Stockar McDougle
Sylvester Morris
Chris McIntosh
Rashard Anderson
Ahmed Plummer
Chris Hovan
Erik Flowers
Anthony Becht
Rob Morris
R. Jay Soward
Keith Bulluck
Trung Canidate

Just look at that above list. Should the Raiders really have passed on a 15 year starter for any of those guys? Well sure, they could have drafted the only two pro bowlers among them, obviously Shuan Alexander, and then Keith Bullock.

But let's look at this realistically. Based on the Raiders needs that year (based on what they did draft) had they passed on Seabass, they would have gone after a WR. The best available was Sylvester Morris - 48 receptions, 678 years, 3 TDs. Seabass was the better pick. They did draft WR Jerry Porter in round 2 (295 receptions, 4120 yards 31 TDs) and he was clearly a better pick than Morris. Again, showing that Seabass was the better pick in round 1.

The Raiders also drafted 7 time Pro Bowler Punter Shane Lechler in 2000.

2000 might be the Raiders best draft since 1998.

The question is, would Seabass have still been available in Round 2 or Round 3?

Granted, it wasn't the biggest waste of a pick, but you have to look at the likelihood that he will still be around for future picks, It is a waste to get someone with the R1 pick, if they will still be available R3. Granted, you cannot "know" that he will for sure, but is it a pretty safe bet that he will? Yes.

Fair point. He probably would have been available. But considering that the Raiders would have drafted some bust instead given their track record (and we can analyze all day who they would have drafted instead, and I'm game for that), he's as good a pick for them as any.

(sorry, I'm just look for any excuse to browse through pro-football-reference - I honestly don't disagree with your overall point)
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Ore_Ele
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11/24/2014 1:57:33 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
Yes, that is the point. Not to say that he is a bad player or anything, just a comment on the head office for the Raiders. Anyway, digging through some of these R1 picks is kinda sad. Just finished 2000 (I'll probably be getting 1 year done every day or two, so it will be awhile). The players that bust quickly are the hardest to find stats on (that will probably get better as we get closer to the present, after all, back in 2000, we didn't record every little thing like we do now), so I have to dig through more stuff and find out more about them.
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airmax1227
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11/24/2014 2:40:54 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/24/2014 1:14:47 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 11/24/2014 1:09:49 AM, airmax1227 wrote:
At 11/24/2014 1:07:30 AM, 1harderthanyouthink wrote:
At 11/24/2014 1:02:29 AM, airmax1227 wrote:

JaMarcus Russell may have been the worst bust in NFL history, IMO.

Agreed. Ryan Leaf is the only other player that comes close in my mind, but Russell edges him out for #1 since he was the first overall pick and Leaf was #2.

I'll have to look at some lists of top picks and really consider this though to be sure.... But Russell is definitely close to the top.

Russell, Leaf, and Vernon Gholston are my (top) 3.

Let's keep this just to QBs for a moment.

If we look at QBs drafted in the top 5 from 1990-2010 that should give us a decent place to start.

2010: Sam Bradford, 1st overall
2009: Matthew Stafford, 1
2009: Mark Sanchez, 5
2008: Matt Ryan, 3
2007: JaMarcus Russell, 1
2006: Vince Young, 3
2005: Alex Smith, 1
2004: Eli Manning, 1
2004: Philip Rivers, 4
2003: Carson Palmer, 1
2002: David Carr, 1
2001: Michael Vick, 1
1999: Tim Couch, 1
1999: Donovan McNabb, 2
1999: Akili Smith, 3
1998: Peyton Manning, 1
1998: Ryan Leaf, 2
1995: Steve McNair, 3
1995: Kerry Collins, 5
1994: Heath Shuler, 3
1993: Drew Bledsoe, 1
1993: Rick Mirer, 2
1990: Jeff George, 1

Let's pull from the above list the obvious busts - we'll leave alone the borderline players (The Jeff George, Alex Smith, Mark Sanchez etc types)

2007: JaMarcus Russell, 1
2006: Vince Young, 3
2002: David Carr, 1
1999: Tim Couch, 1
1999: Akili Smith, 3
1998: Ryan Leaf, 2
1994: Heath Shuler, 3
1993: Rick Mirer, 2

I think we can remove the #3 picks here. They may have been busts, but they aren't at the top since they weren't among the highest draft picks.

2007: JaMarcus Russell, 1
2002: David Carr, 1
1999: Tim Couch, 1
1998: Ryan Leaf, 2
1993: Rick Mirer, 2

That leaves us with what can fairly be consider a top 5 of all time QB busts. But we can break it down further since the #2 picks, as much as they will set a franchise back, still don't compare to missing on the 1st overall pick. Leaving us with....

2007: JaMarcus Russell, 1
2002: David Carr, 1
1999: Tim Couch, 1

...

Tim Couch

Tim Couch was intended to be the face of the new Browns and is as much a bust as anyone. He started the trend of the Browns being "QB killers". Let's check out who the Browns have destroyed at QB by drafting them:

1999: Tim Couch, 1
2004: Luke McCown, 106
2005: Charlie Frye, 67
2007: Brady Quinn, 22
2010: Colt McCoy, 85
2012: Brandon Weeden, 22
2014: Johnny Manziel, 22

(This isn't just a list of Browns QB busts, this is really all of the QBs the Browns have drafted)

The jury is out on Johnny Manziel, but with that kind of track record, safe money isn't on Johnny football.

The Browns really haven't put much together since reinstatement into the league, and it all started with their first pick, and first bust, with Tim Couch.

....

David Carr

A similar case can be made for David Carr. The face of an expansion team that never really turned out. Luckily for the Texans though, they did better in free agency than the Browns and have seen more recent success.

Ultimately though, both are first overall busts that seemed like they couldn't miss.

....

JaMarcus Russell

JaMarcus though was in a far better position to succeed than the other two QBs on this list since he wasn't joining an expansion team. Though he was out of the league in just 3 years.

...

So who was the biggest bust of all 3?

Russell 4083 18TDs, 23 ints
Carr 14452 65 - 71
Couch 11131 64 - 67

Seems pretty clear that based on stats and draft position it's Russell.

However, based on stats, Leaf is definitely a contender (plus he was a head case and also out of the league in 3 years):

Ryan Leaf: 3666 14 36

So based on this data, I guess my original statement above "Ryan Leaf is the only other player that comes close in my mind, but Russell edges him out for #1 since he was the first overall pick and Leaf was #2." was pretty much accurate based on the data I just provided... So I guess there really wasn't much point to that.

Vernon Gholston was definitely a huge bust, but since he was drafted at #6 overall and a LB, I'd have to look at a lot more data to know exactly where he ranks.

Just off the top of my head I can think of other busts that might outrank him:

Curtis Enis, RB, 5th overall
Troy Williamson, WR, 7th overall
Jason Smith, T, 2nd overall
Justin Blackmon, WR, 5th overall
Johnathan Sullivan, DT, 6th overall

I think Gholston is safely in the top ten though if we aren't including the entire list of QB busts.
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airmax1227
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11/24/2014 2:48:25 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/24/2014 1:57:33 AM, Ore_Ele wrote:
Yes, that is the point. Not to say that he is a bad player or anything, just a comment on the head office for the Raiders. Anyway, digging through some of these R1 picks is kinda sad. Just finished 2000 (I'll probably be getting 1 year done every day or two, so it will be awhile). The players that bust quickly are the hardest to find stats on (that will probably get better as we get closer to the present, after all, back in 2000, we didn't record every little thing like we do now), so I have to dig through more stuff and find out more about them.

I don't disagree with your point about the Raiders. Though keep in mind that in 2002 they had the leagues best offense and went to the superbowl (getting blown out by the Bucs). Since then though, it's been pretty much all bad news for them, and it's definitely partly because of terrible front office moves.

Since 2002 they haven't had a winning season, and aside from back to back 8-8 seasons in 10-11, they've otherwise failed to win more than 5 games in any of those other years. Tough time to be a Raiders fan.
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Ore_Ele
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11/24/2014 7:27:29 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
Since we are now talking about busts, if you consider it to be a huge factor to be a #1 overall vs a #2 overall, where would you put RG3? Even though he was a #2 overall, he was really more than that given what the Redskins traded to get him. He did have a great rookie season (winning the division and ROTY) but has since been completely irrelevant and my be out of being a starter within 5 years.
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airmax1227
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11/24/2014 10:34:40 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/24/2014 7:27:29 AM, Ore_Ele wrote:
Since we are now talking about busts, if you consider it to be a huge factor to be a #1 overall vs a #2 overall, where would you put RG3? Even though he was a #2 overall, he was really more than that given what the Redskins traded to get him. He did have a great rookie season (winning the division and ROTY) but has since been completely irrelevant and my be out of being a starter within 5 years.

I'm not saying it's a huge factor, but we have to narrow it down somehow. I do believe being a bust with the #1 overall pick is more significant than #2 though.

It's far too early to tell if RG3 is an "elite bust". At the moment, assuming he plays poorly for the rest of a short career, I'd put him in the Vince Young category of busts.
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