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College Football Bowl Games

Ore_Ele
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12/7/2014 10:54:39 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
For the few out there that love pointless statistics, like me (or just love looking at us and thinking "how can anyone be that weird?")

Obviously the bowl games have not been completed, but we can get a view of balanced they may or may not be. The betting lines are not yet established.

http://espn.go.com...

===Pac 12===

They have 8 teams playing, including 1 in the playoffs. The combined record is 71-28 and the combined record of the teams they are playing is 74-24. The thing that bothers me the most about this, is that there are no Pac-12 vs SEC bowl games (unless both Oregon and Alabama make it to the Championship game). The Pac-12 does face two non-Power 5 opponents. Boise State (11-2, the highest ranked Group of 5 team) and Colorado State (10-2). They have no teams with only 6 wins.

Only 1 team is playing someone with a worse record than them. Washington (8-5) vs Oklahoma State (6-6). Four teams are playing someone with a better record. Oregon (12-1) vs FSU (13-0), Arizona (10-3) vs Boise State (11-2), USC (8-4) vs Nebraska (9-3), and Utah (8-4) vs Colorado State (10-2).

===SEC===

They have 12 (of their 14) teams playing, including 1 in the playoffs. The combined record is 97-48 and the combined record of their opponents is 101-46. Despite having 4 teams with only 6 wins, only 2 of their opponents have only 6 wins. They are playing two non-Power 5 opponents. Notre Dame (7-5) and East Carolina (8-4).

There are 3 teams that playing someone with a worse record. Mississippi State (10-2) vs Georgia Tech (10-3), Missouri (10-3) vs Minnesota (8-4) and LSU (8-4) vs Notre Dame (7-5). There are 4 teams playing someone with a better record. Ole Miss (9-3) vs TCU (11-1), Auburn (8-4) vs Wisconsin (10-3), Florida (6-5) vs East Carolina (8-4), and Tennessee (6-6) vs Iowa (7-5).

===ACC===

They have 11 teams with 1 in the playoffs. The combined record is 88-46 and the opponents are 92-41. They do face 3 non-power 5 opponents. UCF (9-3), Houston (7-5), and Cincinnati (9-3). They also have 4 teams playing with only 6 wins.

There are 3 teams that are facing teams with worse records. FSU (13-0) vs Oregon (12-1), Clemson (9-3) vs Oklahoma (8-4), and Boston College (7-5) vs Penn State (6-6). They have 5 teams that are facing someone with a better record (only 2 are from the power 5). Georgia Tech (10-3) vs Miss State (10-2), NC State (7-5) vs UCF (9-3), North Carolina (6-6) vs Rutgers (7-5), Pittsburgh (6-6) vs Houston (7-5), and Virginia Tech (6-6) vs Cincinnati (9-3).

===Big Ten===

They have 10 games and 1 in the playoffs. They have a combined record of 82-40. Their opponents are 83-40. They face only 1 non-power 5. Louisiana Tech (8-5).

They have 4 teams facing someone with a lower record. Wisconsin (10-3) vs Auburn (8-4), Nebraska (9-3) vs USC (8-4), Iowa (7-5) vs Tennessee (6-6), and Rutgers (7-5) vs North Carolina (6-6). They have 4 games where they face someone with a better record. Michigan State (10-2) vs Baylor (11-1), Minnesota (8-4) vs Missouri (10-3), Illinois (6-6) vs Louisiana Tech (8-5), and Penn State (6-6) vs Boston College (7-5).

===Big 12===

They have 7 teams in bowl games, but none in the playoffs (Sorry TCU and Baylor, lol). They have a combined record of 58-26. Their opponents are 58-27. They do not face anyone outside of the Power 5.

Only two teams play someone with a worse record. Baylor (11-1) vs Michigan State (10-2) and TCU (11-1) vs Ole Miss (9-3). They also have 2 teams playing someone with a better record. Oklahoma (8-4) vs Clemson (9-3) and Oklahoma State (6-6) vs Washington (8-5).
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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12/7/2014 11:12:35 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
I've made predictions for wins and losses for all games (other than non-power 5 vs non-power 5 games, there are a few). The ones that I'm scratching my head the most over are the non-power 5 games.

ND (7-5) vs LSU (8-4)
Boise State (11-2) vs Arizona (10-3)
Colorado State (10-2) vs Utah (8-4)
East Carolina (8-4) vs Florida (6-5)
UCF (9-3) vs NC State (7-5)
Houston (7-5) vs Pittsburgh (6-6)
Cincinnati (9-3) vs Virginia Tech (6-6)
Louisiana Tech (8-5) vs Illinois (6-6)

Right now, I'm thinking that only Cincinnati and UCF will win, but that may be stretching. I don't know the group of 5 that well.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
birdlandmemories
Posts: 4,140
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12/8/2014 10:27:59 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 12/7/2014 11:12:35 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
I've made predictions for wins and losses for all games (other than non-power 5 vs non-power 5 games, there are a few). The ones that I'm scratching my head the most over are the non-power 5 games.

ND (7-5) vs LSU (8-4)
Boise State (11-2) vs Arizona (10-3)
Colorado State (10-2) vs Utah (8-4)
East Carolina (8-4) vs Florida (6-5)
UCF (9-3) vs NC State (7-5)
Houston (7-5) vs Pittsburgh (6-6)
Cincinnati (9-3) vs Virginia Tech (6-6)
Louisiana Tech (8-5) vs Illinois (6-6)

Right now, I'm thinking that only Cincinnati and UCF will win, but that may be stretching. I don't know the group of 5 that well.

Louisiana Tech and East Carolina can be good one week, bad the next. Louisiana Tech lost in OT to ODU then crushed Rice by 45. East Carolina lost to Temple 20-3 yet somehow beat 2 ACC teams including a win at Virginia Tech. Also, Georgia Southern should be in a bowl.
Ashton
TN05
Posts: 4,492
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12/8/2014 10:57:47 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 12/8/2014 10:27:59 PM, birdlandmemories wrote:
At 12/7/2014 11:12:35 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
I've made predictions for wins and losses for all games (other than non-power 5 vs non-power 5 games, there are a few). The ones that I'm scratching my head the most over are the non-power 5 games.

ND (7-5) vs LSU (8-4)
Boise State (11-2) vs Arizona (10-3)
Colorado State (10-2) vs Utah (8-4)
East Carolina (8-4) vs Florida (6-5)
UCF (9-3) vs NC State (7-5)
Houston (7-5) vs Pittsburgh (6-6)
Cincinnati (9-3) vs Virginia Tech (6-6)
Louisiana Tech (8-5) vs Illinois (6-6)

Right now, I'm thinking that only Cincinnati and UCF will win, but that may be stretching. I don't know the group of 5 that well.

Louisiana Tech and East Carolina can be good one week, bad the next. Louisiana Tech lost in OT to ODU then crushed Rice by 45. East Carolina lost to Temple 20-3 yet somehow beat 2 ACC teams including a win at Virginia Tech. Also, Georgia Southern should be in a bowl.

Agreed, and I'm an Appalachian State fan (GSU's biggest rival). There are three FCS transition teams that should be bowl eligible - Georgia Southern (9-3, Sun Belt Champs), Appalachian State (7-5), and Old Dominion (6-6). I'm not saying all three should be given a bowl invite, but it's absurd that they can't at least be eligible for one.
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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12/9/2014 12:13:30 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 12/8/2014 10:57:47 PM, TN05 wrote:
At 12/8/2014 10:27:59 PM, birdlandmemories wrote:
At 12/7/2014 11:12:35 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
I've made predictions for wins and losses for all games (other than non-power 5 vs non-power 5 games, there are a few). The ones that I'm scratching my head the most over are the non-power 5 games.

ND (7-5) vs LSU (8-4)
Boise State (11-2) vs Arizona (10-3)
Colorado State (10-2) vs Utah (8-4)
East Carolina (8-4) vs Florida (6-5)
UCF (9-3) vs NC State (7-5)
Houston (7-5) vs Pittsburgh (6-6)
Cincinnati (9-3) vs Virginia Tech (6-6)
Louisiana Tech (8-5) vs Illinois (6-6)

Right now, I'm thinking that only Cincinnati and UCF will win, but that may be stretching. I don't know the group of 5 that well.

Louisiana Tech and East Carolina can be good one week, bad the next. Louisiana Tech lost in OT to ODU then crushed Rice by 45. East Carolina lost to Temple 20-3 yet somehow beat 2 ACC teams including a win at Virginia Tech. Also, Georgia Southern should be in a bowl.

Agreed, and I'm an Appalachian State fan (GSU's biggest rival). There are three FCS transition teams that should be bowl eligible - Georgia Southern (9-3, Sun Belt Champs), Appalachian State (7-5), and Old Dominion (6-6). I'm not saying all three should be given a bowl invite, but it's absurd that they can't at least be eligible for one.

They might be in bowl games. I didn't look at Group of 5 vs Group of 5, only Group of 5 vs Power 5.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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12/9/2014 12:20:15 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
So, I'm going off the initial Vegas prediction, not the adjustments they make off betting patterns going up (since I don't want to waste so much time of re-checking the entire bowl season).

http://www.vegasinsider.com...

Vegas apparently hates everyone other than the Pac-12 and SEC.

They are predicting the Pac-12 of going 7-1 and the SEC going 12-0 in bowl games. The ACC as 2-8, the Big Ten as a shocking 0-10 and the Big 12 as 3-3 (for some reason, there is nothing for Oklahoma vs West Virginia yet, so that game is not factored in).

Interesting, the non-Power 5 are predicted to be 3-5 (they have LA Tech over Illinois by 3, whom I am predicting a lose).
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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12/9/2014 12:23:30 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
Based on how they have the win predictions, it may not be surprising that they have the Pac-12 as the best Offense (estimated 33 points per bowl game) and second best Defense (estimated at 27 points per bowl game) while the SEC is the second best Offense (at 30.5 points per bowl game) and the best Defense (at 25 points per game). Of course, with no SEC vs Pac-12 bowl games at all, it is hard to really say.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
Ore_Ele
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12/17/2014 10:26:34 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
So Vegas has adjusted a bit.

Pac-12 - 7-1 (average score 33.4 - 27.5)
SEC - 9-3 (average 30.5 - 26.1)
ACC - 4-7 (27.4 - 29.6)
Big Ten - 0-10 (25.2 - 31.5) (Vegas does not like them at all)
Big 12 - 5-2 (29.3 - 29.1)
Non-Power 5 (only in their games against Power 5) - 3-5 (27.1 - 28.8)
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
lannan13
Posts: 23,017
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12/20/2014 8:01:03 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 12/19/2014 11:39:02 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
We really need more sports people on this site.

We could do a DDO college Bowl picker thing like what we did with fantasy football.
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slo1
Posts: 4,314
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12/30/2014 9:08:31 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
Ole Miss - TCU is going to be a good game. Ole Miss started hot in the season and has since cooled off. A great defense, but I don't think they saw a passing team like TCU. Boykin is a machine and will pull it out. That could be a good game to call the upset though. TCU 28 Ole Miss 24

Another good upset call could be Ohio St. They trounced some good defenses this year (MI St. WI, and even MN), although not Alabama good. That game is another good match up offense verses defense. It is sticking the neck out to go BIG10 on that one but what the hell. OH St has good enough offense specially rushing which can keep them in the game. OH st. 36 AL 34

FL St is not getting any respect. OR is the best overall team. They have it all, but a shoot out it is going to be. Even with FL St's lack of run game I think this is going to closer than everyone thinks IF Winston does not huck up a bunch of interceptions. Still have to go with OR though.

MI St defense better on paper than really is. Baylor crushes them.

MS St has well rounded offense and that SEC defense. I wonder how well they will handle Georgia Tech's run game. MS St has yet to meet a team like GA Tech, but you have to go with SEC over ACC just on principle.

Last but not least the Gophers who are in a new years day bowl for the first time since the 60's will gnaw and chip away at the Tigers in a defensive battle of wills. Probably something like 100-3 . Yeahhhhhh baby!
Ore_Ele
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12/31/2014 5:53:40 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 12/30/2014 9:08:31 AM, slo1 wrote:
Ole Miss - TCU is going to be a good game. Ole Miss started hot in the season and has since cooled off. A great defense, but I don't think they saw a passing team like TCU. Boykin is a machine and will pull it out. That could be a good game to call the upset though. TCU 28 Ole Miss 24

Well, we both had the right winner, but not as predicted.

Another good upset call could be Ohio St. They trounced some good defenses this year (MI St. WI, and even MN), although not Alabama good. That game is another good match up offense verses defense. It is sticking the neck out to go BIG10 on that one but what the hell. OH St has good enough offense specially rushing which can keep them in the game. OH st. 36 AL 34

It is hard to make any reasonable prediction on this with a 3rd string QB that has only seen one game.


FL St is not getting any respect. OR is the best overall team. They have it all, but a shoot out it is going to be. Even with FL St's lack of run game I think this is going to closer than everyone thinks IF Winston does not huck up a bunch of interceptions. Still have to go with OR though.

MI St defense better on paper than really is. Baylor crushes them.


MS St has well rounded offense and that SEC defense. I wonder how well they will handle Georgia Tech's run game. MS St has yet to meet a team like GA Tech, but you have to go with SEC over ACC just on principle.

Last but not least the Gophers who are in a new years day bowl for the first time since the 60's will gnaw and chip away at the Tigers in a defensive battle of wills. Probably something like 100-3 . Yeahhhhhh baby!
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"