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Go for it on fourth down!

R0b1Billion
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9/18/2016 2:34:21 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
There was a college coach who was trying to make the argument that you should go for it on 4th down nearly every time. I think this is a fantastic idea. The jaguars converted three 4th downs against the packers last week (two 4th & 5s and a 4th and 3).

Football used to be a lot more about field position but that has changed. Unless you are going to pin a team behind the 5 yard line or so, it's more about simply using your possessions to score or wasting them. From a statistics standpoint, you must compare your shot at converting 4th down versus the difference in percentage of a team NOT scoring due to the extra field position you take away from them during a punt.

With 4 downs your offense becomes much more likely to score, more likely than it is that the other team will lose points due to a punt. Unless it is 4th and long or you are backed up already in the red zone, I think teams ought to punt less and take advantage of that extra down to break the other team's back by sustaining the drive and keeping their defense on the field instead of your own.
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ColeTrain
Posts: 4,292
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9/19/2016 3:50:36 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/18/2016 2:34:21 AM, R0b1Billion wrote:
There was a college coach who was trying to make the argument that you should go for it on 4th down nearly every time. I think this is a fantastic idea. The jaguars converted three 4th downs against the packers last week (two 4th & 5s and a 4th and 3).

Football used to be a lot more about field position but that has changed. Unless you are going to pin a team behind the 5 yard line or so, it's more about simply using your possessions to score or wasting them. From a statistics standpoint, you must compare your shot at converting 4th down versus the difference in percentage of a team NOT scoring due to the extra field position you take away from them during a punt.

With 4 downs your offense becomes much more likely to score, more likely than it is that the other team will lose points due to a punt. Unless it is 4th and long or you are backed up already in the red zone, I think teams ought to punt less and take advantage of that extra down to break the other team's back by sustaining the drive and keeping their defense on the field instead of your own.

I agree. There are plenty of times they waste a chance. 4th and 1 especially. Go for it!

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Danielle
Posts: 21,330
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9/19/2016 5:22:13 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
I agree that you should almost always go for it, especially if you have 5 yards or less.

Obviously if you are very close to your own goal line that's a different story.

But overall they should go for it more than they do, and I think it's becoming more common as well it should.
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