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The Singularity

MouthWash
Posts: 2,607
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4/21/2012 12:37:18 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
I don't believe in it at all. Saying Moore's Law will go on till 2045 is ridiculous.

Gordon Moore: "It can't continue forever. The nature of exponentials is that you push them out and eventually disaster happens."
"Well, that gives whole new meaning to my assassination. If I was going to die anyway, perhaps I should leave the Bolsheviks' descendants some Christmas cookies instead of breaking their dishes and vodka bottles in their sleep." -Tsar Nicholas II (YYW)
THEBOMB
Posts: 2,872
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4/21/2012 9:13:28 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 4/21/2012 12:37:18 PM, MouthWash wrote:
I don't believe in it at all. Saying Moore's Law will go on till 2045 is ridiculous.

Gordon Moore: "It can't continue forever. The nature of exponentials is that you push them out and eventually disaster happens."

2045 is not forever.
MouthWash
Posts: 2,607
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4/22/2012 5:58:47 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
Actually it's probably going to stop at around 2015-2020, according to Moore. The singularity believers rely on there being another convenient way to shrink computers (nanotechnology or carbon based) available after that period.
"Well, that gives whole new meaning to my assassination. If I was going to die anyway, perhaps I should leave the Bolsheviks' descendants some Christmas cookies instead of breaking their dishes and vodka bottles in their sleep." -Tsar Nicholas II (YYW)
Logic_on_rails
Posts: 2,445
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4/22/2012 6:39:42 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
Well, this depends on when quantum computers start working, if ever.

Up till recently silicon transistors kept being made smaller. Unfortunately, this process is reaching the point where transistors can't be made smaller lest they become molecules and the process breaks down. Also, the Heisenbergy uncertainty principle is a limitation on computer speed.

Of course, we're now using multiple cores as opposed to 1. How many more cores will we try and use before somebody makes another major advance?

Yes, Moore's Law is somewhat flawed.
"Tis not in mortals to command success
But we"ll do more, Sempronius, we"ll deserve it
Eitan_Zohar
Posts: 2,697
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7/29/2013 11:41:22 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
...four thousand posts total? I feel freaking old.
"It is my ambition to say in ten sentences what others say in a whole book."
ConservativePolitico
Posts: 8,210
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7/30/2013 1:32:42 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 7/29/2013 11:41:22 PM, Eitan_Zohar wrote:
...four thousand posts total? I feel freaking old.

Tell me about it. I'm pushing 150 debates and 6k forum posts.
Jack212
Posts: 572
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7/30/2013 1:49:39 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
A technological singularity is like a gravitational singularity. A gravitational singularity is an object that has collapsed under its own weight to infinite density. A technological singularity is where advancement occurs so fast that it's instant. Both would need to pass a threshold where the forces keeping the system from collapse are overwhelmed. For gravitational singularities, that resistance is provided by the repulsion between particles. For technological singularities, I suspect it's the human factor. Once you had a machine smart enough to understand the principles of computing and therefore upgrade itself, there would be nothing to stop it from doing so. A singularity doesn't mean we can't predict results, it just means we need a different theory to explain it. So the question is: what method would we use to predict results once AI went crazy?
Eitan_Zohar
Posts: 2,697
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8/1/2013 9:57:54 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 7/30/2013 1:49:39 AM, Jack212 wrote:
A technological singularity is like a gravitational singularity. A gravitational singularity is an object that has collapsed under its own weight to infinite density. A technological singularity is where advancement occurs so fast that it's instant. Both would need to pass a threshold where the forces keeping the system from collapse are overwhelmed. For gravitational singularities, that resistance is provided by the repulsion between particles. For technological singularities, I suspect it's the human factor. Once you had a machine smart enough to understand the principles of computing and therefore upgrade itself, there would be nothing to stop it from doing so. A singularity doesn't mean we can't predict results, it just means we need a different theory to explain it. So the question is: what method would we use to predict results once AI went crazy?

Think you got all of them: http://yudkowsky.net...
"It is my ambition to say in ten sentences what others say in a whole book."
AdamValerius
Posts: 1
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7/29/2014 7:46:52 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/22/2012 6:39:42 AM, Logic_on_rails wrote:
Unfortunately, this process is reaching the point where transistors can't be made smaller lest they become molecules and the process breaks down. Also, the Heisenbergy uncertainty principle is a limitation on computer speed.

I found this very reassuring about the Singularity. I hope damn well technologists reach limits that prevent technology from going as far as Kurzweil and his followers believe it will.
9spaceking
Posts: 4,213
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7/29/2014 8:53:44 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 7/30/2013 1:32:42 AM, ConservativePolitico wrote:
At 7/29/2013 11:41:22 PM, Eitan_Zohar wrote:
...four thousand posts total? I feel freaking old.

Tell me about it. I'm pushing 150 debates and 6k forum posts.

wow....that's impressive
Equestrian election
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This House would impose democracy
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Reign of Terror is unjustified
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Raise min. wage to $10.10
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ChosenWolff
Posts: 3,361
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7/29/2014 9:02:17 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 7/29/2014 8:53:44 PM, 9spaceking wrote:
At 7/30/2013 1:32:42 AM, ConservativePolitico wrote:
At 7/29/2013 11:41:22 PM, Eitan_Zohar wrote:
...four thousand posts total? I feel freaking old.

Tell me about it. I'm pushing 150 debates and 6k forum posts.

wow....that's impressive
loonln
How about NO elections?

#onlyonedeb8
9spaceking
Posts: 4,213
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8/1/2014 7:15:31 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/21/2012 12:37:18 PM, MouthWash wrote:
I don't believe in it at all. Saying Moore's Law will go on till 2045 is ridiculous.
what's Moore's law

Gordon Moore: "It can't continue forever. The nature of exponentials is that you push them out and eventually disaster happens."
Equestrian election
http://www.debate.org...

This House would impose democracy
http://www.debate.org...

Reign of Terror is unjustified
http://www.debate.org...

Raise min. wage to $10.10
http://www.debate.org...