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Predicting the future:

1Devilsadvocate
Posts: 1,518
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3/20/2013 2:20:48 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
This Software Can Analyze News And Predict Disease, Violence, And Disaster

Researchers from Microsoft and the Technion-Israel Institute of Technology have developed software that can predict when and where outbreaks might occur, Tom Simonite of MIT Technology Review reports.
The system, which taps into 22 years worth of archives from The New York Times, works by identifying and analyzing clues from news reports and more than 90 other data sources from the web.
The prototype software can predict things like disease outbreaks, violence, and natural disasters.
For example, when tested on historical data from 2006, the system correctly predicted a cholera outbreak based on reports of droughts in Angola. The software is right between 70 to 90 percent of the time.
Eric Horvitz, a scientist and co-director at Microsoft Research, told Simonite that a refined version of the system could be used in real settings to help experts prepare for emergency and humanitarian response, for example.

http://www.businessinsider.com...
I cannot write in English, because of the treacherous spelling. When I am reading, I only hear it and am unable to remember what the written word looks like."
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vbaculum
Posts: 1,274
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3/21/2013 12:08:20 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 3/20/2013 2:20:48 PM, 1Devilsadvocate wrote:
This Software Can Analyze News And Predict Disease, Violence, And Disaster

Researchers from Microsoft and the Technion-Israel Institute of Technology have developed software that can predict when and where outbreaks might occur, Tom Simonite of MIT Technology Review reports.
The system, which taps into 22 years worth of archives from The New York Times, works by identifying and analyzing clues from news reports and more than 90 other data sources from the web.
The prototype software can predict things like disease outbreaks, violence, and natural disasters.
For example, when tested on historical data from 2006, the system correctly predicted a cholera outbreak based on reports of droughts in Angola. The software is right between 70 to 90 percent of the time.
Eric Horvitz, a scientist and co-director at Microsoft Research, told Simonite that a refined version of the system could be used in real settings to help experts prepare for emergency and humanitarian response, for example.


http://www.businessinsider.com...

I've been studying some of the machining learning techniques they are likely using to do this. It's a very interesting field and I think a lot of advances in AI are yet to come based on these algorithms.

However, this isn't the first time I've heard a story like this. These technologies are a lot like Nostradamus: good a predicting things after they've happened.
"If you claim to value nonviolence and you consume animal products, you need to rethink your position on nonviolence." - Gary Francione

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malcolmxy
Posts: 2,855
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3/21/2013 2:09:22 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
Drought is a precursor to disease.

I'm gonna file that under "N" for No Sh!t, Sherlock.
War is over, if you want it.

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malcolmxy
Posts: 2,855
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3/21/2013 2:20:02 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 3/21/2013 12:08:20 PM, vbaculum wrote:

I've been studying some of the machining learning techniques they are likely using to do this. It's a very interesting field and I think a lot of advances in AI are yet to come based on these algorithms.

However, this isn't the first time I've heard a story like this. These technologies are a lot like Nostradamus: good a predicting things after they've happened.

AI is going to come from organic computers, not algorithms.

I can't find the video I had seen previously, but it was a video of a robot named O.S.C.A.R., and it had 8 legs. The engineers would disable on of its legs and it would learn, on the fly, how to continue its locomotion with 7, then 6, then 5 and so on legs (after it ripped off the defective limb each time)

Because they rewarded the robot's "brain" with an electrical pulse which had a similar effect to what a human would receive after ingesting cocaine, the robot was relentless in achieving its goal and even feverishly tried to figure out a way to continue moving toward that goal when it only had one leg remaining.

AI scares the living sh!t out of me.
War is over, if you want it.

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1Devilsadvocate
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3/21/2013 10:53:45 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 3/21/2013 2:20:02 PM, malcolmxy wrote:
At 3/21/2013 12:08:20 PM, vbaculum wrote:

I've been studying some of the machining learning techniques they are likely using to do this. It's a very interesting field and I think a lot of advances in AI are yet to come based on these algorithms.

However, this isn't the first time I've heard a story like this. These technologies are a lot like Nostradamus: good a predicting things after they've happened.

AI is going to come from organic computers, not algorithms.

I can't find the video I had seen previously, but it was a video of a robot named O.S.C.A.R., and it had 8 legs. The engineers would disable on of its legs and it would learn, on the fly, how to continue its locomotion with 7, then 6, then 5 and so on legs (after it ripped off the defective limb each time)

Because they rewarded the robot's "brain" with an electrical pulse which had a similar effect to what a human would receive after ingesting cocaine, the robot was relentless in achieving its goal and even feverishly tried to figure out a way to continue moving toward that goal when it only had one leg remaining.

AI scares the living sh!t out of me.

Oh, you must mean this:
http://www.myspace.com... :)

Here's a different one, it had 4 or 6 legs:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com...
http://cdn.intechopen.com...
I cannot write in English, because of the treacherous spelling. When I am reading, I only hear it and am unable to remember what the written word looks like."
"Albert Einstein

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malcolmxy
Posts: 2,855
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3/22/2013 12:29:11 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 3/21/2013 10:53:45 PM, 1Devilsadvocate wrote:
At 3/21/2013 2:20:02 PM, malcolmxy wrote:
At 3/21/2013 12:08:20 PM, vbaculum wrote:

I've been studying some of the machining learning techniques they are likely using to do this. It's a very interesting field and I think a lot of advances in AI are yet to come based on these algorithms.

However, this isn't the first time I've heard a story like this. These technologies are a lot like Nostradamus: good a predicting things after they've happened.

AI is going to come from organic computers, not algorithms.

I can't find the video I had seen previously, but it was a video of a robot named O.S.C.A.R., and it had 8 legs. The engineers would disable on of its legs and it would learn, on the fly, how to continue its locomotion with 7, then 6, then 5 and so on legs (after it ripped off the defective limb each time)

Because they rewarded the robot's "brain" with an electrical pulse which had a similar effect to what a human would receive after ingesting cocaine, the robot was relentless in achieving its goal and even feverishly tried to figure out a way to continue moving toward that goal when it only had one leg remaining.

AI scares the living sh!t out of me.

Oh, you must mean this:
http://www.myspace.com... :)

Here's a different one, it had 4 or 6 legs:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com...

OK...that was pretty f*cking cool.

http://cdn.intechopen.com...

YES!!! That is the monster I see in my nightmares.
War is over, if you want it.

Meet Dr. Stupid and his assistants - http://www.debate.org...
sadolite
Posts: 8,838
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3/23/2013 9:33:54 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
The program uses the "New York Times" as a source? Are you f-ing kidding me. Bwahaahaahaaa

Why didn't it predict the past 100% correct every time? It is obvious it was given way more accurate input than if unknowns are used like it will be required for the future. Computers tell you what you want them to tell you. Alga rhythms are written to produce desired results not unwanted results.
It's not your views that divide us, it's what you think my views should be that divides us.

If you think I will give up my rights and forsake social etiquette to make you "FEEL" better you are sadly mistaken

If liberal democrats would just stop shooting people gun violence would drop by 90%
malcolmxy
Posts: 2,855
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3/24/2013 3:18:15 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 3/23/2013 9:33:54 PM, sadolite wrote:
The program uses the "New York Times" as a source? Are you f-ing kidding me. Bwahaahaahaaa

Why didn't it predict the past 100% correct every time? It is obvious it was given way more accurate input than if unknowns are used like it will be required for the future. Computers tell you what you want them to tell you. Alga rhythms are written to produce desired results not unwanted results.

Are you saying weather reporting has a liberal bias?
War is over, if you want it.

Meet Dr. Stupid and his assistants - http://www.debate.org...
cybertron1998
Posts: 5,818
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3/24/2013 11:35:50 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 3/20/2013 2:20:48 PM, 1Devilsadvocate wrote:
This Software Can Analyze News And Predict Disease, Violence, And Disaster

Researchers from Microsoft and the Technion-Israel Institute of Technology have developed software that can predict when and where outbreaks might occur, Tom Simonite of MIT Technology Review reports.
The system, which taps into 22 years worth of archives from The New York Times, works by identifying and analyzing clues from news reports and more than 90 other data sources from the web.
The prototype software can predict things like disease outbreaks, violence, and natural disasters.
For example, when tested on historical data from 2006, the system correctly predicted a cholera outbreak based on reports of droughts in Angola. The software is right between 70 to 90 percent of the time.
Eric Horvitz, a scientist and co-director at Microsoft Research, told Simonite that a refined version of the system could be used in real settings to help experts prepare for emergency and humanitarian response, for example.


http://www.businessinsider.com...

ok it can predict bad things but it probably will mess up. no machine is perfect
Epsilon: There are so many stories where some brave hero decides to give their life to save the day, and because of their sacrifice, the good guys win, the survivors all cheer, and everybody lives happily ever after. But the hero... never gets to see that ending. They'll never know if their sacrifice actually made a difference. They'll never know if the day was really saved. In the end, they just have to have faith.
sadolite
Posts: 8,838
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3/30/2013 9:12:59 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 3/24/2013 3:18:15 AM, malcolmxy wrote:
At 3/23/2013 9:33:54 PM, sadolite wrote:
The program uses the "New York Times" as a source? Are you f-ing kidding me. Bwahaahaahaaa

Why didn't it predict the past 100% correct every time? It is obvious it was given way more accurate input than if unknowns are used like it will be required for the future. Computers tell you what you want them to tell you. Alga rhythms are written to produce desired results not unwanted results.

Are you saying weather reporting has a liberal bias?

No, I am saying computers and algorithms only tell you what you programed them to tell you. They don't venture beyond the boundaries of their programming.
It's not your views that divide us, it's what you think my views should be that divides us.

If you think I will give up my rights and forsake social etiquette to make you "FEEL" better you are sadly mistaken

If liberal democrats would just stop shooting people gun violence would drop by 90%
sadolite
Posts: 8,838
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3/30/2013 9:23:28 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 3/30/2013 9:12:59 AM, sadolite wrote:
At 3/24/2013 3:18:15 AM, malcolmxy wrote:
At 3/23/2013 9:33:54 PM, sadolite wrote:
The program uses the "New York Times" as a source? Are you f-ing kidding me. Bwahaahaahaaa

Why didn't it predict the past 100% correct every time? It is obvious it was given way more accurate input than if unknowns are used like it will be required for the future. Computers tell you what you want them to tell you. Alga rhythms are written to produce desired results not unwanted results.

Are you saying weather reporting has a liberal bias?

No, I am saying computers and algorithms only tell you what you programed them to tell you. They don't venture beyond the boundaries of their programming.

Case in point. Climate change algorithms. They are programed to tell the climate scientists they want to hear. If they dont then something was obviously wrong with the programming input and it needs to be tweaked until it does. You don't hear anything about climate models "not showing" an increase in global temperature. There should be at least as many showing the "not side" But you will never be privy to those because that is "not" what they want you to hear.
It's not your views that divide us, it's what you think my views should be that divides us.

If you think I will give up my rights and forsake social etiquette to make you "FEEL" better you are sadly mistaken

If liberal democrats would just stop shooting people gun violence would drop by 90%
1Devilsadvocate
Posts: 1,518
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4/11/2013 4:16:41 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
http://www.foxnews.com...

"Ali Razeghi registered "The Aryayek Time Traveling Machine" with Iran's state-run Centre for Strategic Inventions, The Telegraph reports.
He said the machine would use algorithms to predict the future of any individual, between five and eight years into their future."

NAC. B.S. Alarm going off.

"The reason that we are not launching our prototype at this stage is that the Chinese will steal the idea and produce it in millions overnight."

Do Iranians really fall for this?
I cannot write in English, because of the treacherous spelling. When I am reading, I only hear it and am unable to remember what the written word looks like."
"Albert Einstein

http://www.twainquotes.com... , http://thewritecorner.wordpress.com... , http://www.onlinecollegecourses.com...