Beginners 8.3 - DAY PHASE ONE

At 4/12/2012 4:34:05 PM, Lordknukle wrote:

At 4/12/2012 4:19:14 PM, Zaradi wrote:

At 4/12/2012 4:18:10 PM, OberHerr wrote:

At 4/12/2012 2:34:10 PM, Lordknukle wrote:
Possibilies

Lannan is the Doc and I am not

This is merely included for the sake of analyzing everything. Assuming that I was a mafia, it would not make sense for me to CC such an important role this early in the game. One-for-one trades never benefit mafia and are incredibly stupid.

I will point out on this one, is that actually, a Mafia trade for a Doc would not be a bad trade.

I'm not contesting that normally one-for-one trades are bad, but if it were for a role as important as the Doc, it would be in Mafia favor.

This.

In the last beginner games, airmax and I did a one-for-one trade where he CC'd Kyro as cop and got Kyro lynched. We ended up winning two DPs later.

You did it in a game where there was only one cop and all the roles were known. This is a completely different scenario with different variables to consider, not to mention a whole different game set up.

Approximating apples and oranges is just making you seem scummy.

I'm just saying LK, saying its ALWAYS, a bad idea is just dumb.

So that's 4 claims now... how many more do we want?

At 4/12/2012 4:34:05 PM, Lordknukle wrote:

At 4/12/2012 4:19:14 PM, Zaradi wrote:

At 4/12/2012 4:18:10 PM, OberHerr wrote:

At 4/12/2012 2:34:10 PM, Lordknukle wrote:
Possibilies

Lannan is the Doc and I am not

This is merely included for the sake of analyzing everything. Assuming that I was a mafia, it would not make sense for me to CC such an important role this early in the game. One-for-one trades never benefit mafia and are incredibly stupid.

I will point out on this one, is that actually, a Mafia trade for a Doc would not be a bad trade.

I'm not contesting that normally one-for-one trades are bad, but if it were for a role as important as the Doc, it would be in Mafia favor.

This.

In the last beginner games, airmax and I did a one-for-one trade where he CC'd Kyro as cop and got Kyro lynched. We ended up winning two DPs later.

You did it in a game where there was only one cop and all the roles were known. This is a completely different scenario with different variables to consider, not to mention a whole different game set up.

So? It's just an example of how one-for-one trades aren't ALWAYS detrimental to the mafia.

Approximating apples and oranges is just making you seem scummy.

Your attempt to make me look scummy on nothing is, as per your usual behavior, scummy.

At 4/12/2012 4:37:11 PM, airmax1227 wrote:
So that's 4 claims now... how many more do we want?

Four claims is enough for today.

Unvote
VTNL

Official Vote Count
thephfactor 3/6 - FT, LK, lannan
lannan 1/6 - ph
VTNL 2/6 - airmax. Zaradi

This day phase will end 3/14 at 3:30pm EST

True
Unvote
VTNL

VTNL

Why does LK always look scummy?

At 4/12/2012 4:41:41 PM, OberHerr wrote:
VTNL

Why does LK always look scummy?

I'm really starting to think that's just his normal play-style.
It's really freaking strange.

Just for fun because I have nothing else to do:

Note that this is assuming that all claims are true.

My Possible Actions

Protect Myself

Protect Lannan

Protect PH

Lannan's Possible Actions

Protect himself

Protect me

Protect PH

__________________________________

Since we have 2 Docs and one known cop, I'll assign a value of 3 to the Doc and 4 to the Cop.

People are generally motivated by self interest, especially when they think another party might be capable of doing the exact same thing that they could have done instead of pursuing their own self-interest. The most rational decision based on self-interest for either Lannan or I is to protect themselves, at the expense of a external party (cop). However, protecting themselves assumes that the value of the Doc is greater than the value of the Cop in this scenario. With two likely Docs and only one cop, this analysis is false as a Cop has more value than a Doc. Therefore, protecting themselves is a irrational solution if going by the previously assigned variables.

As hard as it may be to hear, losing a Doc now is better than losing a Cop since it seems as if we only have one Cop vs two Docs. Of course the Cop could be flavoured, but this is useless speculation which should not be assumed unless there is indication of such. Since the Cop is more valuable than the Doc, all precautions must be taken to make sure the Cop stays alive, even if at the cost of a Doc.

My conclusion is that one person should protect the Cop while another should protect either themselves or the other Doc (mathematically equivalent).

At 4/12/2012 4:44:16 PM, Lordknukle wrote:
Just for fun because I have nothing else to do:

Note that this is assuming that all claims are true.

My Possible Actions

Protect Myself

Protect Lannan

Protect PH

Lannan's Possible Actions

Protect himself

Protect me

Protect PH

__________________________________

Since we have 2 Docs and one known cop, I'll assign a value of 3 to the Doc and 4 to the Cop.

People are generally motivated by self interest, especially when they think another party might be capable of doing the exact same thing that they could have done instead of pursuing their own self-interest. The most rational decision based on self-interest for either Lannan or I is to protect themselves, at the expense of a external party (cop). However, protecting themselves assumes that the value of the Doc is greater than the value of the Cop in this scenario. With two likely Docs and only one cop, this analysis is false as a Cop has more value than a Doc. Therefore, protecting themselves is a irrational solution if going by the previously assigned variables.

As hard as it may be to hear, losing a Doc now is better than losing a Cop since it seems as if we only have one Cop vs two Docs. Of course the Cop could be flavoured, but this is useless speculation which should not be assumed unless there is indication of such. Since the Cop is more valuable than the Doc, all precautions must be taken to make sure the Cop stays alive, even if at the cost of a Doc.

My conclusion is that one person should protect the Cop while another should protect either themselves or the other Doc (mathematically equivalent).

.....kay?
How bored are you?

At 4/12/2012 4:37:48 PM, Zaradi wrote:

At 4/12/2012 4:34:05 PM, Lordknukle wrote:

At 4/12/2012 4:19:14 PM, Zaradi wrote:

At 4/12/2012 4:18:10 PM, OberHerr wrote:

At 4/12/2012 2:34:10 PM, Lordknukle wrote:
Possibilies

Lannan is the Doc and I am not

This is merely included for the sake of analyzing everything. Assuming that I was a mafia, it would not make sense for me to CC such an important role this early in the game. One-for-one trades never benefit mafia and are incredibly stupid.

I will point out on this one, is that actually, a Mafia trade for a Doc would not be a bad trade.

I'm not contesting that normally one-for-one trades are bad, but if it were for a role as important as the Doc, it would be in Mafia favor.

This.

In the last beginner games, airmax and I did a one-for-one trade where he CC'd Kyro as cop and got Kyro lynched. We ended up winning two DPs later.

You did it in a game where there was only one cop and all the roles were known. This is a completely different scenario with different variables to consider, not to mention a whole different game set up.

So? It's just an example of how one-for-one trades aren't ALWAYS detrimental to the mafia.

So you compare a arbitrary scenario with another completely arbitrary scenario and make up a conclusion that falls onto all arbitrary scenarios? Smart.

Approximating apples and oranges is just making you seem scummy.

Your attempt to make me look scummy on nothing is, as per your usual behavior, scummy.

I'm not making you look scummy; I am merely noting that you are looking scummy. I am doing no explicit effort to make you scummy, but instead noticing your explicit scumminess.

At 4/12/2012 4:45:43 PM, Zaradi wrote:

At 4/12/2012 4:44:16 PM, Lordknukle wrote:
Just for fun because I have nothing else to do:

Note that this is assuming that all claims are true.

My Possible Actions

Protect Myself

Protect Lannan

Protect PH

Lannan's Possible Actions

Protect himself

Protect me

Protect PH

__________________________________

Since we have 2 Docs and one known cop, I'll assign a value of 3 to the Doc and 4 to the Cop.

People are generally motivated by self interest, especially when they think another party might be capable of doing the exact same thing that they could have done instead of pursuing their own self-interest. The most rational decision based on self-interest for either Lannan or I is to protect themselves, at the expense of a external party (cop). However, protecting themselves assumes that the value of the Doc is greater than the value of the Cop in this scenario. With two likely Docs and only one cop, this analysis is false as a Cop has more value than a Doc. Therefore, protecting themselves is a irrational solution if going by the previously assigned variables.

As hard as it may be to hear, losing a Doc now is better than losing a Cop since it seems as if we only have one Cop vs two Docs. Of course the Cop could be flavoured, but this is useless speculation which should not be assumed unless there is indication of such. Since the Cop is more valuable than the Doc, all precautions must be taken to make sure the Cop stays alive, even if at the cost of a Doc.

My conclusion is that one person should protect the Cop while another should protect either themselves or the other Doc (mathematically equivalent).

.....kay?
How bored are you?

My World of Warcraft membership ran out.

Official Vote Count
thephfactor 3/6 - FT, LK
lannan 1/6 - ph
VTNL 4/6 - airmax, Zaradi, lannan, Ober

This day phase will end 3/14 at 3:30pm EST

At 4/12/2012 4:46:41 PM, OberHerr wrote:
http://www.quickmeme.com...

O' THE GRAMMAR...

*faints*

At 4/12/2012 4:45:58 PM, Lordknukle wrote:

At 4/12/2012 4:37:48 PM, Zaradi wrote:

At 4/12/2012 4:34:05 PM, Lordknukle wrote:

At 4/12/2012 4:19:14 PM, Zaradi wrote:

At 4/12/2012 4:18:10 PM, OberHerr wrote:

At 4/12/2012 2:34:10 PM, Lordknukle wrote:
Possibilies

Lannan is the Doc and I am not

This is merely included for the sake of analyzing everything. Assuming that I was a mafia, it would not make sense for me to CC such an important role this early in the game. One-for-one trades never benefit mafia and are incredibly stupid.

I will point out on this one, is that actually, a Mafia trade for a Doc would not be a bad trade.

I'm not contesting that normally one-for-one trades are bad, but if it were for a role as important as the Doc, it would be in Mafia favor.

This.

In the last beginner games, airmax and I did a one-for-one trade where he CC'd Kyro as cop and got Kyro lynched. We ended up winning two DPs later.

You did it in a game where there was only one cop and all the roles were known. This is a completely different scenario with different variables to consider, not to mention a whole different game set up.

So? It's just an example of how one-for-one trades aren't ALWAYS detrimental to the mafia.

So you compare a arbitrary scenario with another completely arbitrary scenario and make up a conclusion that falls onto all arbitrary scenarios? Smart.

No. Your claim is that ALL one-for-one trades are not beneficial to the mafia. I gave one scenario that a one-for-one trade WAS beneficial to the mafia. Thus, SOME one-for-one trades are beneficial.

Approximating apples and oranges is just making you seem scummy.

Your attempt to make me look scummy on nothing is, as per your usual behavior, scummy.

I'm not making you look scummy; I am merely noting that you are looking scummy. I am doing no explicit effort to make you scummy, but instead noticing your explicit scumminess.

False. By attempting to paint my words into something they are not, you are trying to make me look scummy. Your scummy behavior has been noted.

At 4/12/2012 4:47:34 PM, Lordknukle wrote:

At 4/12/2012 4:46:41 PM, OberHerr wrote:
http://www.quickmeme.com...

O' THE GRAMMAR...

*faints*

?

At 4/12/2012 4:51:27 PM, Zaradi wrote:

At 4/12/2012 4:45:58 PM, Lordknukle wrote:

At 4/12/2012 4:37:48 PM, Zaradi wrote:

At 4/12/2012 4:34:05 PM, Lordknukle wrote:

At 4/12/2012 4:19:14 PM, Zaradi wrote:

At 4/12/2012 4:18:10 PM, OberHerr wrote:

At 4/12/2012 2:34:10 PM, Lordknukle wrote:
Possibilies

Lannan is the Doc and I am not

This is merely included for the sake of analyzing everything. Assuming that I was a mafia, it would not make sense for me to CC such an important role this early in the game. One-for-one trades never benefit mafia and are incredibly stupid.

I will point out on this one, is that actually, a Mafia trade for a Doc would not be a bad trade.

I'm not contesting that normally one-for-one trades are bad, but if it were for a role as important as the Doc, it would be in Mafia favor.

This.

In the last beginner games, airmax and I did a one-for-one trade where he CC'd Kyro as cop and got Kyro lynched. We ended up winning two DPs later.

You did it in a game where there was only one cop and all the roles were known. This is a completely different scenario with different variables to consider, not to mention a whole different game set up.

So? It's just an example of how one-for-one trades aren't ALWAYS detrimental to the mafia.

So you compare a arbitrary scenario with another completely arbitrary scenario and make up a conclusion that falls onto all arbitrary scenarios? Smart.

No. Your claim is that ALL one-for-one trades are not beneficial to the mafia. I gave one scenario that a one-for-one trade WAS beneficial to the mafia. Thus, SOME one-for-one trades are beneficial.

It could be argued whether or not that trade was implicitly beneficial to the mafia or other arbitrary events led to your win.

In any case, I couldn't care less. If you want to twist my words, be my guest. But you will no longer get any recognition from my for it.

Approximating apples and oranges is just making you seem scummy.

Your attempt to make me look scummy on nothing is, as per your usual behavior, scummy.

I'm not making you look scummy; I am merely noting that you are looking scummy. I am doing no explicit effort to make you scummy, but instead noticing your explicit scumminess.

False. By attempting to paint my words into something they are not, you are trying to make me look scummy. Your scummy behavior has been noted.

I am not painting your words in a different manner; I am simply noticing their implicit meanings.

Also, I really don't care anymore.

VTNL

nac

Official Vote Count
thephfactor 1/6 - FT
lannan 1/6 - ph
VTNL 6/6 - airmax, Zaradi, lannan, Ober, LK, Buddamoose

The Day has ended in a No Lynch. Please submit your night actions ASAP. The next Day Phase will start no later than 4/14 at 6:00pm EST.

Ph investigate lannan or LK please