The Future of the GOP

As I see it, sometime before 2020, the GOP is going to change dramatically.

The Republican party is going to become more liberal on social issues (gay marriage, abortion, etc) eventually to the point where it resembles a very-moderate form of libertarianism.

Of course the Sarah Palin's and Mike Huckabee's will have to be done away with.

Or is the Republican Party going to completely shatter and basically give the rest of the 21st Century over to a permanent Democratic majority?

I think it'll be the first one.

I would like it for it to be the first one as well... but I have worries that it won't happen, at least without a lot of pain.

Case and point with the recent shake-up of the GOP in NY-23. A liberal candidate, Dede Scozzafava, was dropped because of her propensity towards allowing gay marriage and abortion rights. Instead of supporting her candidacy, the GOP machine instead backed a third-party candidate who was more socially conservative.

If the GOP has trouble over a small Congressional district, then you can imagine the pain that could occur if they get more moderate candidates for 2010 and 2012.

They -have- to become more liberal on the current social issues. The natural progression of our social sphere tells us that controversial social issues usually side with liberals in the end (e.g. slavery. The pre-cursors to the Republicans took the liberal stance and won.)

It will be new issues, like net neutrality or issues we haven't even conceived of yet, that the Republicans will bemoan next.

They needn't change, because they are, or rather they should be, a free-market party with unfortunate, and oddly associated, draconian social policies. They have been that party for 60-odd years and they're not going to stop now

Kurtz is correct. A look at the history of the GOP suggests that they will give in on these issues and move on to conservative positions on new ones. This happened with social security, civil rights, medicare, interracial marriage, &ct. I don't think the question is will they drop the issues, but when will they. Are the recent stirrings in the party an indication that the time is now?

I would have no problem with them becoming libertarian on social issues. The libertarian social arguments are more consistent with their economic beliefs.

At 11/5/2009 7:04:51 PM, wjmelements wrote:
I would have no problem with them becoming libertarian on social issues. The libertarian social arguments are more consistent with their economic beliefs.

Their economic beliefs are more classical liberal than libertarian. I've found that there is an actual difference; Republicans are consistently in favour of a basic structure of regulation which is more passive in its implementation than active. Libertarians, meanwhile, are not in favour of any government interference.

Republicans favour the checks and balances approach, while libertarians are just leave-'em-to-the-wolves.

At 11/5/2009 7:04:51 PM, wjmelements wrote:
I would have no problem with them becoming libertarian on social issues. The libertarian social arguments are more consistent with their economic beliefs.

If you sincerely believe that the Republicans are libertarian, you have another thing coming.

At 11/5/2009 7:11:30 PM, MistahKurtz wrote:

At 11/5/2009 7:04:51 PM, wjmelements wrote:
I would have no problem with them becoming libertarian on social issues. The libertarian social arguments are more consistent with their economic beliefs.

If you sincerely believe that the Republicans are libertarian, you have another thing coming.

Its like saying New Democrats are neo-cons.

At 11/5/2009 7:11:30 PM, MistahKurtz wrote:

At 11/5/2009 7:04:51 PM, wjmelements wrote:
I would have no problem with them becoming libertarian on social issues. The libertarian social arguments are more consistent with their economic beliefs.

If you sincerely believe that the Republicans are libertarian, you have another thing coming.

I don't. However, they're in favor of economic liberty in most every case. The party itself(or atleast Bush) was neokeynesian.

They should go back to Reagan conservatism.