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NFL - Beat The Insiders (2)

Danielle
Posts: 19,355
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9/2/2011 2:34:49 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
So instead of keeping track of everybody's game picks each week, I decided to let a website do that for me. I played on this site last year. For those of you who have Shotime, you might be familiar with the TV show "Beat The Insiders" which is on Wednesday nights each week during the football season. On their website (www.beattheinsiders.com) you can create an account and make your picks each week for what team you think will win. You can also create groups to compare your stats against other people. If you feel like doing this for fun, create an account and let me know what your name/e-mail address is so I can invite you to be in a group with me :)
Lasagna
Posts: 2,440
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9/19/2011 8:34:58 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
19-12 (I'm tied with Phil Simms)

They keep talking up Newton's "big games" but they fail to realize the game is fundamentally different than it was. 400 yard games OBVIOUSLY aren't enough to win a football game today, it's more dynamic now and depends on turnovers and goal-line stands. A QB can get 800 yards and lose a game if they all result in FGs.
Rob
Danielle
Posts: 19,355
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9/19/2011 10:14:04 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
I'm 21-10 -- disappointed because I wanted to pick the Browns in an upset, and it seems I should've >.<

I searched for the DDO group but couldn't find it. If you want to send me a link or e-mail invite, Rob, you know my e-mail address :)
theitalianstallion
Posts: 1,109
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9/19/2011 8:33:00 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 9/18/2011 9:18:49 PM, Lasagna wrote:
you should be invited now stallion

Thank you.

Week 1 really screwed me up...went 8-8. Should've gone 14-1 this week, but the Eagles let me down.
When Reach fell, I came.
Danielle
Posts: 19,355
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9/25/2011 6:54:37 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
I did absolutely terrible this week. So far I'm 6-8, with 2 games left. Assuming the Steelers and Cowboys win, I'll be 8-8. Given Romo's injuries, they definitely don't have it in the bag :/

My wrong picks so far this week:

New England over Bills (nobody saw that coming)
Jets over Raiders (most people picked Jets, I bet)
Eagles over Giants (I'm pissed about this one; I struggled with it)
Dolphins over Browns (I really thought the Fins had it though most people picked Cleveland)
Bengals over San Fran (this was a tough one for me)
Texans over Saints (I was worried about the Saints D, and with good reason)
Falcons over Bucs (you just never know with TB...)
Cardinals over Seahawks (meh, the Seahawks usually blow it :/ )

Sometimes I pick upsets just to go against what the Insiders (or the majority) might say, so I can try and pull ahead :P
Lasagna
Posts: 2,440
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9/25/2011 8:31:43 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
Without McNabb Washington is much better. God he sucks bad! Watching that game was painful! Third down and 1: give it to McNabb for incomplete pass. Good Job. Fourth down and 1 (next drive): act like you've learned lesson, and give it to full back. Adrian Peterson: the great decoy.
Rob
theitalianstallion
Posts: 1,109
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9/26/2011 12:15:06 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
8-7 right now. Terrible....WTF Patriots, Jets and Falcons?

At least my Panthers got their first win. Cam Newton is going to be a great player; he realizes, even as a rookie, that big numbers aren't going to keep him in the league, wins will.
When Reach fell, I came.
Lasagna
Posts: 2,440
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9/26/2011 9:48:00 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 9/26/2011 12:15:06 AM, theitalianstallion wrote:
8-7 right now. Terrible....WTF Patriots, Jets and Falcons?

At least my Panthers got their first win. Cam Newton is going to be a great player; he realizes, even as a rookie, that big numbers aren't going to keep him in the league, wins will.

He's a great runner and he'll smoke the easy teams, much like Vick does and Culpepper did, but good running doesn't replace good throwing (in the big games at least) and he's going to have to continue to build on his accuracy.
Rob
Lasagna
Posts: 2,440
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10/3/2011 11:37:37 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
Chris Collinsworth: 44-20
Warren Sapp: 40-24
Phil Simms: 39-25
Lasagna: 41-23
Danielle: 42-21 (you went 12-3 this week it says, I don't get it)

==Unknown members==
akilesofcydonia: 40-23
mrleemc: 32-15
amadon: 30-17
Rob
Danielle
Posts: 19,355
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10/4/2011 9:32:48 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 10/3/2011 11:37:37 PM, Lasagna wrote:
Danielle: 42-21 (you went 12-3 this week it says, I don't get it)

Was that before the TB game? Mine says I'm 13-3. I was wrong about the Vikings, Eagles and Bills.
Danielle
Posts: 19,355
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10/4/2011 9:34:37 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
Also I won my fantasy game! Woo! The big 2-2 lol. I was pissed that I didn't start Beanie Wells, who went off and got 31 fantasy points last week. FML. I only won by 3 points... lucky :)
Lasagna
Posts: 2,440
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10/4/2011 10:58:34 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 10/4/2011 9:32:48 AM, Danielle wrote:
At 10/3/2011 11:37:37 PM, Lasagna wrote:
Danielle: 42-21 (you went 12-3 this week it says, I don't get it)

Was that before the TB game? Mine says I'm 13-3. I was wrong about the Vikings, Eagles and Bills.

That was weird because it was after the game and everyone else's stats were in, but yours wouldn't update. Well at any rate you're sitting pretty good at 43-21.
Rob
Lasagna
Posts: 2,440
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10/4/2011 1:31:15 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
Unfortunately there's no way to prove what picks you had in previous weeks, but there's nothing stopping you from jumping in now. Win % is win %... You just need your pics documented before-hand either on DDO or that website.
Rob
Lasagna
Posts: 2,440
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10/7/2011 9:47:52 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
Wow is this the hardest week of picks or what? Everybody's win %s are going to go down I think. So many of these games could go both ways.
Rob
Danielle
Posts: 19,355
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10/7/2011 9:56:31 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 10/7/2011 9:47:52 AM, Lasagna wrote:
Wow is this the hardest week of picks or what? Everybody's win %s are going to go down I think. So many of these games could go both ways.

I agree, and I find myself not picking along with the Insiders more than usual. There are not many where they all agree either. To be fair, I'm not particularly good at picking even though I follow football (my average is usually around 68%) which is something I love about the league :)
Danielle
Posts: 19,355
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10/7/2011 9:58:12 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
Also, Ore_Ele it documents people's win percentage by week. It's just for fun; you can totes join! I didn't join right away at the beginning of last season either and it kind of bothered me that I was always behind everyone else, but if you just go week by week then it's still amusing.
Ore_Ele
Posts: 21,422
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10/7/2011 10:17:29 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 10/7/2011 9:58:12 AM, Danielle wrote:
Also, Ore_Ele it documents people's win percentage by week. It's just for fun; you can totes join! I didn't join right away at the beginning of last season either and it kind of bothered me that I was always behind everyone else, but if you just go week by week then it's still amusing.

I'll just be posting my predictions in here.
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Ore_Ele
Posts: 21,422
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10/7/2011 11:31:13 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
1) Titans over Steelers - while the Steelers have the highest rated pass defense and the Titans only have a passing offense, the Steelers obtained that #1 by facing off agaisnt Seattle (which has a horrible new quarterback, who will take awhile to find a groove, if ever), the Colts (who have proven that they really are nothing without Peyton), Huston (which focuses on a Run offense, not pass), and the Ravens (also focuses on run more than pass). We also see that the Steelers were owned by the ravens, while the Titans beat the Ravens. I'll say home field does give an advantage, but I gotta go with the Titans.

2) Giants over Seahawks - Seahawks are the new Bills.

3) Bengals over Jaguars - I hope the Bengals get their *&$@ handed to them because of last week, but that is about it. Jaguars are dead last in the passing game, while the Bengals have a great pass defense (though they have not faced many high passing teams, put them against the Packers or Pats, and that ranking is going to plummet). Even though the Jags have a pretty good running game, the Bengals also have a pretty good running defense (both ranked 7th). Gabbert isn't ready and I wouldn't be surprised to see him blitzed a good deal.

4) Saints over Panthers - Both these teams are very highly ranked for passing. And the Panthers have a darn good pass defense. But they have a crap rush defense (ranked 31st). And the Saints have a pretty good rushing offense, which should allow their pass to open up wide in the second half, especially if they take a lead (where the defense needs to worry about the run being used to run off the clock). The Saint's pass defense is below average, but not too bad, while their run defense is fairly good and should hold the Panter's rush.

5) Texans over Raiders - The Raiders may have the #1 ranked rushing offense, but they have middleschoolers for defense, and Huston has some darn good running too (#4). Running doesn't do you a lot of good when you're down, and with the Raider's defense, they are often down.

6) Bills over Eagles - Let a poor man have his dreams! Really, the numbers say that the Eagles should win, they have a better offense, they have a better defense, they have a better mascot, everything is in their favor. However, for now, I still hold that the Bills law applies. When playing the Bills, whatever team should win, will ultimately lose.

7) Colts over Chiefs - Both teams suck. The Chiefs' only bright spot is an average running offense. Everything else is either below average or horrible. The Colts are not any better though, everything for them is ranked 20th or worse. But I think the home field advantage will be helpful and I also think that Peyton being on the sidelines will be an emotional boost to the players. He just generates that kind of camaraderie.

8) Vikings over Cardinals - Minisota can't do the pass and can't handle the pass (pass off and pass def are laughable), but that's okay because the Cardinals don't pass well to begin with. The Vikings have a great run and a great run defense (it's almost as if they think it is 1911 rather than 2011, when there is no passing allowed in football). The Cardinals have an average rush defense, but they lost to the Seahawks... so, yeah.

9) Buccs over 49ers - Damn this one was hard. The Buccs have only average numbers (their rankings ranging from 11th to 21st, so from above average to below average, but nothing all that special or that bad). However, they've maintained these numbers going against some tough arse teams. Lions, Falcons, and Vikings (who have that amazing run remember). Meanwhile, the 49ers have nothing good except for their rush defense (everything else is ranked 22nd or worse), and they've done that against lower skilled teams (Bengals and Seahawks). The only good team they've beaten (Cowboys), they barely pulled it out.

10) Pats over Jets - It's gonna be nice to see the #1 ranked passing offense (Pats) go against the #2 ranked passing defense (Jets), but given the vast difference in the Pats rushing offense (9th) against the Jets rush defense (27th), I don't see that passing defense holding up. It should be noted that while the Pats have the best passing offense, they also have the worst passing defense, but I don't see the Jets' average passing offense taking too much advantage of that.

11) Chargers over Broncos - The Chargers surpass the Broncos in all areas, not by a massive amount, but they still surpass them. And in match ups, they win out in 3 of the 4 sections, only losing out on their run offense (ranked 18th) against the bronco's run defense (ranked 13th) and even that is not too far off.

12) Greenbay over Falcons - Even though Greenbay has a horrible passing defense (ranked 31st) and an average rushing offense (ranked 15th) I don't see Atlanta punching too much through that. Even though in the matchups, they split (The Packers' pass def loses to the Falcons' pass off and the Packers' run off loses to the Falcons' run def), it seems like both will try to focus on passing, and the Packers will win in that kind of shoot out. And since the Falcons nearly lost to the Seahawks last week, I think they may be a bit over rated.

13) Lions over Bears - The Bears have nothing really good, all four categories are ranked 20th or worse, though granted, their passing defense has been facing the Packers (5th for pass off), the Saints (2nd for pass off), Falcons (11th for pass off), and Panthers (3rd for pass off), so such a low ranking does not do them justice, but a lot of these teams have bad pass defenses (Packers, ranked 31st for example) and the Bears are still only ranked 25th for their own pass off. The same is true for their rushing offense, even though the Packers have a great run stop, the Panthers have a horrible one, so whatever shortages they had against the packers, they should have made up against the Panthers. This means that only their pass defense is underrated, the rest is probably fairly accurate.
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Lasagna
Posts: 2,440
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10/8/2011 12:10:10 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
2) Giants over Seahawks - Seahawks are the new Bills.

New? They haven't had a winning season since '07 in the worst division around.

4) Saints over Panthers - Both these teams are very highly ranked for passing. And the Panthers have a darn good pass defense. But they have a crap rush defense (ranked 31st). And the Saints have a pretty good rushing offense, which should allow their pass to open up wide in the second half, especially if they take a lead (where the defense needs to worry about the run being used to run off the clock). The Saint's pass defense is below average, but not too bad, while their run defense is fairly good and should hold the Panter's rush.

I wouldn't bet against the Saints vs. anyone right now.

6) Bills over Eagles - Let a poor man have his dreams! Really, the numbers say that the Eagles should win, they have a better offense, they have a better defense, they have a better mascot, everything is in their favor. However, for now, I still hold that the Bills law applies. When playing the Bills, whatever team should win, will ultimately lose.

Vince Young will go down in 2011 as the quarterback who sunk the Eagles without throwing a pass.

7) Colts over Chiefs - Both teams suck. The Chiefs' only bright spot is an average running offense. Everything else is either below average or horrible. The Colts are not any better though, everything for them is ranked 20th or worse. But I think the home field advantage will be helpful and I also think that Peyton being on the sidelines will be an emotional boost to the players. He just generates that kind of camaraderie.

That's pathetic that he is so vital that his presence gives the colts energy like the '90s Undertaker and his urn.

8) Vikings over Cardinals - Minisota can't do the pass and can't handle the pass (pass off and pass def are laughable), but that's okay because the Cardinals don't pass well to begin with. The Vikings have a great run and a great run defense (it's almost as if they think it is 1911 rather than 2011, when there is no passing allowed in football). The Cardinals have an average rush defense, but they lost to the Seahawks... so, yeah.

Donovan McNabb is horrible and should be retired immediately. He had some years, but they are way behind him. If the bloody vikes get their hands on Luck, it will be a catastrophe.

10) Pats over Jets - It's gonna be nice to see the #1 ranked passing offense (Pats) go against the #2 ranked passing defense (Jets), but given the vast difference in the Pats rushing offense (9th) against the Jets rush defense (27th), I don't see that passing defense holding up. It should be noted that while the Pats have the best passing offense, they also have the worst passing defense, but I don't see the Jets' average passing offense taking too much advantage of that.

The Pats will come out and play well. The Jets will either come out and play great, or they will play horribly.

Don't count Denver out of Luck-Gate just yet...

12) Greenbay over Falcons - Even though Greenbay has a horrible passing defense (ranked 31st) and an average rushing offense (ranked 15th) I don't see Atlanta punching too much through that. Even though in the matchups, they split (The Packers' pass def loses to the Falcons' pass off and the Packers' run off loses to the Falcons' run def), it seems like both will try to focus on passing, and the Packers will win in that kind of shoot out. And since the Falcons nearly lost to the Seahawks last week, I think they may be a bit over rated.

Roddy White will get his. Julio Jones probably will too. It's obvious neither of these teams are going to want to run much, based on how their defenses work, so it's going to be a shoot-out, and Aaron Rodgers is like fukking Clint Eastwood in those types of games. Matt Ryan is not elite this year.

13) Lions over Bears - The Bears have nothing really good, all four categories are ranked 20th or worse, though granted, their passing defense has been facing the Packers (5th for pass off), the Saints (2nd for pass off), Falcons (11th for pass off), and Panthers (3rd for pass off), so such a low ranking does not do them justice, but a lot of these teams have bad pass defenses (Packers, ranked 31st for example) and the Bears are still only ranked 25th for their own pass off. The same is true for their rushing offense, even though the Packers have a great run stop, the Panthers have a horrible one, so whatever shortages they had against the packers, they should have made up against the Panthers. This means that only their pass defense is underrated, the rest is probably fairly accurate.

Yeah the Bears have had a brutal schedule - don't count them out. You know how hard it is for megatron to maintain catches against them...
Rob
Ore_Ele
Posts: 21,422
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10/10/2011 10:24:19 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
Ouch, 7 - 5 for the first 12. I really hope the Lions win, so I can have a somewhat respectable 8 - 5.

By the way, WTF was going on with red zone turn overs? Especially at the end of the 4th.

Texans, with 7 seconds left and on the 8 yard line (down by 5 points) throw a pick in the endzone to end the game (granted, those are the best games, where it does come down to the last seconds).

And Manning threw a pick with something like 50 seconds left at the 6 yard line (when they were only down by 4), which was returned 94 yards for a TD (granted, it wasn't his fault, as the ball was bobbled into the air for the other guy to get it).
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