I think we are getting closer and closer to an HIV vaccine. HIV is one of the most well known diseases being researched, along with cancer. I think as long as we keep the issue on the forefront of public knowledge, progress will continue. More advertisements need to be made to raise more money for the scientists and the other researchers that are working towards these things.
Just like the flue, to pin down an exact strain of HIV is virtually impossible. While we may get close to a vaccine, I do not think that scientists will be able to move fast enough to keep ahead of the virus. Furthermore, there is somewhat of a perverse incentive for large pharmaceutical companies to not come up with a cure since it limits the sale of their other drugs used to combat HIV.
I do not think that we are close to getting a vaccine for HIV. As sad as it is, it would make sense not to make one. There is no money in curing a disease. It is better and more lucrative if we just make a way for people to live with HIV and manage it until they pass. Due to this, I do not think researchers are trying as hard as the could.
HIV is a very complex disease which attacks the immune system on multiple fronts. While we have made some progress in finding a vaccine for it, there is still a lot of research to do before we understand how the disease attacks and what needs to be done to prevent the attack.