4Q will send a good pack of US shale producers out of business. We haven't see a good amount of bankruptcies yet is mostly attributed to their hedges made while prices were at $100s, $90s, $80s. While prices were traded at $60s, $50s, $40, they were still able to sell at their hedged prices. So they did not really suffer low prices for the past 15 months, more like less than 6 months. 5 of opec countries are been cut to the bone and are on the verge on facing depression. They rather have war to ramp up price than to suffer alone, just to make a point. When people are poor and hungry, they eat their parents and children.
While I do believe gas prices haven't bottomed out quite yet, in my experience it does not take much for the prices to balloon back up. It could be a terror attack, the threat of one, or major news regarding the oil industry. One major change to the landscape is all it takes to bring the oil prices back up.
Right now, the price of oil is among the most hotly debated topics in all of economics and finance. After all, as a commodity it has huge repercussions for the rest of the economy. Right now, the incredible low price has many commentators feeling gloomy. But it is simply infeasible that prices should remain this low forever, and I am confident that they'll surpass $80 a barrel by the end of the year.
Right now it's apparent western oil-producing nations are subverting the market to force Russia and Iran to sell oil below cost. The price drops we're seeing today has nothing to do with decreased demand or an influx in production, as neither has varied enough to justify any sort of change to oild prices.
Oil will not rise to significant levels the rest of the year unless something exceptional happens. We are using less oil and producing more of it. Even as gas prices have gone down, public transportation use has not declined. We are getting used to oil conservation and that will keep prices where they are.