I think it is probable. It seems to be equally probable that the universe has always existed and that a creator always has. Life, however poses a challenge to this. It is extremely improbable that life has eternally existed and evolved to accommodate the evolution of the universe. It seems very improbable as well, that life has originated out of random processes during the relatively small window of time that it could exist as we know it. This is my reasoning for a creator.
Here is my reasoning for the probability that he is no longer involved in his creation. If the Bible is to believed, God has in the past, done many miracles, spoken to many people in obvious ways, and generally made his presence known. In modern life, God never makes obvious communication to people as far as I am aware, doesn't create miracles, and doesn't make himself known. The Bible says that God regretted making us. Perhaps He finally gave up on us. The Bible is an ancient and outdated writing. It is confusing to modern people, and largely inapplicable. It would make sense that such a God would provide us with updated instruction.
In a completely secular society, there would be no place for morality, suggesting that there is some kind of higher being. However, there is also plenty of suffering in the world that I do not believe a God who cared for creation would allow to occur. It's entirely possible that God instilled reason and a sense of morality in humans, and then kind of left us to fend for ourselves.
Everyday, I'm faced with this. The fact that this world can not get along, even though there is no reason not to. "I want to kill you because your god is slightly different than the one I believe in. My god believes in love." Honestly, it's improbable for there to be a creator. There are things that science has proven, to be 100% accurate that people still do not believe. In the bible it says that the earth is 4,000 years old. Fossil records show humans have been here for 100,000 years. Do the math. Some people believe that the creator, created the big bang. Ever heard that? Ridiculous. Before the big bang, there was no space or time, so if the creator actually did exist and did in fact creat the big bang, he would have to be spaceless and timeless. In the old testament it tells us all the time about how god is Omniscient and Omnipresent. While remaining Spaceless and timeless mind you. In the bible it explains that god has a plan, and god doesn't interfere with free will. So when a little girl gets raped, instead of the rapist getting punished, the girl does. The man may go to hell, but he didn't get punished by god, because that would interfere with his free will. Religion is ridiculous. Life simply started where it could and evolved the best it could. This universe isn't fine tuned. It's clock work. Just think of a flower growing through a crack in concrete. The concrete isn't a host for life. Life spreads where it can.
The idea of the existence of a god, in any shape or form, whether in the presence of a burning bush, one who calls up his messenger to return to his heavenly kingdom on a winged horse, or one who commands people to kill others for picking up sticks on a Sunday, is absolutely and unequivocally moronic. It clings to an archaic and frankly bronze-age idea that something has a source and that source which is the source of all things, SOMEHOW, has no source in and of itself. Deism, along with all variants of theism, simply isn't logically tenable.
The probability of life developing on planet earth is incredibly (emphasis on "incredibly") slim, however if you have a basic understanding of mathematics, there is still a chance of life developing. For example, if I have a biased coin which somehow has chance of landing on heads of 1/1000, it will still land on heads at least once since it's not impossible. We are in that universe, where life did develop (purely by chance).
Yes the probability of the situations occurring without a divine being are very slim, but I doubt that you accept the fact that they could occur without a divine being and I believe that we are in that universe where all of these situations did occur by chance.
I must point out that if God is omniscient, then it is contradictory and illogical that he would create us in this way if he knew that he would regret it. To my understanding, this is one of the major flaws with religion.