Phelps definitely has a shot at gold. He may not be at peak condition now, but at the recent Olympic trials he's still out-swimming his competitors by body lengths. The US generally fields a pretty strong Olympic swimming team and is competitive internationally, so Phelps absolutely has a shot. He's not swimming as many events as he used to, so he can really focus on 'his' events and save some energy.
Michael Phelps is truly the greatest swimmer and Olympian of all time. Phelps proved this dominance at the 2016 Olympic Trials when he qualified for his fifth Olympic team by winning the 200 meter butterfly, an event he holds the world record in. During the 2012 Olympics in London, Phelps was in a bad mindset and training program in his swimming. Yet, he still managed to leave London with four gold medals. Leading into Rio, Phelps boast that he is happier than he has ever been in swimming and is in the greatest shape of his life. There is no doubt, therefore, that Phelps will obtain at least one gold medal in Rio.
Michael Phelps is arguably one of the best Olympic swimmers of all time. He continues to dominate and win, and there is no reason to think that he cannot continue his success, especially given that he has done well enough to qualify for the Olympics. He is getting older, but so far this has not had an effect on him physically.
Michael Phelps has a very realistic shot at another gold medal in the 2016 Olympics. Phelps has already made history for being the first U.S. men's swimmer to qualify for five Olympics. His previous experience competing at a high level in these games make him a strong candidate to win a gold medal again in the Rio games.