While "Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them" is almost guaranteed to do well at the box office, it has the slight disadvantage of being a prequel to an extensive series, as well as being slightly geared toward older audiences only. Moana appears to be suitable for younger viewers, but will likely be enjoyable to people of all ages.
Yes, "Moana" will beat "Fantastic Beasts" at the box office. "Moana" appeals to a broader audience than "Fantastic Beasts." Only those who are willing to endure movies heavily steeped in magic will sit through "Fantastic Beasts." Parents are looking for movies that they can take children of all ages to view, and "Moana" fits that description more than "Fantastic Beats." Since there are not enough rated PG movies, family jump at the opportunity to attend PG rated movies like "Moana."
"Moana" is a Disney movie and, while Disney isn't always the best,many of their movies have been proven to be very successful. Harry Potter and the franchise is popular but not as popular as Disney and the movies it has produced over the years. It has become a major staple in the animation industry.
Even the person who checked out my groceries last night at Walmart was talking about Fantastic Beasts. She said that it was a great movie. That kind of word of mouth will get people in the seats. Sci-fi and mystical fantasy has a large audience base. These types will see any kind of movie in this genre.