Just like Newt Gingrich eventually suffered for his role in the 1995-1996 government shut down, Speaker of the House John Boehner and his party will suffer the same fate. There was too much bickering within the GOP during the shutdown. The time off showed how fragile and tenuous the Republicans' hold on Congress is. When mid-term elections happen in November 2014, the GOP will pay.
The government shutdown and the resulting hardships caused to individuals will affect the democrats more in the next election because they were the ones in control of the White House and therefore the figurehead for the government at the time of the shutdown. Since it is something that has not happened before, at least not in our lifetimes, it will be seen as something that has always been avoided that they allowed to happen on their watch.