WhiteFlag Nightless Chosen Mafia DP2

Dead Players
1 Bull_Diesel - Mafia Goon - Lynched DP1

Active Players
1 Beginner
2 blackhawk1331
3 bladerunner060
4 Bullish
5 drafterman
6 JonMilne
7 Khaos_Mage
8 Logic_on_Rails
9 Noumena
10 TheAntidoter
11 TUF
12 Yraelz/FourTrouble

With 12 alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch.

Time Limit: ~96 hours
DP ends 11:00 AM PST 7/1/2013 (Sunday)

I think F-16 should tell TUF to stop posting...LOL

Khaos, who do you think we should lynch. And why?

Reads
1 Beginner
2 blackhawk1331
3 bladerunner060
4 Bullish - 100% Town
5 drafterman
6 JonMilne
7 Khaos_Mage - Scum
8 Logic_on_Rails
9 Noumena - 100% Town
10 TheAntidoter
11 TUF
12 Yraelz/FourTrouble

At 8/28/2013 1:03:05 PM, Yraelz wrote:
Khaos, who do you think we should lynch. And why?

Well, if I understood what you were trying to explain to me "yesterday", is correct, we shouldn't go after Jon because of his slip, because it isn't a scum-tell for him, where the mistake was a scum-slip for Bull. (the difference between tell and slip may be my entire confusion here)

So, we could either sheep onto Noumena from FT's post about defending scum as scum.
But, I would rather go after Beginner for the reasons I outlined last DP.
To me, it is uncharacteristic of him, and uncharacteristic actions are scum-tells, right? (or, they are often considered to be anyway)

I'll let FT weigh in on this. We need to have a discussion about this post:

At 8/27/2013 8:14:20 PM, Beginner wrote:
Lel Khaos, I'm just going to ignore you.. I'm not like FT.. I suck and get very annoyed to the point that I don't even feel like responding anymore. I also don't want to create a flame war. Good luck with your cases.. if you ever say anything compelling, I will gladly participate in meaningful discussion.

I was just about to cast my vote on bull too. Good job townies. XD

VTL JON

Let's string em up.

https://docs.google.com...

Here are my current notes, though they are independent of my reads.

At 8/28/2013 1:34:58 PM, TheAntidoter wrote:
VTL JON

Let's string em up.

No.

Willing to lynch so far

Logic_on_Rails
bladerunner060
Khaos_Mage
TheAntidoter

Still deciding which pile to throw them in

blackhawk1331
drafterman
JonMilne

Not willing to lynch so far

Beginner
Bullish
Noumena
Yraelz/FourTrouble

At 8/28/2013 1:35:14 PM, TUF wrote:
https://docs.google.com...

Here are my current notes, though they are independent of my reads.

You need to update this. I backed off of Jon.

At 8/28/2013 1:39:34 PM, drafterman wrote:

At 8/28/2013 1:35:14 PM, TUF wrote:
https://docs.google.com...

Here are my current notes, though they are independent of my reads.

You need to update this. I backed off of Jon.

There is a lot I didn't put in, between posting, reading, and forgetting to add stuff in.

At 8/28/2013 1:06:29 PM, Yraelz wrote:
Reads
1 Beginner
2 blackhawk1331
3 bladerunner060
4 Bullish - 100% Town
5 drafterman
6 JonMilne
7 Khaos_Mage - Scum
8 Logic_on_Rails
9 Noumena - 100% Town
10 TheAntidoter
11 TUF
12 Yraelz/FourTrouble

You don't read me or Beginner as Town, given that he caught, and I pursued and hammered, Bull?

Jon is 100% town, based on his massive town-tell earlier in the game (obliviousness to the game's setup) and Bull's vote for him (which is clearly a scum voting for town vote).

I think we can say Bullish, Jon, and Beginner are strong town-reads. I've explained Bullish and Jon. Beginner is town based on his interactions with Bull, which are not scum/scum interactions, to say the least. I'd say bladerunner is a weaker town-read, but nonetheless town. Finally, Yraelz thinks Noumena is town (I'm not totally convinced but I'll follow him on that for now).

drafter gets a pass for now. He hasn't done anything that indicates alignment in either direction.

This leaves the players I'm most worried about: Logic/Khaos/TA. I need to reread D1 more carefully (don't have the time right now) to make sure about a few things, but for the most part, I'd like to lynch one of these three today. I'm certain at least 1 of them is scum.

TA has only voted opportunistically (the biggest wagons), and has shown 0 engagement with the game. I'd like to start with some pressure on him.

VTL TA

@TA: Why are you still voting for Jon, even after it's clear he's town? Why did you put Bull at L-1 without offering any analysis?

At 8/28/2013 1:02:58 PM, Khaos_Mage wrote:
I think F-16 should tell TUF to stop posting...LOL

TUF is part of the game. Why would F-16 do that?

Alright TA, your turn. VTL TA

At 8/28/2013 1:06:29 PM, Yraelz wrote:
Reads
1 Beginner
2 blackhawk1331
3 bladerunner060
4 Bullish - 100% Town
5 drafterman
6 JonMilne
7 Khaos_Mage - Scum
8 Logic_on_Rails
9 Noumena - 100% Town
10 TheAntidoter
11 TUF
12 Yraelz/FourTrouble

Not that I disagree that noumena seems town, why do you say 100%?

At 8/28/2013 1:45:15 PM, blackhawk1331 wrote:

At 8/28/2013 1:02:58 PM, Khaos_Mage wrote:
I think F-16 should tell TUF to stop posting...LOL

TUF is part of the game. Why would F-16 do that?

Because the DP had ended and I was still catching up :P

What I mean, what did he do/say that removed any doubt in your mind that he could be scum?

At 8/28/2013 12:41:47 PM, TUF wrote:

At 8/27/2013 5:17:03 PM, bladerunner060 wrote:
I don't think we can make any positive statements about anyone yet. Except that there is no explanation of Jon's behavior that isn't a lie.

Do you think there is EVER a town reason to lie? What made you so dead into the LAL policy, btw?

Well, in this game I feel like all our "tells" are weak at best. So it's not that I'm, per se into LAL, so much as he has done something objectively untrustworthy. In games with roles and such, I lean towards the lynch of anyone who's proven to have lied, but I do totally recognize that there 100% are totally valid reasons to lie. It's just that this is a game where none of us trust each other. And our "trust level" varies depending on whether we think someone is lying about their affiliation or role or reads. But with a definite liar, it's no longer "I'm pretty sure", it's "You definitely gave me bullsh*t".

Bull_Diesel was mafia. He gave us a host of evidence to support that...but all of it seemed very behavioral. The only objective fact we had was 1 liar, so I ran with that.

But now we have a definite mafia. This is good, because we can look at behavior through the lens of that flat fact.

Now I have better grounds.

At 8/28/2013 12:59:28 PM, Yraelz wrote:

At 8/28/2013 12:56:13 PM, bladerunner060 wrote:
Isn't the thread supposed to be closed once the lynch (and therefore DP) is over?

I mean...I wanna post but I don't wanna add on to the thread when I'm under the impression it should be closed...

Continuos DPs, what is the point?

I don't know, but I know blackhawk requested a delay before the next DP, which, had that occurred would have meant the DPs weren't continuous. I just didn't want to annoy the Mod God (F-16).

So anyway, on to an analysis.

FT/Yraelz is town. While I don't like some of his behavior from MY town perspective, it was successful at finding scum, and he was the first to claim VTL Bull. With a game so heavily biased in favor of town already, it would be insane for this to be a mafia gambit. He wasn't in by the end of the lynch because he unvoted when TA put Bull one away (which I think might explain why Yraelz thought Khaos was the hammer when Drafter was? Of course, he corrected quickly, because he's Yraelz).

Khaos and Beginner--I have decided based on other gameplay I simply cannot read effectively. No offense to either of you, and you're both different players, and I mean this nicely, and I haven't played all that many games with either of you, but: you guys are nuts. Town or mafia, your thought process always is befuddling, which would read mafia except I know you both do the same type of thing when town. I used to think Beginner was thorough and obsessive, and used little errors to show him as mafia because he was rushing as mafia, but after playing in multiple games, he's done that as town before, too, so it just folds into my general inability to understand the thought process and/or motivation

So I'm not taking a solid position on either of you, though for once, of the two of you it's Khaos that I would really wanna lynch otherwise, rather than Beginner.

Dead Players
1 Bull_Diesel - Mafia Goon - Lynched DP1

Before getting to the list of active players, I think it would be helpful for reference to have the votes from last DP in this one:

Bull_Diesel - 7/7 - blackhawk1331, Bullish, Beginner, JonMilne, TheAntidoter, Khaos_Mage, drafterman
JonMilne - 2/7 - Logic_on_Rails, bladerunner060
Yraelz/FourTrouble - 1/7 - Bull_Diesel
Not Voting (3): Yraelz/FourTrouble, TUF, Noumena

(beginner was left in w/ 1/7, but a blank slot. I believe that was an error, and originally Khaos' vote, which he switched to Bull. 7+2+1+3=13...)

Active Players

1 Beginner - Null (as noted)

2 blackhawk1331 - Null, leaning to town, but I may have to reread the DP to be more confident (his formatting sometimes makes me go crosseyes, and I want to be sure that I didn't skim or miss something). Still, vote #2 on our confirmed scum (shifted to #1 when our hydra withdrew their vote) and, like I said, I think the mafia would be insane to throw one of their own to the wolves right away.

3 bladerunner060 - That's me

4 Bullish - Town. Yraelz's reasoning, and because he was vote #3 on Bull_Diesel. The votes after that get a null reading from me (because it was becoming clear the tide was turning against Bull).

5 drafterman - Slight mafia read. He hammered without really much fanfare, despite FT's previous notes about such. Seems pretty consistent with "Welp, my team-mate's about to get lynched, I may as well get in on't". (Khaos is similar, but I've decided to force myself to consider him null...with difficulty). However, while I know several players here are vets (including Yraelz), I also know drafter is pretty high on the list of respected mafia players, too, which means that I should have something pretty darn solid to even begin to suspect/impugn him.

6 JonMilne - Lied. I don't feel he's helped much with hunting, though I think he was on the defensive enough, and the Bull_Diesel flamewar was distracting enough, that that doesn't mean much.

*Right before posting, I refreshed because I'm finally learning to do that, and FT raised a very good point that I hadn't thought of, Bull's, voting behavior. I've moved Jon down in my list for the moment. It may be enough to get him off altogether...*

7 Khaos_Mage - Null (as noted)

8 Logic_on_Rails - It has been said his behavior is part for the course for him. But I'd like him to participate more this DP.

9 Noumena - Null so far, but probably leaning town.

10 TheAntidoter - Mafia

11 TUF - Null so far, but probably leaning town.

12 Yraelz/FourTrouble - Town for reasons above.

We know there are still 3 mafia.

We know they can't win so long as a chosen still lives (so woo hoo for possible win-by-default still being open!)

My order of reads, or at least the lynches I'm in favor of, so far:
TA

Much less in favor of:
Jon
drafter/beginner/Khaos -- (Yes, I said I was making myself read them null...but still)
LoR

After that, it's all too null-to-town.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

TUF, can you justify your lynch choices please?

At 8/28/2013 1:34:58 PM, TheAntidoter wrote:
VTL JON

Let's string em up.

Why?

At 8/28/2013 1:34:58 PM, TheAntidoter wrote:
VTL JON

Let's string em up.

Carelessly casting away votes the whole game, something you commonly do as mafia. WWE, and alexandria quick come to mind.

At 8/28/2013 1:42:23 PM, drafterman wrote:
You don't read me or Beginner as Town, given that he caught, and I pursued and hammered, Bull?

I read beginner as town. I do not read you as anything.

TUF, I didn't say we should decide who chosen would be. That'd be impossible. I said we should start lynching people that could go either way (good play or bad play) because, imo, they are the most likely to have been vetoed, and so the least likely to be chosen. I also said that takes a back seat to behavioral analysis.

At 8/28/2013 1:45:15 PM, blackhawk1331 wrote:

At 8/28/2013 1:02:58 PM, Khaos_Mage wrote:
I think F-16 should tell TUF to stop posting...LOL

TUF is part of the game. Why would F-16 do that?

Seriously?
To stop posting in the DP1 thread...

At 8/28/2013 1:46:36 PM, bladerunner060 wrote:

At 8/28/2013 12:41:47 PM, TUF wrote:

At 8/27/2013 5:17:03 PM, bladerunner060 wrote:
I don't think we can make any positive statements about anyone yet. Except that there is no explanation of Jon's behavior that isn't a lie.

Do you think there is EVER a town reason to lie? What made you so dead into the LAL policy, btw?

Well, in this game I feel like all our "tells" are weak at best. So it's not that I'm, per se into LAL, so much as he has done something objectively untrustworthy.

Untrustworthy? How so? You know there are only goons, and vanillas. Even if he didn't, there is only evidence that he lied to gambit as I suggested, or that he is town and didn't read the OP. Do you not see pro-town actions for falsing a power role, hoping to be a night kill? Because the same has been done many a time before.

In games with roles and such, I lean towards the lynch of anyone who's proven to have lied, but I do totally recognize that there 100% are totally valid reasons to lie. It's just that this is a game where none of us trust each other. And our "trust level" varies depending on whether we think someone is lying about their affiliation or role or reads. But with a definite liar, it's no longer "I'm pretty sure", it's "You definitely gave me bullsh*t".

So then let's look into why. Why as scum, is it more likely than town?

At 8/28/2013 1:53:00 PM, blackhawk1331 wrote:
TUF, I didn't say we should decide who chosen would be. That'd be impossible. I said we should start lynching people that could go either way (good play or bad play) because, imo, they are the most likely to have been vetoed, and so the least likely to be chosen. I also said that takes a back seat to behavioral analysis.

Backseat aside, who would qualify in your opinion right now, as someone who goes either way?

At 8/28/2013 1:45:55 PM, blackhawk1331 wrote:
Not that I disagree that noumena seems town, why do you say 100%?

Noumena's redaction conversation with FT was probably quite genuine. He originally FOS'd FT for the chosen comments. But when it was later brought to light that the mafia were only allowed to veto one potential chosen he retracted his FOS based on the misunderstanding.

If Noumena were mafia he would have a very difficult time misunderstanding how the chosen mechanism works (the mafia had to start the game by selecting the immune townie).

It could be that Noumena elaborately contrived the entire misunderstanding as a ploy for town cred. That would be quite genius. However, Noumena approached the entire issue by bandwagoning a comment that Khaos had made. No offense to Khaos, but a genius mafia member is unlikely to bandwagon Khaos' logic in order to get town cred. If Noumena was playing dumb he could have done so on multiple issues without following Khaos' lead. ;)

At 8/28/2013 1:46:06 PM, TUF wrote:

At 8/28/2013 1:45:15 PM, blackhawk1331 wrote:

At 8/28/2013 1:02:58 PM, Khaos_Mage wrote:
I think F-16 should tell TUF to stop posting...LOL

TUF is part of the game. Why would F-16 do that?

Because the DP had ended and I was still catching up :P

Oh. I don't think it really matters since we just go into the next dp.