WhiteFlag Nightless Chosen Mafia DP4

Dead Players
1 Bull_Diesel - Mafia Goon - Lynched DP1
2 TheAntidoter - Vanilla Townie - Lynched DP2
3 Khaos_Mage - Mafia Goon - Lynched DP3

Active Players
1 Beginner
2 blackhawk1331
3 bladerunner060
4 Bullish
5 drafterman
6 JonMilne
7 Logic_on_Rails
8 Noumena
9 TUF
10 Yraelz/FourTrouble

With 10 alive, it takes 6 votes to lynch.

Time Limit: ~96 hours
DP ends 7:45 PM PST 7/4/2013 (Wednesday)

Vtl Logic.

People should also be posting their reads. Mine (in regards to the living players) haven't changed much. Only TUF and Drafter seem more null than I originally put them as.

Active Players
1 Beginner- def town
2 blackhawk1331- def town
3 bladerunner060- mostly null leaning scum
4 Bullish- probs town
5 drafterman- mostly null
6 JonMilne- def town
7 Logic_on_Rails- scum
8 Noumena- def town
9 TUF- mostly null
10 Yraelz/FourTrouble- def town

OH YEAHHHHH!!! KHAOS TAKE IT!!!!! nac nac nac nac nac

At 8/31/2013 9:53:31 PM, Noumena wrote:
Active Players
1 Beginner- def town
2 blackhawk1331- def town (dispute, null)
3 bladerunner060- mostly null leaning scum
4 Bullish- probs town
5 drafterman- mostly null
6 JonMilne- def town
7 Logic_on_Rails- scum
8 Noumena- def town
9 TUF- mostly null
10 Yraelz/FourTrouble- def town

Good job Town!

VTL Logic_on_rails.

This is going well.

Def town: Me, FT, Beginner, Blackhawk, and Jon
Number of living players: 10 (2 scum; 8 town)
Chances of randomly lynching scum: 20%
Chances of randomly lynching scum without "def town" in calculus: 50%

Seems like pretty good odds, assuming one agrees with me on who is def town.

Bullish, reads?

I'll probably look into Drafter sometime tomorrow. I think it will also be useful to examine other interactions Khaos had on DP1. It's interesting that he chose to defend his team mate with four still up.

Reads

1 Beginner - slight town
2 blackhawk1331 - strong town read
3 bladerunner060 - slight town
4 Bullish - null
5 drafterman - leaning scum (new; explain below)
6 JonMilne - leaning scum
7 Logic_on_Rails - This handsome chap is town.
8 Noumena - strong town read
9 TUF - null
10 Yraelz/FourTrouble - Town (new addition)

Some new insights:

The accuracy of FT's scum-hunting this game indicates he is town. In games where he is town we see him annihilate the Mafia, though he does make mistakes (like TA and me) . Had we kept lynching town I would have pushed a policy lynch on FT. You can see post 76 of DP 2 for an allusion to this idea. I'm interested in hearing who FT thinks is scum, aside from me of course.

The lack of scum reads I'm seeing tends to indicate that there are no scum reads. A lack of scum reads stems from inactivity. That's why Drafter is stated as leaning scum above. I haven't actually seen scum reads from Drafter. Once I identify scum reads from somebody other than Jon, Drafter's likely affiliation will change accordingly. For now, VTL Drafter

Given the aforementioned reads, our random lynching percentage is becoming very solid.

I'd like to take a pause Today to see if we can figure out the last 2 mafia (no fun if we just lynch the last guy and never consider who his partner is).

Does anyone here think Logic is town?

I was really hoping someone would do that meta on drafter. From memory of his play as scum, I'd call him town here based on his interactions with both Bull/Khaos. He tends to not interact with his partners nearly as much as he did with Bull in this game. That said, drafter's also smart enough to change things up every game.

Logic is definitely correct, however, that blackhawk and Noumena are town.

Logic, I want to know why you believed Jon was scum. Whether you were pushing for his lynch or not, you clearly took the position that he was scummy. Why?

At 8/31/2013 11:00:48 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
Logic, I want to know why you believed Jon was scum. Whether you were pushing for his lynch or not, you clearly took the position that he was scummy. Why?

I'm going to go through events sequentially. You might have noted that my certainty on Jon being scum now has waxed and waned. There's a reason I'm voting Drafter currently.

At first it's partially a 'gotcha' moment - look at how the votes lined up ('Pray tell, where's the cop?' - #46 DP 1) . The articulation of my initial case comes in my next post #256 . At this point I'm taking Jon's statement as supposedly true, indicating he checked his PM. If he checked his PM then the ignorance, however unlikely, is Mafia sided. I also had thoughts in my mind like 'the first thing a townie does is check his PM. A Mafioso first checks to see the pressure on him, and reacts.' Basically, although I acknowledged that Jon could have done it in stupidity as either affiliation, I thought it was more likely as Mafia based upon instinctual reactions. That's where the case lay going into DP 2.

On DP 2 I didn't really think about the case much - it wasn't really gathering support. I noted #259 of Beginner's, scenario 3, which I felt showed the basic thrust of suspicions on Jon. All I did though was have a placeholder vote, which I shifted when I decided to lynch TA.

DP 3 brought about the veto process. Something I didn't say in my posts at the time was that I note Jon has remained active. That's consistent with his scum play in The Shades of Our Lives, but it indicates some attempt at finding scum. That sort of balances out the veto point, so I have no strong reason to press Jon.

DP 4 and my focus has shifted to finding the other Mafia. My inability to pick up scum tells suggests that it's an inactive who is the other Mafia. That's Drafter, hence my vote.

Drafter won't be back for a day or two. He said so in his Beginner's game series. If you're going to pressure him, don't expect him to respond until Monday.

Basically, pressuring/voting drafter is a waste of time at this point. If your main point against him is his inactivity, then you should reconsider.

Okay...

1 Beginner - town
2 blackhawk1331 - town
3 bladerunner060 - null leaning scum
4 Bullish - town
5 drafterman - town
6 JonMilne - I am town
7 Logic_on_Rails - scum
8 Noumena - null leaning scum
9 TUF - town
10 Yraelz/FourTrouble - town

I think Logic is the best choice at this point. VTL Logic.

Vote Count

Logic_on_Rails - 3/6 - Noumena Bullish JonMilne
drafterman - 1/6 - Logic_on_Rails

Not Voting (6): TUF drafterman blackhawk1331 Beginner Yraelz/FourTrouble bladerunner060

Beginner:

drafter said on 8/30 that he would be out of town for 36 hours.
That doesn't affect his behavior from prior to that, yeah?

It does mean voting in order to pressure him won't be effective, since he won't be here to pressure.

But it also means he will be here to pressure starting at aroung 0700 9/1...which is pretty soon, like 4 hours from now? (Granted, I doubt he'll walk in the door and FIRST THING check his mafia games, but still...)
---------------------------------------------------------

Whoever the last two mafia are, we know they can't bus the other, at least, because it would be madness. I also think they're probably pretty scared at this point.

(I don't really like reliance on supposed probabilities. They seem geared to encouraging us to "trust" the def town list. Trust nothing! But, if we're going to talk about percentages: does everyone know about this? http://games-net.de... ... I was just looking for a formula because I was too lazy to figure it out myself, and Google delivered that)

I lean towards supporting a drafter lynch. He hasn't been partiuclarly helpful, and he should be. He's drafter, for goodness' sake. He who guides us little beginners through our first games.

He's either mafia, or hasn't been a very helpful townie.

I want to hear more from Jon, whose analysis hasn't been stellar so far. Jon, can you give a full explanation of your reads?

For the moment, I lean drafterman.

---------------------------------------------------

However, LoR has been more vocal than previously (or the rest of the thread has been quieter, making his posts a higher percentage...). Could be defensive posturing, could be not; I don't know his behavior enough to be sure. But if we lynch him and he's mafia, we win! If we lynch him and he's not mafia...well, we'll have a better idea of whose spreadsheets are trustworthy.

So I'm throwing my hat on LoR for now in a shameless bandwagon. If it's not a quick win, then I want drafter to be more talkative, or dead, next round.

VTL Logic

(I will freely admit that I'm willing to swap to drafter if a bandwagon forms for him, though...).

---------------------------------------------------------------
Some responses to last round:

@FT:

At 8/31/2013 5:14:51 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
I don't quite follow what you're saying. You didn't vote on Khaos because you always read him as mafia, but then you realized you've only played 1 game with him, and in that game, you were mafia, making your read null. Why would any of that make someone vote for you? I don't get what you're self-conscious about. If your thought process was genuine, what is there to worry about?

Well, it would be hypocritical of me to jump on the errors of others if I do not also think that it would be reasonable to jump on my own, now, would it?

Why are you defending yourself from something that you're not even being attacked for? Has anyone called you scum for your Khaos-misunderstanding issue?

No. But I'm perfectly capable of recognizing what I did, and how it would look to me, if I weren't me.

If you're town, are you just going to give up just because you have had bad success reading people in the past?

Definitely not.

If the only thing I had to go on was suspicion of them, I'd push it. Is there a better way to explain a desire not to take a position on a specific person until necessary? My only real point was that I was witholding judgment on them, while analyzing the others. If I had a strong town read on everyone else, well, that would narrow the field down rather a lot then, neh? But I also gave my list of lynches I'd support.

The whole point is to improve, to start seeing details you used to miss, and eventually be able to differentiate their town behavior from their scum behavior. I don't understand that posture, especially from someone like you, someone who seems to put significant effort into the game, has a good head on their shoulders, and seems to want to improve. You didn't even want to join regular games until you felt ready for them. That's the sign of someone struggling to get better, not someone giving up.

I think I seemed to be giving up more than I intend to. I have a tendency to think that my analysis will influence others and either they will change my mind, or they will agree with me. If I don't trust my analysis, I was trying to indicate I didn't want it to be used for support.

Also, even if you're reads are always wrong, it doesn't matter.

I don't know about that...if I'm always wrong, I'm hurting the town. The goal (in a perfect world) is that we instantly sniff out the mafia. Mislynches hurt us (even when they're our best option...getting punched in the arm is better than getting punched in the D, but it's still not good).

What matters is that, by trying to figure the game out, we get to see how you're thinking about the game. How are we supposed to know if you're town or not if you aren't trying to figure things out?

Fair enough. I will phrase things differently to make it clearer what my read is, even when I think I don't want to actively be involved in a lynch.

@Beginner:

At 8/31/2013 5:16:54 PM, Beginner wrote:

Blade, let me ask you this: did you know that the role PM's were in the startup thread prior to my asking about the Biggest Weapons thing?

Yes. But I was asked to join after everyone else had (as a replacement for Sarcastic or Lucky, with LoR being the other replacement, because the other two seemed to have vanished), so I was coming in at the last second.

If you did, why did you not point this out earlier?

I didn't say anything in part because I was jumping in at the very start, as opposed to signing up like normal, and because I only would have ruined your gambit, which I only see the need to jump on if it became an issue, as unless it's some kind of tell-gambit that might directly influence my affiliation read (Jon's, for example), and because Bull did, 10 minutes after you asked me (though, granted, it was like 9 hours after you asked it the first time, of Bull, which was like 2 AM).

Since it seemed like a BAD gambit, in that the roles were freely available, I would have wanted to see how you reacted, except Bull took it upon himself to ruin your gambit anyway.

Consider these questions. Now: Barring my meta behavior, why do both you think that it is a viable reason to FOS me?

Because:

It might be a ploy in hopes we'll confirm people as town who are not town. If we did so, and listened to their reads more than we should, that could cause us to mislynch. This is a bad thing. But it does at least appear as a hunting thing. I don't strongly suspect you, but you made a gambit premised on faulty grounds, which makes us have to figure out whether you did it like a fox.

The most probable fact is that most, if not all, of the players at that point in time did not have know about it at all.

Subsequent responses in that thread made it clear that that is likely, but I did not know that until it became a moot point, and it rather surprised me.

I know I didn't (the basis on which I founded this conjecture).

Question is, did you? <---Question to all townies

I'm actually curious how many people DID know...I would have thought it should be common knowledge of everyone who signed up through normal processes.

I was wrong about both TA and khaos, and am not really feeling confident in myself right now for scum hunting. I would like to dedicate an hour or so to re reading the Intently, but I need to find the motivation.

At 8/31/2013 10:32:30 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
I was really hoping someone would do that meta on drafter. From memory of his play as scum, I'd call him town here based on his interactions with both Bull/Khaos. He tends to not interact with his partners nearly as much as he did with Bull in this game. That said, drafter's also smart enough to change things up every game.

I can attest to this, from historical mafia. I don't remember drafter interacting with me much in the game or in our PM. This was also true in the Thaddeus rivers game.

I would also like to add that I think Khaos was likely the only Mafia member who bussed on his fellow Mafia goon, Bull, since Bull's lynch was inevitable. It wouldn't surprise me if among the lynchers for Khaos, there's at least one Mafia member who bussed there as well, and since Logic is one of those who voted for him, that makes him an even stronger candidate for scum if the Mafia pulled the bussing technique again. Bladerunner and Noumena, who I have as reads of "Null leaning scum", were also in on that lynch.

TUF was absent again from a Mafia lynch though, following on from being absent from Bull_Diesel's lynch and being involved in the lynch of TA. I'm keeping my vote on Logic, but if Logic flips town then TUF is going to be the focus of my VTLs.

At 9/1/2013 5:54:41 AM, JonMilne wrote:
I would also like to add that I think Khaos was likely the only Mafia member who bussed on his fellow Mafia goon, Bull, since Bull's lynch was inevitable. It wouldn't surprise me if among the lynchers for Khaos, there's at least one Mafia member who bussed there as well, and since Logic is one of those who voted for him, that makes him an even stronger candidate for scum if the Mafia pulled the bussing technique again. Bladerunner and Noumena, who I have as reads of "Null leaning scum", were also in on that lynch.

TUF was absent again from a Mafia lynch though, following on from being absent from Bull_Diesel's lynch and being involved in the lynch of TA. I'm keeping my vote on Logic, but if Logic flips town then TUF is going to be the focus of my VTLs.

You are focusing on voting tendencies without considering reasons behind them, or behavior. So... If you think I am that obvious as mafia, then I take this as an insult.

At 9/1/2013 2:45:46 AM, TUF wrote:
I was wrong about both TA and khaos, and am not really feeling confident in myself right now for scum hunting. I would like to dedicate an hour or so to re reading the Intently, but I need to find the motivation.

http://www.youtube.com...

First minute and a half.

Here are the reasons that I was going to jump on LoR's lynch. His poorly founded continuing suspicion of jon (although it seems to have waned) and his inactivity. The suspicion of jon is still concerning, but I'm not so sure on the activity part. First, to clear things up, I'm not calling the lack of activity scummy LoR behavior. I'm going at it because we need to lynch someone, and I personally think that the inactives are our best bet for random shots at this point because they offer less analysis. Going on this, I was going to search through the dps and get a post count of all living players to see activity level, but then I realized a problem. Just because someone (LoR comes to mind) doesn't post much, doesn't mean that he offers the least analysis. His posts are generally all analysis. SInce it's the lack of analysis that I see as a problem, that's who we should go after (which we do anyway). I can't recall off the top of my mind, but is there anyone who's offered next to no analysis? I can't remember much from drafter, but I'll have to check because I'm definitely not certain enough about the content of his posts to push a lynch on it.

At 9/1/2013 1:41:39 AM, JonMilne wrote:
Okay...

1 Beginner - town
2 blackhawk1331 - town
3 bladerunner060 - null leaning scum
4 Bullish - town
5 drafterman - town

Elaborate.

6 JonMilne - I am town
7 Logic_on_Rails - scum
8 Noumena - null leaning scum

Dafug

9 TUF - town
10 Yraelz/FourTrouble - town

I think Logic is the best choice at this point. VTL Logic.

At 9/1/2013 8:32:35 AM, blackhawk1331 wrote:
Here are the reasons that I was going to jump on LoR's lynch. His poorly founded continuing suspicion of jon (although it seems to have waned) and his inactivity. The suspicion of jon is still concerning, but I'm not so sure on the activity part. First, to clear things up, I'm not calling the lack of activity scummy LoR behavior. I'm going at it because we need to lynch someone, and I personally think that the inactives are our best bet for random shots at this point because they offer less analysis. Going on this, I was going to search through the dps and get a post count of all living players to see activity level, but then I realized a problem. Just because someone (LoR comes to mind) doesn't post much, doesn't mean that he offers the least analysis. His posts are generally all analysis. SInce it's the lack of analysis that I see as a problem, that's who we should go after (which we do anyway). I can't recall off the top of my mind, but is there anyone who's offered next to no analysis? I can't remember much from drafter, but I'll have to check because I'm definitely not certain enough about the content of his posts to push a lynch on it.

I don't think "lack of analysis" is going to be good to go off of right now. Look at TA's lynch

At 9/1/2013 12:03:44 AM, Logic_on_rails wrote:

DP 4 and my focus has shifted to finding the other Mafia. My inability to pick up scum tells suggests

that yer either not looking or not looking hard enough.

that it's an inactive who is the other Mafia.

I thought there were four mafiosos, meaning two left instead of one.

That's Drafter, hence my vote.

I re-read Dp3 and think Logic was probably the only mafioso on Khaos' lynch. The fact that he 'settled' for Khaos should be a huge scum tell given how obvious his case was. I'm going to go look at a few of his games where he was scum to get a better meta but the lack of reads + hesitance (settling vote) to kill Khaos seems pretty strong imo.