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Overwatch Mafia DP4

TUF
Posts: 23,819
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1/21/2017 11:17:58 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
GRAVEYARD

YYW- Winston- Janitor- Mafia (Lynched DP1)

SeventhProfessor- Torbjorn- Vanilla- Town (Died NP1)

Rosalie- D.va- Roleblocker- Mafia (Lynched DP2)

Mikal- Tracer- Bodyguard- Town (Died NP2)

Warren42- You are Ana, the overpowered sniping healer. You are a vanilla and can contribute to the game with your voice and your vote. You win with the town. (Lynched DP3)

FourTrouble- You are Soldier 76, one of the veteran Overwatch heroes known for being an effective vigilante after Overwatch was shut down. You are politician, and can control the vote of a player once per day phase. To use your role, you must tell me whose vote you want to control and on which target. Their vote will be stuck on your targeted player for the remainder of the day phase and cannot be changed until the next day phase. You win with the town.

LIVING PLAYERS

1. VOT/Trekie (Hydra trekie, subbing for VOT while his internet is down)
2. ThinkBig
3. Chaos88 (Replacing Geographia)
4. Smithereens
5. ShabShoral
6. Yraelz
7. TheFlex
8. Zaradi
9. MattTheDreamer
10. Vaarka/ Mikal (Replacing Firewings)
11. DD
12. Danielle (Replacing F-16)

7/12 votes required to lynch.

DP4 ending in 72 hours, or on 1/24/17 at 4PM MST
Anonymous
1/21/2017 11:18:45 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
There is definitely a framer. I re copped smith last night and got an innocent. Never lynch smith and 7th
Anonymous
1/21/2017 11:22:35 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
Miller + Framer doesn't make much sense. Matt, why are you a miller?
Anonymous
1/21/2017 11:42:15 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
@Vaarka @Dani, any results we should be aware of?
Mikal
Posts: 11,252
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1/21/2017 11:44:00 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
Now that we have lynched the guilty investigation, we can start theorizing on what went wrong. There are a lot of scenarios that could have played out given some of the actions Thus Far. I think we can discard the fact that mafia are playing poorly, they at least one good player with them.

First let's look at thinkingbig

He investigated warren and got a guilty
and smithers and got a guilty

Possible scenarios

(1) TB is a cop and was hit with perfect framer choices. Framer picked both targets correctly (this is a long shot but amazing play if it happened

(2) He is a cop and investigated warren and warren was framed because he was the likely target to be copped. He got a guilty on smithers which is accurate. This would implicate smithers and mean bossy and smithers are pulling a mafia gambit as mason

(3) TB is mafia and pulled off a fake claim as cop. This would heavily rely on smithers and bossy being town, because I don't think there is a cop and mason. We also need to look at it from a role balance perspective. If there is a cop it justifies the miller, If TB is lying and fake claiming, it actually brings into questions Matts credibility as miller. Because why would there be a miller without a cop.

(4) Somehow mafia thought TB had a power roll and is redirecting him every night to one of their own which would basically mean all of his results would be guilty.

(5) hes fake claiming as town

Then Danielle

She watched TB and said that only I visited. This leads to 3 viable options as well

(1) She lied and is mafia. I find this unlikely because I had said I visited him and most people assumed already that I had visited him. So why would she say only I visited him. It could be to lead the town to believe that I was the NK target for some reason

(2) That I actually was the NK target. I was going into this DP thinking I for sure picked the right person but treckie was right. I don't think anyone would have picked up on my roll so much based on the CGI claims, but there was one part where I asked if someone claimed doctor. That is a soft claim in and of itself. I could have actually been the NK target.

(3) I picked the right person and there is a ninja

The part that really bothers me is the cop mason claim. TB needs to be town to justify the miller claim, but what is the chance of a mason and cop being in the same game. It can be possible but we almost have to be certain at this point that it's true

Rosalie visited shab which basically town confirms him, and if shab is saying he went to smithers then that is basically two town confirms barring some insane mafia play where she visited shab as her mafia counterpart which is almost impossible.

I think given the results the best thing to do is approach under the pretense that smithers and shab are basically confirmed. I can't work out a way that would otherwise make sense. Shab getting RB by rosalie which he did say earlier as well before seventh joined basically confirms him which would confirm smithers

the chances of (1) being likely are slim to none (2) is also very unlikely which means either (3) and (4) are the best choices seeing as how if (5) is true then he is lannan bad at mafia. I'm almost starting to buy smithers claim that he could be a role cop. There is the chance that mafia caught on to him being cop in DP1 which I can't find evidence of of. They would have to know he is cop. Unless mafia has a role cop and Tuf allowed roles to go through individually or something. For the redirect to work, they would need a reason to keep redirecting him over and over and they would have to know this from DP1.

I'm leaning heavily on (3) right now

The Danielle thing is also pretty easy to explain I think. I think Danielle is town after thinking on it. Me asking is there a doctor in the game heavily suggests why the would target me. I'm pretty sure I misread that horribly and I was the NK target.

The best way to proceed is look at TB. He is the odd one out given the circumstances.

The only viable scenario where he could come up with a wrong guilty given that the mod said there are no flavors

are a

(1) framer

This again would mean that they framed warren. This part I could buy. But it would also mean they would have to chose smithers correctly because of Shab basically being town confirmed. This is very unlikely. Nailing two framer targets as to who the top is targeting is slim to none.

(2) redirect

This is just as unlikey because they would have to know he is cop from the first DP. Which I can't find a way for them to know this

The only other scenario invovles him lying and again, if he is lying it really brings into question the miller claim. Granted TUF could have intended for him to fake claim cop and told him in advance there was no cop.

The more I'm talking myself through this, I can't find a way that makes sense of the two guilities.
FourTrouble
Posts: 16,245
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1/21/2017 11:50:03 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
Someone town, please invite me to hydra. TUF said I could.
If you'd like a vote on your debate, please send me a link. I'll do my best to offer a sufficient RFD in your favor.

Also: If you'd like to vote bomb a debate and need help crafting a sufficient RFD, let me know.
Mikal
Posts: 11,252
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1/21/2017 11:52:04 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/21/2017 11:50:03 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
Someone town, please invite me to hydra. TUF said I could.

I want out. Take my role with vaakra.

Wife's pissed I'm on this to much
FourTrouble
Posts: 16,245
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1/21/2017 11:52:34 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/21/2017 11:52:04 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 1/21/2017 11:50:03 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
Someone town, please invite me to hydra. TUF said I could.

I want out. Take my role with vaakra.

Wife's pissed I'm on this to much

Perfect.
If you'd like a vote on your debate, please send me a link. I'll do my best to offer a sufficient RFD in your favor.

Also: If you'd like to vote bomb a debate and need help crafting a sufficient RFD, let me know.
Mikal
Posts: 11,252
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1/21/2017 11:54:49 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/21/2017 11:52:34 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
At 1/21/2017 11:52:04 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 1/21/2017 11:50:03 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
Someone town, please invite me to hydra. TUF said I could.

I want out. Take my role with vaakra.

Wife's pissed I'm on this to much

Perfect.

You better win this man.
Mikal
Posts: 11,252
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1/22/2017 12:03:17 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/21/2017 11:52:34 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
At 1/21/2017 11:52:04 PM, Mikal wrote:
At 1/21/2017 11:50:03 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
Someone town, please invite me to hydra. TUF said I could.

I want out. Take my role with vaakra.

Wife's pissed I'm on this to much

Perfect.

Connor said you could swap so I relinquish control to you. Gl
Discipulus_Didicit
Posts: 4,489
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1/22/2017 12:03:33 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/21/2017 11:44:00 PM, Mikal wrote:
I don't think anyone would have picked up on my roll so much based on the CGI claims,

*Brain implodes*

I'll be on to do something useful in an hour or so.
Reporting a scumbag to the mods of DDO:

https://youtu.be...
FourTrouble
Posts: 16,245
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1/22/2017 12:05:13 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
Think, why did you investigate Smith again? That makes no sense.
If you'd like a vote on your debate, please send me a link. I'll do my best to offer a sufficient RFD in your favor.

Also: If you'd like to vote bomb a debate and need help crafting a sufficient RFD, let me know.
Anonymous
1/22/2017 12:09:47 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/22/2017 12:05:13 AM, FourTrouble wrote:
Think, why did you investigate Smith again? That makes no sense.

To double check my results. There is obviously a framer in the game.
Discipulus_Didicit
Posts: 4,489
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1/22/2017 12:10:04 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/22/2017 12:05:13 AM, FourTrouble wrote:
Think, why did you investigate Smith again? That makes no sense.

You be dead.

Though I would also like an answer to this, TB.
Reporting a scumbag to the mods of DDO:

https://youtu.be...
Anonymous
1/22/2017 12:10:41 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/22/2017 12:10:04 AM, Discipulus_Didicit wrote:
At 1/22/2017 12:05:13 AM, FourTrouble wrote:
Think, why did you investigate Smith again? That makes no sense.

You be dead.

Though I would also like an answer to this, TB.

See above. I want to double check my results.
Discipulus_Didicit
Posts: 4,489
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1/22/2017 12:12:42 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
TUF, if a framer targeted someone would that person show up as guilty on all subsequent investigations or just investigations that happened that night? Hypothetically, of course...
Reporting a scumbag to the mods of DDO:

https://youtu.be...
Danielle
Posts: 26,599
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1/22/2017 12:12:47 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
There were 2 flimsy cases against me: I must be scum because F16 chose to leave the game as soon as it began (before he could "know" that FT was town) which has been thoroughly debunked. And that warren implicated F16 in a scum slip, because he had said that F16 posted in the game when he hadn't. Based on ThinkBig's re-investigation and warren's flip, we know there is a framer, meaning warren was framed, meaning warren was never in a PM with F16, meaning I was RIGHT in saying warren made a mistake, meaning both cases against me are dead.

I character claimed early. I role claimed early. There were no CCs. Regardless of the fact that Mikal cannot technically confirm he visited ThinkBig on NP2, if that were a lie, he would be PUSHING FOR MY LYNCH. The fact that Mikal is not pushing for my lynch pretty much confirms I am telling the truth about his visit to ThinkBig on NP2. I didn't see anyone else visit ThinkBig on NP2, but 1) there could easily be a mafia Ninja or 2) Mikal was the target. Both of those things are plausible.

On NP3 I watched ThinkBig again. He was visited by NO ONE.

Any useful night actions? When everyone checks in we can proceed. I'm out and about this evening, but I will check back sporadically when I'm able to. BBL.
Danielle
Posts: 26,599
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1/22/2017 12:13:22 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/21/2017 11:22:35 PM, ThinkBig wrote:
Miller + Framer doesn't make much sense. Matt, why are you a miller?

I was thinking the same thing. BBL.
SeventhProfessor
Posts: 6,576
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1/22/2017 1:05:25 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/21/2017 11:44:00 PM, Mikal wrote:
The part that really bothers me is the cop mason claim.

Are you forgetting we also have a claimed watcher AND a claimed tracker?
Stooge the Worst

#StandWithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

"bossy r u like 85 years old and have lost ur mind"
~mysteriouscrystals

"I've honestly never seen seventh post anything that wasn't completely idiotic in a trying-to-be-funny way."
~F-16

"SeventhProfessor is actually a surprisingly good poster."
~Devilry

https://docs.google.com...
SeventhProfessor
Posts: 6,576
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1/22/2017 1:09:55 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/22/2017 12:12:47 AM, Danielle wrote:
There were 2 flimsy cases against me: I must be scum because F16 chose to leave the game as soon as it began (before he could "know" that FT was town) which has been thoroughly debunked. And that warren implicated F16 in a scum slip, because he had said that F16 posted in the game when he hadn't. Based on ThinkBig's re-investigation and warren's flip, we know there is a framer, meaning warren was framed, meaning warren was never in a PM with F16, meaning I was RIGHT in saying warren made a mistake, meaning both cases against me are dead.

I character claimed early. I role claimed early. There were no CCs.

Considering the flips from maf, I suspect they were provided fake claims. However, warren's flip does help you imo.

Any useful night actions? When everyone checks in we can proceed. I'm out and about this evening, but I will check back sporadically when I'm able to. BBL.

I lied about being 1-shot. I'm 2-shot. VOT/trekie is town.
Stooge the Worst

#StandWithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

"bossy r u like 85 years old and have lost ur mind"
~mysteriouscrystals

"I've honestly never seen seventh post anything that wasn't completely idiotic in a trying-to-be-funny way."
~F-16

"SeventhProfessor is actually a surprisingly good poster."
~Devilry

https://docs.google.com...
SeventhProfessor
Posts: 6,576
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1/22/2017 1:12:55 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
Conf town
Me
Smithers
VOT/trekie

Townread
Danielle
Mikal
Zaradi
Yraelz

Lean Scum
Matt (I would prefer his lynch today)
ThinkBig
TheFlex
Stooge the Worst

#StandWithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

"bossy r u like 85 years old and have lost ur mind"
~mysteriouscrystals

"I've honestly never seen seventh post anything that wasn't completely idiotic in a trying-to-be-funny way."
~F-16

"SeventhProfessor is actually a surprisingly good poster."
~Devilry

https://docs.google.com...
SeventhProfessor
Posts: 6,576
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1/22/2017 1:14:31 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
For some reason, I don't really buy a useless cop that the mafia has never even tried to kill. And, should that cop not exist, I find a miller even less likely.
Stooge the Worst

#StandWithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

"bossy r u like 85 years old and have lost ur mind"
~mysteriouscrystals

"I've honestly never seen seventh post anything that wasn't completely idiotic in a trying-to-be-funny way."
~F-16

"SeventhProfessor is actually a surprisingly good poster."
~Devilry

https://docs.google.com...
Anonymous
1/22/2017 1:16:45 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/22/2017 1:14:31 AM, SeventhProfessor wrote:
For some reason, I don't really buy a useless cop that the mafia has never even tried to kill.

What do you mean they haven't tried to kill me? I was bodyguarded and the bodyguard died.
SeventhProfessor
Posts: 6,576
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1/22/2017 1:25:13 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/22/2017 1:16:45 AM, ThinkBig wrote:
At 1/22/2017 1:14:31 AM, SeventhProfessor wrote:
For some reason, I don't really buy a useless cop that the mafia has never even tried to kill.

What do you mean they haven't tried to kill me? I was bodyguarded and the bodyguard died.

But the only one to visit you was the bodyguard. Do you suggest the scum team is comprised of a janitor, roleblocker, ninja, AND redirector/framer? If you don't believe they are so powerful, we can come to one of two conclusions:

a. You and Matt are scumbuddies
b. Danielle is guilty

Matt could be guilty either way, which is why I'd rather lynch him today. If he's innocent, you are confirmed town, and we lynch Danielle. If he's guilty, you are likely scum, so we take all the rope in Texas and bring you to the tallest oak tree we can find. Reasonable, yes?
Stooge the Worst

#StandWithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

"bossy r u like 85 years old and have lost ur mind"
~mysteriouscrystals

"I've honestly never seen seventh post anything that wasn't completely idiotic in a trying-to-be-funny way."
~F-16

"SeventhProfessor is actually a surprisingly good poster."
~Devilry

https://docs.google.com...
Yraelz
Posts: 5,300
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1/22/2017 1:26:51 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
People should out their results and what not.

I'm glad we finally got Warren.

I don't have time to play in the next few hours, but I asked FT to hydra this spot. He'll probably have things to say.
Anonymous
1/22/2017 1:27:09 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/22/2017 1:25:13 AM, SeventhProfessor wrote:
At 1/22/2017 1:16:45 AM, ThinkBig wrote:
At 1/22/2017 1:14:31 AM, SeventhProfessor wrote:
For some reason, I don't really buy a useless cop that the mafia has never even tried to kill.

What do you mean they haven't tried to kill me? I was bodyguarded and the bodyguard died.

But the only one to visit you was the bodyguard. Do you suggest the scum team is comprised of a janitor, roleblocker, ninja, AND redirector/framer? If you don't believe they are so powerful, we can come to one of two conclusions:

a. You and Matt are scumbuddies
b. Danielle is guilty

Matt could be guilty either way, which is why I'd rather lynch him today. If he's innocent, you are confirmed town, and we lynch Danielle. If he's guilty, you are likely scum, so we take all the rope in Texas and bring you to the tallest oak tree we can find. Reasonable, yes?

If Matt is innocent, why would I be conf!town?

Granted the size of the game and town power we have seen so far, it wouldn't surprise me to see a powerful mafia.

For the record, I'd be willing to support Matt's lynch.
Anonymous
1/22/2017 1:27:58 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/22/2017 1:26:51 AM, Yraelz wrote:
People should out their results and what not.

I'm glad we finally got Warren.

Why are you glad we finally got Warren, who flipped town?
SeventhProfessor
Posts: 6,576
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1/22/2017 1:29:55 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/22/2017 1:27:09 AM, ThinkBig wrote:
At 1/22/2017 1:25:13 AM, SeventhProfessor wrote:
At 1/22/2017 1:16:45 AM, ThinkBig wrote:
At 1/22/2017 1:14:31 AM, SeventhProfessor wrote:
For some reason, I don't really buy a useless cop that the mafia has never even tried to kill.

What do you mean they haven't tried to kill me? I was bodyguarded and the bodyguard died.

But the only one to visit you was the bodyguard. Do you suggest the scum team is comprised of a janitor, roleblocker, ninja, AND redirector/framer? If you don't believe they are so powerful, we can come to one of two conclusions:

a. You and Matt are scumbuddies
b. Danielle is guilty

Matt could be guilty either way, which is why I'd rather lynch him today. If he's innocent, you are confirmed town, and we lynch Danielle. If he's guilty, you are likely scum, so we take all the rope in Texas and bring you to the tallest oak tree we can find. Reasonable, yes?

If Matt is innocent, why would I be conf!town?

A miller necessitates a cop, do try to think before you type.
Stooge the Worst

#StandWithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

"bossy r u like 85 years old and have lost ur mind"
~mysteriouscrystals

"I've honestly never seen seventh post anything that wasn't completely idiotic in a trying-to-be-funny way."
~F-16

"SeventhProfessor is actually a surprisingly good poster."
~Devilry

https://docs.google.com...
Yraelz
Posts: 5,300
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1/22/2017 1:31:06 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 1/22/2017 1:27:58 AM, ThinkBig wrote:
Why are you glad we finally got Warren, who flipped town?

Frankly, I was just awfully blood thirsty for his death. It sucks abot the town part, but I feel a little satisfied.

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