Unemployment - 8.3%

At 8/3/2012 7:48:25 PM, OllerupMand wrote:
Wasn't it over 10% at one point?

At 8/3/2012 5:58:55 PM, JaxsonRaine wrote:
U3 ticked up. CBO projects 8.9% by the end of the year. If Obama loses, it will be because of the jobs situation. We're almost a full percentage above where he basically promised we would never even reach.

U6 unemployment is 15%. This is not a good situation for the country.

At 8/4/2012 3:13:51 AM, Double_R wrote:
Isn't that 8.9% projection based on the fact that people are starting to jump back into the work force now that there are actually jobs available? Seems like a strange reason for someone to lose an election.

At 8/4/2012 11:49:47 AM, RoyLatham wrote:

At 8/4/2012 3:13:51 AM, Double_R wrote:
Isn't that 8.9% projection based on the fact that people are starting to jump back into the work force now that there are actually jobs available? Seems like a strange reason for someone to lose an election.

Every month the labor force grows by immigration and by new grads entering the work force. They do seasonal adjustments to even out the stats. It takes at least 150,000 new jobs per month to keep unemployment level. For this year, average job creation has been about 150,000, hence unemployment has been stable.

Discouraged workers re-entering the labor market will make eventually make it difficult to drive unemployment down, but the economy hasn't improved enough for that to be a major factor. The pool of discouraged workers is enormous. I've seen numbers around 23%. That includes people who would come out of retirement if jobs were available.

I think that high unemployment is the "new normal" for the nanny state.

At 8/4/2012 11:49:47 AM, RoyLatham wrote:

At 8/4/2012 3:13:51 AM, Double_R wrote:
Isn't that 8.9% projection based on the fact that people are starting to jump back into the work force now that there are actually jobs available? Seems like a strange reason for someone to lose an election.

Every month the labor force grows by immigration and by new grads entering the work force. They do seasonal adjustments to even out the stats. It takes at least 150,000 new jobs per month to keep unemployment level. For this year, average job creation has been about 150,000, hence unemployment has been stable.

Discouraged workers re-entering the labor market will make eventually make it difficult to drive unemployment down, but the economy hasn't improved enough for that to be a major factor. The pool of discouraged workers is enormous. I've seen numbers around 23%. That includes people who would come out of retirement if jobs were available.

I think that high unemployment is the "new normal" for the nanny state.

At 8/6/2012 10:59:37 AM, slo1 wrote:

At 8/4/2012 11:49:47 AM, RoyLatham wrote:

At 8/4/2012 3:13:51 AM, Double_R wrote:
Isn't that 8.9% projection based on the fact that people are starting to jump back into the work force now that there are actually jobs available? Seems like a strange reason for someone to lose an election.

Every month the labor force grows by immigration and by new grads entering the work force. They do seasonal adjustments to even out the stats. It takes at least 150,000 new jobs per month to keep unemployment level. For this year, average job creation has been about 150,000, hence unemployment has been stable.

Discouraged workers re-entering the labor market will make eventually make it difficult to drive unemployment down, but the economy hasn't improved enough for that to be a major factor. The pool of discouraged workers is enormous. I've seen numbers around 23%. That includes people who would come out of retirement if jobs were available.

I think that high unemployment is the "new normal" for the nanny state.

It is dubious at best to imply the high unemployment is due to social programs.

This is a credit cycle bust and unfortunately our whole system relies on trickle down fixes, so the very institution that did not properly account for risk are the very ones that benefit the most from cheap credit and the devaluation of money.