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 Posts: 18 Add as FriendChallenge to a DebateSend a Message 3/14/2016 9:15:03 AMPosted: 3 years agoI get eight heads in a row using an unbiased coin. Now, before I flip this coin one more time, tell me - is the probability for me to get a head (pun not intended) still 0.5?
 Posts: 5,316 Add as FriendChallenge to a DebateSend a Message 3/14/2016 9:20:38 AMPosted: 3 years agoAt 3/14/2016 9:15:03 AM, FillFueler wrote:I get eight heads in a row using an unbiased coin. Now, before I flip this coin one more time, tell me - is the probability for me to get a head (pun not intended) still 0.5?1st postOf course it is.
 Posts: 5,316 Add as FriendChallenge to a DebateSend a Message 3/14/2016 9:29:14 AMPosted: 3 years agoAt 3/14/2016 9:20:38 AM, Deb-8-A-Bull wrote:At 3/14/2016 9:15:03 AM, FillFueler wrote:I get eight heads in a row using an unbiased coin. Now, before I flip this coin one more time, tell me - is the probability for me to get a head (pun not intended) still 0.5?1st postOf course it is.You coin flipping technique can come into play, so it not the best way to look at it.
 Posts: 18 Add as FriendChallenge to a DebateSend a Message 3/14/2016 9:31:16 AMPosted: 3 years agoAt 3/14/2016 9:20:38 AM, Deb-8-A-Bull wrote:At 3/14/2016 9:15:03 AM, FillFueler wrote:I get eight heads in a row using an unbiased coin. Now, before I flip this coin one more time, tell me - is the probability for me to get a head (pun not intended) still 0.5?1st postOf course it is.Practically it is not. Hence the paradox.
 Posts: 5,316 Add as FriendChallenge to a DebateSend a Message 3/14/2016 9:33:45 AMPosted: 3 years agoAt 3/14/2016 9:31:16 AM, FillFueler wrote:At 3/14/2016 9:20:38 AM, Deb-8-A-Bull wrote:At 3/14/2016 9:15:03 AM, FillFueler wrote:I get eight heads in a row using an unbiased coin. Now, before I flip this coin one more time, tell me - is the probability for me to get a head (pun not intended) still 0.5?1st postOf course it is.Practically it is not. Hence the paradox.Don't be silly
 Posts: 6,033 Add as FriendChallenge to a DebateSend a Message 3/14/2016 9:34:32 AMPosted: 3 years agoAt 3/14/2016 9:15:03 AM, FillFueler wrote:Is the probability for me to get a head still 0.5?Welcome, FF.If the result of each coin toss is independent, then by definition the coin has no memory. Your chance of another head remains 0.5.You can test this empirically. Set out (say) sixteen coins in a line, flip each and separate the coins into a 'Heads' pile and a 'Tails' pile. Flip again, and separate each pile into two more piles, so that you now have four piles: H-H, H-T, T-H, T-H.Now see what happens to the coins in each pile when you flip a third time.
 Posts: 18 Add as FriendChallenge to a DebateSend a Message 3/14/2016 2:25:32 PMPosted: 3 years ago#7 EDIT :-:EXPERIMENTTake an unbiased coin. First, get 3 tails and NOW note whether or not the probability of getting a head or tail is still half the fourth time. Anyone can do this. As long as I am getting more heads than tails the fourth time after observing 3 tails , there is a problem.Note the observation you get fourth time. The only requirement for this experiment is the successful observation of head or tail 3 times in a row each time before flipping the coin fourth time.
 Posts: 430 Add as FriendChallenge to a DebateSend a Message 3/14/2016 2:47:57 PMPosted: 3 years agoYou are talking probability vs statistics. PROBABILITY that you will get heads is always the same.Best way to put it right there. +1
 Posts: 6,033 Add as FriendChallenge to a DebateSend a Message 3/14/2016 4:50:52 PMPosted: 3 years agoAt 3/14/2016 2:12:36 PM, FillFueler wrote:At 3/14/2016 9:34:32 AM, RuvDraba wrote:If the result of each coin toss is independent, then by definition the coin has no memory. Your chance of another head remains 0.5.You can test this empirically. Set out (say) sixteen coins in a line, flip each and separate the coins into a 'Heads' pile and a 'Tails' pile. Flip again, and separate each pile into two more piles, so that you now have four piles: H-H, H-T, T-H, T-H.Toss a coin. First, get (say) 3 tails and NOW note whether or not the probability of getting a head or tail is still half. Anyone can do this. As long as I am getting more heads than tails ( after observing 3 tails) , there is a problem.Do you believe that the experiment I proposed is substantially different to the experiment you proposed?For example, if I start with 32 coins, toss them, and begin creating piles reflecting the outcomes, then after three tosses per coin, we will likely have eight outcomes piles:HHH HHT HTH HTT THH THT TTH TTTSince there are eight ordered outcomes, all equally likely, we should have around four coins in each pile.Now, let's keep only the HHH pile with its four or so coins. Toss them each again. That will repeat your HHH experiment approximately four times, yes?What do you predict will happen to that pile?
 Posts: 5,316 Add as FriendChallenge to a DebateSend a Message 3/14/2016 5:40:32 PMPosted: 3 years agoCoin not dice I mean
 Posts: 5,316 Add as FriendChallenge to a DebateSend a Message 3/14/2016 5:45:46 PMPosted: 3 years agoTBR can someone flip a coin for you 50/50.
 Posts: 9,992 Add as FriendChallenge to a DebateSend a Message 3/14/2016 5:53:58 PMPosted: 3 years agoOK TBR LISTEN -Try to understand. We already have 3 tails in a row. Now why is the probability of getting a head is > 0.5Try #8 yourself. IOK. Lets do it this way. What is the probability of getting 4 heads in a row.(.5) * (.5) * (.5) * (.5) = .0625Each toss, 1 - 4, had only two potential outcomes (H or T). That is .5. So, you asked "what is the chance flip 4 will be heads". The answer is 50/50.That work for you?
 Posts: 18 Add as FriendChallenge to a DebateSend a Message 3/14/2016 6:03:43 PMPosted: 3 years agoAt 3/14/2016 4:50:52 PM, RuvDraba wrote:At 3/14/2016 2:12:36 PM, FillFueler wrote:At 3/14/2016 9:34:32 AM, RuvDraba wrote:If the result of each coin toss is independent, then by definition the coin has no memory. Your chance of another head remains 0.5.You can test this empirically. Set out (say) sixteen coins in a line, flip each and separate the coins into a 'Heads' pile and a 'Tails' pile. Flip again, and separate each pile into two more piles, so that you now have four piles: H-H, H-T, T-H, T-H.Toss a coin. First, get (say) 3 tails and NOW note whether or not the probability of getting a head or tail is still half. Anyone can do this. As long as I am getting more heads than tails ( after observing 3 tails) , there is a problem.Do you believe that the experiment I proposed is substantially different to the experiment you proposed?For example, if I start with 32 coins, toss them, and begin creating piles reflecting the outcomes, then after three tosses per coin, we will likely have eight outcomes piles:HHH HHT HTH HTT THH THT TTH TTTSince there are eight ordered outcomes, all equally likely, we should have around four coins in each pile.Now, let's keep only the HHH pile with its four or so coins. Toss them each again. That will repeat your HHH experiment approximately four times, yes?What do you predict will happen to that pile?there is <50% chance that those coins are going to make it in the HHHH pile.