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Philosophers Mafia DP5

The-Voice-of-Truth
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4/9/2017 9:37:28 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
LYNCHED LAST DP

Uther: You are Arthur Schopenhauer, Vanilla. You have no role. You win with the Town.

DIED IN THE NIGHT

Unstob: You are Edmund Husserl, the Tracker. Each night, you may visit any player. You will learn who that player visited. You win with the town.

GRAVEYARD

Wylted (Mafia)
Mhar (Town)
Warren (Mafia)
Sarcastic/Gold (Town)
Chaos (Town)
Subutai (Town)
Uther (Town)
Unstob (Town)

LIVING PLAYERS

1. Danielle/Magic
2. Kesc
3. Lucky
4. YYW
5. Anoid
6. Geo

With 6 players alive, it takes 4 votes to lynch.
The DP ends at 6 PM EST on 4/12/17
"If anyone wants to engage in casual anti-Semitism, then whatever." ~Max

Vaarka swung his sword at the mod. However, since I am now incorporeal, he ends up accidentally striking the entire American landmass (It's a REALLY bastard sword), destroying both continents. Spiders are now at 50% of capacity."
The-Voice-of-Truth
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4/9/2017 9:43:51 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
Due to a site error, Lucky cannot log in. Shab is the spokesperson for Lucky. He will be C/Ping what Lucky has to say.
"If anyone wants to engage in casual anti-Semitism, then whatever." ~Max

Vaarka swung his sword at the mod. However, since I am now incorporeal, he ends up accidentally striking the entire American landmass (It's a REALLY bastard sword), destroying both continents. Spiders are now at 50% of capacity."
ShabShoral
Posts: 4,199
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4/9/2017 9:55:32 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
This 503 error is pissing me off, I haven't been able to log in to DDO for about a week.

With 6 players left we are best off no-lynching. Assuming two mafia, a no lynch puts us at 3v2 next DP which gives us better odds and more information than lynching this DP. With that said, Anoid is probably mafia out of process of elimination. Geo is pretty much confirmed as cop, I can only see him being left alive this long because there is a Godfather. Probably among the players that have not been declared as investigated yet because if the Godfather was already investigated then the cop can only be harmful, but if you are going to leave him alive it makes sense to be seeking confirmation.

Although, there's a tracker and there being a ninja told mafia that there was either a tracker or a watcher so maybe they assumed watcher and were scared. In fact, that's probably the case given that warren claimed watcher. Khaos was probably right about mafia looking for a counterclaim since warren was dead anyway.

I still stand by my claim that YYW is never mafia with Warren and Wylted because he doesn't let them claim what they claimed. Mafia is then between Anoid and either Dani or Kes. I'd rather make that distinction next DP. After the NK we can all role claim and we'll have plenty of info to decide what to do.

VTNL
: At 10/2/2017 3:00:43 AM, YYW wrote:
: Bossy: You are Regina.

:Inferno wrote:
:You sound rather gay.

-- And the light shineth in darkness; and the darkness comprehended it not.

"I believe that my powers of mind are surely such that I would have become in a
certain sense a resolver of all problems. I do not believe that I could have remained in
error anywhere for long. I believe that I would have earned the name of Redeemer,
because I had the nature of a Redeemer. "
The-Voice-of-Truth
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4/9/2017 10:08:45 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
Official Vote Count

VTNL (1/4) - Lucky
"If anyone wants to engage in casual anti-Semitism, then whatever." ~Max

Vaarka swung his sword at the mod. However, since I am now incorporeal, he ends up accidentally striking the entire American landmass (It's a REALLY bastard sword), destroying both continents. Spiders are now at 50% of capacity."
LikeMagic
Posts: 2,190
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4/10/2017 1:10:50 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/9/2017 9:55:32 PM, ShabShoral wrote:
This 503 error is pissing me off, I haven't been able to log in to DDO for about a week.

With 6 players left we are best off no-lynching. Assuming two mafia, a no lynch puts us at 3v2 next DP which gives us better odds and more information than lynching this DP. With that said, Anoid is probably mafia out of process of elimination. Geo is pretty much confirmed as cop, I can only see him being left alive this long because there is a Godfather. Probably among the players that have not been declared as investigated yet because if the Godfather was already investigated then the cop can only be harmful, but if you are going to leave him alive it makes sense to be seeking confirmation.

Although, there's a tracker and there being a ninja told mafia that there was either a tracker or a watcher so maybe they assumed watcher and were scared. In fact, that's probably the case given that warren claimed watcher. Khaos was probably right about mafia looking for a counterclaim since warren was dead anyway.

I still stand by my claim that YYW is never mafia with Warren and Wylted because he doesn't let them claim what they claimed. Mafia is then between Anoid and either Dani or Kes. I'd rather make that distinction next DP. After the NK we can all role claim and we'll have plenty of info to decide what to do.

VTNL

I don't see how it is beneficial to waste a dayphase. Assuming we accept that geo is the cop, which has to be the case in light of chaos flipping Miller, then I think Anoid/Tree is mafia and the GF. I note that Anoid kept using the excuse that he had to review the dayphase before he was willing to contribute substantively, but even after doing so has failed to really contribute. I will do an ISO on his/tree's posts, but regardless I am not willing to waste a dayphase. Last dayphase was already enough of a waste for the town.
Anoid
Posts: 170
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4/10/2017 1:29:44 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
I believe that it is either Geo or Kescarte that is scum. I don't believe that VoT would have both a cop and JOAT in the same game along with a miller. Not to mention they both claimed their roles early and are both still alive after 4 nights, especially considering that some of the night kills committed are unable to be guessed as why they happened. I finished my ISO on Kescarte and will post my arguments for him being town and being mafia. After posting this, I will ISO Geo and see what I can find on him.

Arguments for Town:

-Wylted cc'd his JOAT claim, which I don't see him doing if Kescarte is truly mafia. However, it was considered a dumb play by Wylted, but it could have been a lot deeper than what we thought by making it look like Kescarte was town and keep the target off of him permanently.
-Kescarte has used all of the possibilities of his role, making him consistent. However, he could easily have lied, as all of his claims are unable to be proven other than his word.

Argument for Mafia
-He claimed his role when asked about his character. This is not strong evidence, as he already claimed his character and probably got confused with what was being asked of him, knowing he already claimed.
-On DP2, he claimed he jailkeeped YYW, which was a bad decision, considering there were other possibilities that were higher on the target list for NKs, like Mharman for example.
-When confronted why he used other abilities instead of his investigating ability, he would state that he had no leads when there were plenty. Chaos was an obvious one to investigate, especially since he claimed miller and that would've been the time to check to see if he was telling the truth. His reasoning for bulletproof made sense, but this leads into my final point.
-As said in my intro paragraph, he has not been targeted once. Correct me if I'm wrong, but if someone uses bulletproof, it means that the mafia kill no one that night, right? However, the mafia have killed someone every night, meaning Kescarte has not been the mafia's target once, even after claiming he already used his bulletproof and his only other ability was to investigate someone. If I remember correctly, why would the mafia disregard a PR and NK others who have not role claimed?

This is what I'm thinking on Kescarte and I'd love to hear what others think about this as well. I'm also going to do an ISO on Geo, so expect something on him soon.
Anoid
Posts: 170
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4/10/2017 1:33:50 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/10/2017 1:10:50 AM, LikeMagic wrote:
I don't see how it is beneficial to waste a dayphase. Assuming we accept that geo is the cop, which has to be the case in light of chaos flipping Miller, then I think Anoid/Tree is mafia and the GF. I note that Anoid kept using the excuse that he had to review the dayphase before he was willing to contribute substantively, but even after doing so has failed to really contribute. I will do an ISO on his/tree's posts, but regardless I am not willing to waste a dayphase. Last dayphase was already enough of a waste for the town.

I really was reading through the DPs, which took a lot longer than what I originally expected. However, after reading them, I did give my thoughts on the Chaos lynch, which I thought would be a mistake. After that, I did post little, which I apologize for. I should've contributed a little bit more than what I did at that point of time.
ShabShoral
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4/10/2017 1:42:27 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/10/2017 1:10:50 AM, LikeMagic wrote:
At 4/9/2017 9:55:32 PM, ShabShoral wrote:
This 503 error is pissing me off, I haven't been able to log in to DDO for about a week.

With 6 players left we are best off no-lynching. Assuming two mafia, a no lynch puts us at 3v2 next DP which gives us better odds and more information than lynching this DP. With that said, Anoid is probably mafia out of process of elimination. Geo is pretty much confirmed as cop, I can only see him being left alive this long because there is a Godfather. Probably among the players that have not been declared as investigated yet because if the Godfather was already investigated then the cop can only be harmful, but if you are going to leave him alive it makes sense to be seeking confirmation.

Although, there's a tracker and there being a ninja told mafia that there was either a tracker or a watcher so maybe they assumed watcher and were scared. In fact, that's probably the case given that warren claimed watcher. Khaos was probably right about mafia looking for a counterclaim since warren was dead anyway.

I still stand by my claim that YYW is never mafia with Warren and Wylted because he doesn't let them claim what they claimed. Mafia is then between Anoid and either Dani or Kes. I'd rather make that distinction next DP. After the NK we can all role claim and we'll have plenty of info to decide what to do.

VTNL

I don't see how it is beneficial to waste a dayphase. Assuming we accept that geo is the cop, which has to be the case in light of chaos flipping Miller, then I think Anoid/Tree is mafia and the GF. I note that Anoid kept using the excuse that he had to review the dayphase before he was willing to contribute substantively, but even after doing so has failed to really contribute. I will do an ISO on his/tree's posts, but regardless I am not willing to waste a dayphase. Last dayphase was already enough of a waste for the town.

It's not about wasting a DP. I agree with Anoid being clearly one of the two remaining scum, simply by process of elimination. However, with 6 players left, we know that there are not 3 mafia members alive. If we mislynch, we lose. My instinct is that Geo is dead this DP, so we won't get any more cop results, but at the very least we maximize our information. At the point that we are 3v2 it becomes maximally beneficial to mass role claim and to analyze the likelihood of each claim. We will have more information by no lynching this DP and making our lynch decision next DP than we will by lynching this DP. Statistics says we no lynch this DP and figure the game our next DP.
: At 10/2/2017 3:00:43 AM, YYW wrote:
: Bossy: You are Regina.

:Inferno wrote:
:You sound rather gay.

-- And the light shineth in darkness; and the darkness comprehended it not.

"I believe that my powers of mind are surely such that I would have become in a
certain sense a resolver of all problems. I do not believe that I could have remained in
error anywhere for long. I believe that I would have earned the name of Redeemer,
because I had the nature of a Redeemer. "
LikeMagic
Posts: 2,190
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4/10/2017 1:50:17 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/10/2017 1:42:27 AM, ShabShoral wrote:


It's not about wasting a DP. I agree with Anoid being clearly one of the two remaining scum, simply by process of elimination. However, with 6 players left, we know that there are not 3 mafia members alive. If we mislynch, we lose. My instinct is that Geo is dead this DP, so we won't get any more cop results, but at the very least we maximize our information. At the point that we are 3v2 it becomes maximally beneficial to mass role claim and to analyze the likelihood of each claim. We will have more information by no lynching this DP and making our lynch decision next DP than we will by lynching this DP. Statistics says we no lynch this DP and figure the game our next DP.

I believe everyone remaining has character and role claimed, with the exception of maybe your role claim. I think taking our time and getting info is beneficial, but we can still do that and lynch Anoid. The strategies are not mutually exclusive as far as I can tell.
LikeMagic
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4/10/2017 2:14:56 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
I finished the ISO on Anoid, which was super easy given the inactivity.

In DP1 between posts 129 and 135, he made 4 posts where he went from calling Mharman contrived, to telling Mharman not to worry about his mistake and to have fun, to buddying with Wylted to suggest Mharman could be scum. At post 136 he did a weird soft claim. He posted two more times, both posts lacking substance, but stopped posting by 146. The DP ended at 585.

In DP2, tree did not post and was replaced by Anoid at 277. Anoid did not post (in comparison to Goldfrye who replaced in and at least posted though, with minimal substance). The DP ended at 364.

In DP3 geo copped Anoid town at post 3. Anoid the character claimed at 31 and then posted a couple times about needing to read the prior day phases. At 223 Anoid reported having finished reading the day phases, but failed to post any analysis or substance. He did express reluctance to voting chaos without more information, but ultimately joined the wagon at 270. Anoid's last post DP3 I find weird and contrived. Namely, he posted:

My character is Emil Cioran and my message said that my role was vanilla. I don't know how all this fits in since I'm still new, but I hope you can figure it out.

One post was made DP4 again apologizing and saying he needed to read prior day phases.

While contribution was limited, Tree's early actions read scum as they read as mafia trying to appear as if they are contributing, without offering much in the way of contribution. The soft claim was also sketch.

The inactivity by Anoid in DP's 2, 3, and 4 reads as mafia being reluctant in light of the shitty position the Mafia team was in at the time when Amoid replaced in. In fact Anoid advised of having finally read the prior days at post 223 of DP3, but failed to post anything of substance until the post this DP about Kesc. Further, the vanilla claim is common for GF.

I think Anoid should be the lynch this DP. Though I am waiting to vote until we get more info., as suggested by Lucky. Last DP ended far too prematurely, my vote was intended to force a full claim as I believe was the intent of others, and yet the DP ended in less than 24 hours. I want to avoid that this time.
ShabShoral
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4/10/2017 2:18:51 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/10/2017 1:50:17 AM, LikeMagic wrote:
At 4/10/2017 1:42:27 AM, ShabShoral wrote:


It's not about wasting a DP. I agree with Anoid being clearly one of the two remaining scum, simply by process of elimination. However, with 6 players left, we know that there are not 3 mafia members alive. If we mislynch, we lose. My instinct is that Geo is dead this DP, so we won't get any more cop results, but at the very least we maximize our information. At the point that we are 3v2 it becomes maximally beneficial to mass role claim and to analyze the likelihood of each claim. We will have more information by no lynching this DP and making our lynch decision next DP than we will by lynching this DP. Statistics says we no lynch this DP and figure the game our next DP.


I believe everyone remaining has character and role claimed, with the exception of maybe your role claim. I think taking our time and getting info is beneficial, but we can still do that and lynch Anoid. The strategies are not mutually exclusive as far as I can tell.

Is there an updated claims list? I'm missing a lot of claims then. I don't know what you, YYW, or Anoid have claimed. Although I kinda remember Dani hinting at vanilla early on. She may have made a statement that all existentialists are vanilla. Did you guys claim an existentialist?
: At 10/2/2017 3:00:43 AM, YYW wrote:
: Bossy: You are Regina.

:Inferno wrote:
:You sound rather gay.

-- And the light shineth in darkness; and the darkness comprehended it not.

"I believe that my powers of mind are surely such that I would have become in a
certain sense a resolver of all problems. I do not believe that I could have remained in
error anywhere for long. I believe that I would have earned the name of Redeemer,
because I had the nature of a Redeemer. "
ShabShoral
Posts: 4,199
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4/10/2017 2:19:26 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/10/2017 1:29:44 AM, Anoid wrote:
I believe that it is either Geo or Kescarte that is scum. I don't believe that VoT would have both a cop and JOAT in the same game along with a miller. Not to mention they both claimed their roles early and are both still alive after 4 nights, especially considering that some of the night kills committed are unable to be guessed as why they happened. I finished my ISO on Kescarte and will post my arguments for him being town and being mafia. After posting this, I will ISO Geo and see what I can find on him.

Arguments for Town:

-Wylted cc'd his JOAT claim, which I don't see him doing if Kescarte is truly mafia. However, it was considered a dumb play by Wylted, but it could have been a lot deeper than what we thought by making it look like Kescarte was town and keep the target off of him permanently.
-Kescarte has used all of the possibilities of his role, making him consistent. However, he could easily have lied, as all of his claims are unable to be proven other than his word.

Argument for Mafia
-He claimed his role when asked about his character. This is not strong evidence, as he already claimed his character and probably got confused with what was being asked of him, knowing he already claimed.
-On DP2, he claimed he jailkeeped YYW, which was a bad decision, considering there were other possibilities that were higher on the target list for NKs, like Mharman for example.
-When confronted why he used other abilities instead of his investigating ability, he would state that he had no leads when there were plenty. Chaos was an obvious one to investigate, especially since he claimed miller and that would've been the time to check to see if he was telling the truth. His reasoning for bulletproof made sense, but this leads into my final point.
-As said in my intro paragraph, he has not been targeted once. Correct me if I'm wrong, but if someone uses bulletproof, it means that the mafia kill no one that night, right? However, the mafia have killed someone every night, meaning Kescarte has not been the mafia's target once, even after claiming he already used his bulletproof and his only other ability was to investigate someone. If I remember correctly, why would the mafia disregard a PR and NK others who have not role claimed?

This is what I'm thinking on Kescarte and I'd love to hear what others think about this as well. I'm also going to do an ISO on Geo, so expect something on him soon.

A lot of the mafia's night kills seem to be dictated by paranoia of a watcher. They had a ninja that died early. Tracker/ninja is honestly a lackluster interaction, and most people assume watcher when there is a ninja. They were probably too afraid to NK any productive townies or powerroles.
: At 10/2/2017 3:00:43 AM, YYW wrote:
: Bossy: You are Regina.

:Inferno wrote:
:You sound rather gay.

-- And the light shineth in darkness; and the darkness comprehended it not.

"I believe that my powers of mind are surely such that I would have become in a
certain sense a resolver of all problems. I do not believe that I could have remained in
error anywhere for long. I believe that I would have earned the name of Redeemer,
because I had the nature of a Redeemer. "
Anoid
Posts: 170
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4/10/2017 2:20:56 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
Geo
Arguments for Town:
-No one cc'd the role of cop, but it's possible it's just a role that was not used.
-Claimed me town, which I know to be true, but means nothing since mafia know who the town are and can easily lie about this.

Arguments for Mafia:
-Not strong, but defended wylted's character claim. Easily could be town trying to figure out if the claim really is real or not.
-Claimed cop DP2 at post #119. This is weird considering he already posted, but he claims he just got home. Even then, wouldn't the first post to make as cop would to be to out a guilty if that is what was found out, not stating something else? This was also posted after his name was thrown around a little.
-He then claims he's a two-shot cop after investigating me (Tree). This seems suspicious, as if you really only have two-shots, why would you waste the last one on me (Tree), an inactive, when others were being suspected, like Chaos.
-And, once again, he's still alive. He claimed DP2, so he was predicted to be killed that night. However, Gold was killed that night, which I can only guess was to make it look like YYW killed him as mafia since he hates Gold. This is a clear waste, as no one in this game would seriously fall for that.

These are my thoughts on both Kescarte and Geo. As I stated earlier, I would like to hear others' thoughts on these, as I'm debating on which one I think is more likely scum.
Anoid
Posts: 170
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4/10/2017 2:25:43 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/10/2017 2:19:26 AM, ShabShoral wrote:
A lot of the mafia's night kills seem to be dictated by paranoia of a watcher. They had a ninja that died early. Tracker/ninja is honestly a lackluster interaction, and most people assume watcher when there is a ninja. They were probably too afraid to NK any productive townies or powerroles.

That's a really good point. I didn't factor in the watcher paranoia.
LikeMagic
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4/10/2017 2:32:53 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/10/2017 2:18:51 AM, ShabShoral wrote:

Is there an updated claims list? I'm missing a lot of claims then. I don't know what you, YYW, or Anoid have claimed. Although I kinda remember Dani hinting at vanilla early on. She may have made a statement that all existentialists are vanilla. Did you guys claim an existentialist?

Danielle outed our role claim at post 138 DP3. We then repeated it a few times noting it as grounds for our suspicion of YYW or Chaos, as we found it improbable that there'd be three vanillas (us, sarcastic, and YYW) and Chaos as a miller. Anoid then claimed vanilla at post 273 at the end of dayphase 3.

As far as the other claims, Kescarte claimed JOAT in DP1 I believe, YYW claimed vanilla in DP1, and Geo claimed cop.

So what's your role?
Anoid
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4/10/2017 2:35:34 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/10/2017 2:14:56 AM, LikeMagic wrote:
I finished the ISO on Anoid, which was super easy given the inactivity.

In DP1 between posts 129 and 135, he made 4 posts where he went from calling Mharman contrived, to telling Mharman not to worry about his mistake and to have fun, to buddying with Wylted to suggest Mharman could be scum. At post 136 he did a weird soft claim. He posted two more times, both posts lacking substance, but stopped posting by 146. The DP ended at 585.

In DP2, tree did not post and was replaced by Anoid at 277. Anoid did not post (in comparison to Goldfrye who replaced in and at least posted though, with minimal substance). The DP ended at 364.

In DP3 geo copped Anoid town at post 3. Anoid the character claimed at 31 and then posted a couple times about needing to read the prior day phases. At 223 Anoid reported having finished reading the day phases, but failed to post any analysis or substance. He did express reluctance to voting chaos without more information, but ultimately joined the wagon at 270. Anoid's last post DP3 I find weird and contrived. Namely, he posted:

My character is Emil Cioran and my message said that my role was vanilla. I don't know how all this fits in since I'm still new, but I hope you can figure it out.

One post was made DP4 again apologizing and saying he needed to read prior day phases.

While contribution was limited, Tree's early actions read scum as they read as mafia trying to appear as if they are contributing, without offering much in the way of contribution. The soft claim was also sketch.

The inactivity by Anoid in DP's 2, 3, and 4 reads as mafia being reluctant in light of the shitty position the Mafia team was in at the time when Amoid replaced in. In fact Anoid advised of having finally read the prior days at post 223 of DP3, but failed to post anything of substance until the post this DP about Kesc. Further, the vanilla claim is common for GF.

I think Anoid should be the lynch this DP. Though I am waiting to vote until we get more info., as suggested by Lucky. Last DP ended far too prematurely, my vote was intended to force a full claim as I believe was the intent of others, and yet the DP ended in less than 24 hours. I want to avoid that this time.

What I posted on reluctance to vote Chaos, I thought at the time, I believed to be an analysis. I went back and read it and saw that I posted no real analysis. It was just me saying I had a gut feeling he was not mafia. That was a mistake on my part.

Also, I don't understand what you find weird about that one statement, since that was posted in response to your hydra. If you could explain why you found that weird, that would be helpful.
LikeMagic
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4/10/2017 2:40:57 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/10/2017 2:35:34 AM, Anoid wrote:


Also, I don't understand what you find weird about that one statement, since that was posted in response to your hydra. If you could explain why you found that weird, that would be helpful.

The disclaimer was weird. At that point you had plenty of time to read all DPs, and had acknowledged doing so at Post 223. Saying you were new just looks like another attempt for you to excuse your lack of contributing and it just generally felt contrived.
Anoid
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4/10/2017 2:45:57 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/10/2017 2:40:57 AM, LikeMagic wrote:
The disclaimer was weird. At that point you had plenty of time to read all DPs, and had acknowledged doing so at Post 223. Saying you were new just looks like another attempt for you to excuse your lack of contributing and it just generally felt contrived.

It wasn't an excuse for a lack of contributing, but I was nervous that I would be called scum for saying I was vanilla when Dani was already stating that there were too many vanillas.
Kescarte_DeJudica
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4/10/2017 5:41:53 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
Okay, so I know at least two people are not scum: YYW and yours truly. This makes it a bit easier, but not much.

I'm currently leaning on Lucky for lynch. The fact that he would call for a VNTL right now is somewhat unsurprising.

VTL Lucky
"Never thought I'd be sitting up at 9:20 at night discussing with a random stranger how to best acquire a goat carcass." ~Tree of Death

==================================================================

Check out my gaming channel if you are into that sort of thing:

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LikeMagic
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4/10/2017 9:36:01 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/10/2017 4:45:05 PM, YYW wrote:
At 4/10/2017 2:32:53 AM, LikeMagic wrote:

Wanna lynch Lucky?

I kind of do. The vtnl is super sketch. I feel pretty certain that Anoid is scum and GF and I'm thinking Kescarte or Lucky as the counterpart. Leaning towards lucky. My work day has been bonkers and I'm on my way to a board meeting now. I'll ISO lucky when I get home tonight and decide then. But I'm still pretty furious with all the inactivity. It makes reads so hard. This has not been a great first exposure to this game.
Lucky_Luciano
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4/11/2017 12:16:16 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
I can finally fvcking log in without a 500 error.
"Age is not important" - Airmax 2014
"Australia... is that a place?" - Airmax 2014
Lucky_Luciano
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4/11/2017 12:20:29 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
Can somebody explain what significant meta-shift happened that made VTNLing in this situation sketchy? We know that there are not 3 mafia remaining because the game would be over. The game is either 4v2 or 5v1 at this point. In the case that the game is 4v2, a mislynch loses the game. Therefore, if we are to assume it's 4v2, we should no lynch such that the game becomes 3v2 and we have a better chance of successfully lynching. If the game is 5v1 and we no lynch, it becomes 4v1 in which case we have 2 lynches, 1 at 4v1 and 1 at 2v1. If the game is 5v1 and we lynch, it becomes 3v1 in which case we still only have 1 more lynch. No matter how many mafia are left, we do not lose a lynch by no lynching, however we increase our chances of hitting mafia by reducing the available player pool. What's so hard to understand about this?
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"Australia... is that a place?" - Airmax 2014
Lucky_Luciano
Posts: 4,735
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4/11/2017 12:22:24 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/10/2017 5:41:53 AM, Kescarte_DeJudica wrote:
Okay, so I know at least two people are not scum: YYW and yours truly. This makes it a bit easier, but not much.

I'm currently leaning on Lucky for lynch. The fact that he would call for a VNTL right now is somewhat unsurprising.

VTL Lucky

Unsurprising in what sense? Elaborate please.
"Age is not important" - Airmax 2014
"Australia... is that a place?" - Airmax 2014
Lucky_Luciano
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4/11/2017 12:28:02 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/10/2017 9:36:01 PM, LikeMagic wrote:
Where has your better half been this dp?
"Age is not important" - Airmax 2014
"Australia... is that a place?" - Airmax 2014
Mharman
Posts: 4,924
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4/11/2017 1:48:51 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/11/2017 12:28:02 AM, Lucky_Luciano wrote:
At 4/10/2017 9:36:01 PM, LikeMagic wrote:
Where has your better half been this dp?

Where has your innocence been?

(Undead post 'cause I needed to roast someone)
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"I didn't spend much time talking to Lannan, and I wish I had. He was a chill guy. Really kind, too. Not once did I ever see him get angry. Lannan and Anger were polar opposites, never coming in contact." -Mharman
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Anoid
Posts: 170
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4/11/2017 2:01:17 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
I gotta be with lucky on this one. There is nothing wrong with NL. It lowers the player pool and lowers the possibility of a ML. I'm kinda leaning that there are 3 mafia due to a post from warren that suggested a possibility of 3, but I think it is safe to assume there is 4, and that there is two left.
Lucky_Luciano
Posts: 4,735
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4/11/2017 2:06:30 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/11/2017 1:48:51 AM, Mharman wrote:
At 4/11/2017 12:28:02 AM, Lucky_Luciano wrote:
At 4/10/2017 9:36:01 PM, LikeMagic wrote:
Where has your better half been this dp?

Where has your innocence been?

(Undead post 'cause I needed to roast someone)

I lost that to a total slut when I was 16. It was worth it.
"Age is not important" - Airmax 2014
"Australia... is that a place?" - Airmax 2014
YYW
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4/11/2017 2:59:48 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/11/2017 2:06:30 AM, Lucky_Luciano wrote:
At 4/11/2017 1:48:51 AM, Mharman wrote:
At 4/11/2017 12:28:02 AM, Lucky_Luciano wrote:
At 4/10/2017 9:36:01 PM, LikeMagic wrote:
Where has your better half been this dp?

Where has your innocence been?

(Undead post 'cause I needed to roast someone)

I lost that to a total slut when I was 16. It was worth it.

Talk to me about Kescarte.

Assume we VTNL, and the ratios get back to the point where we're in a better position.

What information would you have then that would make you more likely to lynch him then, than now?

Why should we not lynch him now?