Total Posts:186|Showing Posts:1-30|Last Page
Jump to topic:

Angels And Demons DP4

VelCrow
Posts: 1,509
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/21/2017 1:47:27 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
Simon Theodore was at the police station. As he was gazing at the stars on the hills the previous night, he had seen flashes of light coming from Cafe de Cesare and was contemplating going to the police. As he walks into the station...

Luther : It.. It burns!! Aaaaaahhh!!!
Cop1 : What in gods name??
Cop2 : Its only salt I swear!!

Shocked by what he saw, he turned and ran. As he ran towards the hill, his foot caught upon a root and he fell, head first onto a rock. He was found the next morning, dead from blood loss from the blow to his head.

Lynched in DP3 : TUF

You are town. You are Simon Theodore. You love the stars and have moved here to get far away from the city's light pollution and thus your are a stargazer.

The next day...
Another crowd gathers outside Connors & Connors Car Workshop. The policemen on site looks grim. Unlike the first two deaths, the crime scene at Connors & Connors was clean. But clean should be the last thing on your mind if you had seen the state Mr Connors was found in. Pieces of him missing in rectangular shapes. The two questions on the investigators mind is ; 1. What made those cuts in perfect shapes, and 2. Where is the mess of blood that should have been around him?

Died in the night : Warren

You are town. You are Max Connors and you are a mechanic. Last night you might have been bitten by a rat and thus you have set traps around your house to catch them. Therefore, you are The Trap.

Living Players
1. Chaos
2. Wylted
3. Forever
4. Anoid
5. Udel
6. Danielle
7. Bsh
8. LikeMagic/sui

This DP will last between 48 - 72 hours.
Lynch will not happen before 48 hours.
Lynch will only occur with full votes after 48 hours.
Plurality Lynching will be in effect if full votes aren't achieved after 72 hours.
Plurality Lynching will not consider votes that happened after 72 hours (even if mod has yet to confirm end of DP).
Forever23
Posts: 1,784
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/21/2017 1:51:12 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
I dreamt about Udel. My dream was bull sh!t. What happened was apparently I was walking in the park and a pig knocked me over and caused me too fall into sh!t. I then took a bath.
Troll Queen Of DDO

#BetOnThett
#StandWithBossy

Bet On How Long DDO Will Last Here:
http://www.debate.org...

I hate you <3
bsh1
Posts: 28,554
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/21/2017 2:46:42 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 7/21/2017 1:51:12 AM, Forever23 wrote:
I dreamt about Udel. My dream was bull sh!t. What happened was apparently I was walking in the park and a pig knocked me over and caused me too fall into sh!t. I then took a bath.

Did Vel describe the dream as a nightmare? Were you (your character) unsettled by the dream?
I'm a Bish.
bsh1
Posts: 28,554
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/21/2017 2:52:34 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
These are my reads as they stand right now. I plan to go back and review Khaos's activity to double check my reads, and I also plan to take a look at Anoid and Udel. Can someone tell me please why I should not scumread Khaos? I'd like a clear, concise counterargument to assess.

Dani is bumped into my null pile temporarily because of my impression of her play last DP, but I want to go back and review things for her too. Anything interesting happen in the night, if we feel that it is wise to out that kind of stuff? At this point, I think we could use the information if it's out there.

Scum

Khaos

Leaning Scum/FOS'd

Anoid
Udel

Null

Wylted
Dani

Town

Forever
LM/Sui
I'm a Bish.
LikeMagic
Posts: 2,190
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/21/2017 3:25:16 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
So town can be killed, not just angels. And the connection I thought existed between the town PMs doesn't appear to exist. Unless Velcrow left that part of the PMs out of the flip, in which case *slow clap* and *eye roll*
Wylted
Posts: 25,970
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/21/2017 3:31:57 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 7/21/2017 3:25:16 AM, LikeMagic wrote:
So town can be killed, not just angels. And the connection I thought existed between the town PMs doesn't appear to exist. Unless Velcrow left that part of the PMs out of the flip, in which case *slow clap* and *eye roll*

I was sincerely shocked to see a non angel die. This changes things.

Also VTL Anoid

Last one not in my town pool
Anoid
Posts: 170
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/21/2017 3:33:17 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
So if the demons can actually kill towns, why did they choose not to the last time? Doesn't make any sense. If given the option to kill, why skip out on it? Whatever tainting is, it must be pretty powerful for the mafia to skip killing a night.
LikeMagic
Posts: 2,190
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/21/2017 3:47:55 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 7/21/2017 3:31:57 AM, Wylted wrote:
At 7/21/2017 3:25:16 AM, LikeMagic wrote:
So town can be killed, not just angels. And the connection I thought existed between the town PMs doesn't appear to exist. Unless Velcrow left that part of the PMs out of the flip, in which case *slow clap* and *eye roll*

I was sincerely shocked to see a non angel die. This changes things.

Also VTL Anoid

Last one not in my town pool

The fact that we are on DP4 and still don't have a grasp on these basic mechanics is nonsense. This isn't even Mafia at this point. We can't even do real behavioral analysis because we don't have a handle on the basics to even know if people are being shady or engaging in scum slips. I will probably just wait until the 48 hours is up and cast my vote to whoever has the popular vote.
Wylted
Posts: 25,970
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/21/2017 3:57:50 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 7/21/2017 3:47:55 AM, LikeMagic wrote:
At 7/21/2017 3:31:57 AM, Wylted wrote:
At 7/21/2017 3:25:16 AM, LikeMagic wrote:
So town can be killed, not just angels. And the connection I thought existed between the town PMs doesn't appear to exist. Unless Velcrow left that part of the PMs out of the flip, in which case *slow clap* and *eye roll*

I was sincerely shocked to see a non angel die. This changes things.

Also VTL Anoid

Last one not in my town pool

The fact that we are on DP4 and still don't have a grasp on these basic mechanics is nonsense. This isn't even Mafia at this point. We can't even do real behavioral analysis because we don't have a handle on the basics to even know if people are being shady or engaging in scum slips. I will probably just wait until the 48 hours is up and cast my vote to whoever has the popular vote.

I absolutely agree. Yesterday I would have called you a crybaby but the fact warren is dead made me realize I have no clue what the mechanics of this game are. If we have a vig or something it would explain it. Otherwise I have no ideal what is happeing.
bsh1
Posts: 28,554
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/21/2017 3:58:18 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
It's interesting that a confirmed townie, like Forever, hasn't been killed. Mafia may fear protection regarding her, but I am not sure I'd buy that as a reason.

How many roles were activated by the start of DP2?
I'm a Bish.
Wylted
Posts: 25,970
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/21/2017 4:01:13 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 7/21/2017 3:58:18 AM, bsh1 wrote:
It's interesting that a confirmed townie, like Forever, hasn't been killed. Mafia may fear protection regarding her, but I am not sure I'd buy that as a reason.

How many roles were activated by the start of DP2?

Supposedly forever and Khaos.
Wylted
Posts: 25,970
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/21/2017 4:02:31 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 7/21/2017 1:51:12 AM, Forever23 wrote:
I dreamt about Udel. My dream was bull sh!t. What happened was apparently I was walking in the park and a pig knocked me over and caused me too fall into sh!t. I then took a bath.

WTF?
bsh1
Posts: 28,554
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/21/2017 4:04:45 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 7/21/2017 4:01:13 AM, Wylted wrote:
At 7/21/2017 3:58:18 AM, bsh1 wrote:
It's interesting that a confirmed townie, like Forever, hasn't been killed. Mafia may fear protection regarding her, but I am not sure I'd buy that as a reason.

How many roles were activated by the start of DP2?

Supposedly forever and Khaos.

Then there were no protective roles that could have acted NP2, correct? If so, why not NK Forever?

It seems doubly odd that no one died given that no protective roles were activated. We only had a dreamer and a sensor, after all. That is, of course, assuming that the angels don't have some kind of protective power.
I'm a Bish.
LikeMagic
Posts: 2,190
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/21/2017 4:08:07 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 7/21/2017 3:57:50 AM, Wylted wrote:
At 7/21/2017 3:47:55 AM, LikeMagic wrote:
At 7/21/2017 3:31:57 AM, Wylted wrote:
At 7/21/2017 3:25:16 AM, LikeMagic wrote:
So town can be killed, not just angels. And the connection I thought existed between the town PMs doesn't appear to exist. Unless Velcrow left that part of the PMs out of the flip, in which case *slow clap* and *eye roll*

I was sincerely shocked to see a non angel die. This changes things.

Also VTL Anoid

Last one not in my town pool

The fact that we are on DP4 and still don't have a grasp on these basic mechanics is nonsense. This isn't even Mafia at this point. We can't even do real behavioral analysis because we don't have a handle on the basics to even know if people are being shady or engaging in scum slips. I will probably just wait until the 48 hours is up and cast my vote to whoever has the popular vote.

I absolutely agree. Yesterday I would have called you a crybaby but the fact warren is dead made me realize I have no clue what the mechanics of this game are. If we have a vig or something it would explain it. Otherwise I have no ideal what is happeing.

Yea I realize it's come across like whining this whole time, but I felt like we were being screwed by these ridiculous mechanics from day one and that there was too much inconsistency and impropriety in the mod's actions to have a legit mafia game. I don't want to screw my team, but I am pretty over the guessing game feel like we've been having the same discussions about setup and wincon etc. for four day phases.
bsh1
Posts: 28,554
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/21/2017 4:11:46 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 7/21/2017 4:08:07 AM, LikeMagic wrote:
At 7/21/2017 3:57:50 AM, Wylted wrote:
I absolutely agree. Yesterday I would have called you a crybaby but the fact warren is dead made me realize I have no clue what the mechanics of this game are. If we have a vig or something it would explain it. Otherwise I have no ideal what is happeing.

Yea I realize it's come across like whining this whole time, but I felt like we were being screwed by these ridiculous mechanics from day one and that there was too much inconsistency and impropriety in the mod's actions to have a legit mafia game. I don't want to screw my team, but I am pretty over the guessing game feel like we've been having the same discussions about setup and wincon etc. for four day phases.

I totally sympathize, but can we not talk about this anymore? It's kinda turning into DP clutter, which makes reading/following the game a bit harder.
I'm a Bish.
Anoid
Posts: 170
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/21/2017 4:16:19 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
I'm going to reread the prior day phases to try and narrow down the last demon. I'm not going to do it tonight, as I'm to tired to think. I'll get this done tomorrow. Hopefully, we can end this this DP.
bsh1
Posts: 28,554
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/21/2017 4:26:37 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
I will be posting a series of thoughts on some of the people I said I would go back and reexamine. This is the first of those.

============

Khaos's scumread of TUF literally comes out of nowhere. I went back and referenced my notes and looked through the midsection of DP2, and basically found that Khaos began scumreading TUF around this time with the following posts (p. 22, DP2):

You seem to forget I town read six players, based on behavior. I have adjusted my read on TUF downward, based on behavior. But, sure, vote for me. Whatever.

My town read on him has dropped immensely, and the only point I recall seeing is his insulting Devilry, as he did you. To be honest, I haven't put too much thought into it, since I am fairly confident in my town reads, I'll just be lynching whatever wagon has the best chance among those. Assuming I survive the night, that is.

These are odd posts. Khaos never seems to preview any changing feelings on TUF before these posts. He says also that his townread on TUF has fallen "immensely," yet in the same breath says that he hasn't "put too much thought into it." How does this follow? An "immense" drop implies some thought, as it suggests a drastic change in reading.

Moreover, he essentially admits that he didn't read LM's case against TUF, which was the only substantive argument presented against TUF thus far in the game. If Khaos didn't review or "recall" much of LM's case, then where did his scumread come from?

This just seems so nonchalant, and drastic changes in reads don't seem like nonchalant things you just kind of casually mention in the DP. Those are things you really talk about. In the pages I examined, I did not see Khaos expand on his read of TUF, which is also a redflag. Khaos ended DP2 with his vote on TUF, even as town correctly lynched Subutai.
I'm a Bish.
bsh1
Posts: 28,554
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/21/2017 4:51:00 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
TUF scumread Khaos. I think we all remember that from last DP.
http://www.debate.org...

Khaos makes another interesting post, this time in DP3: http://www.debate.org...

TUF or Dani both seem like good grabs, but, alas, both seem to miss things, so it's hard to get a good read on them. I found TUF's rationale against me as oblivious, especially since he say it more in real time as he got caught up. Further, his vote on me this DP. Also, if Dani were scum, I'd think she would have just told Sub to claim angel to avoid getting lynched and hopefully the last angel CC'd (he did imply he was one, so I was really scared he was lynched). TUF wasn't really on at the same time, I don't think. Plus, Dani said (not sure if the intent was there) that she may lynch Sub. Of course, if she knew Sub was scum, her obstinence in not understanding why I valued Anoid when I did over Sub, and then TUF when I did was manufactured to lynch me, which, may or may not have been a horrible plan (depending if I has fully disclosed my visit or not at that time, but I think it was after).

That being said, I think Dani is more likely to be town than TUF. I'm still weighing if the hydra is more likely to be scum than Dani or not. Dani's town read on LM for the role claim was way too quick, especially given all the pushback she gave on everything else.

I'd say my lynch order is TUF, Dani, LM. But, I'd hop on any of these lynches.

Khaos's post spends almost twice as much time on Dani compared to TUF, yet more strongly scumreads TUF. I think most people were townreading Dani at this time, and that TUF was an easier lynch to secure. Moreover, just the language Khaos uses seems to suggest he was more skeptical about Dani than TUF; that's the vibe I get from most of this post. Why then was TUF Khaos's top lynch target?

What is also interesting about this is that Khaos's rationale for voting TUF is not especially compelling or logical, and basically boils down to OMGUS reasoning. In other words, it feels like a manufactured justification. Khaos, if Khaos is scum, clearly had an interest in getting rid of a player who scumread him, and would have voted against him in future DPs.
I'm a Bish.
bsh1
Posts: 28,554
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/21/2017 4:58:26 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
Khaos emphasizes several times that TUF is his top choice. And, unless I missed it, Khaos never really makes a case as to why (besides the OMGUS).

Then, about midway (maybe a bit more than midway) through DP3 Khaos makes the following post: http://www.debate.org...

I am 90% certain TUF or the hydra are scum.

Where does he get that level of confidence? Based on the previous post of his I quoted, it doesn't seem like Khaos should be "90%" confident of that read. His scumread on TUF just seems so contrived. First, it materializes from nowhere. Second, he gives obviously OMGUS reasoning for the read and buries that read in a discussion of a totally different player. Then, he says he is 90% certain that the mafia is between TUF and LM/Sui based on what? At various points that DP he suggested he was wary of Dani and Warren, and maybe others. So, why was he so confident? It just doesn't feel like it adds up.
I'm a Bish.
bsh1
Posts: 28,554
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/21/2017 5:27:32 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
And now let's briefly discuss how defensive Khaos has been this game. He hasn't displayed the kind of fist-shaking, over-indignant defensiveness some players do, but it's definitely there.

Here are some clearly defensive posts:

http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

Khaos also displays a different kind of defensiveness: hedging. Mafia knows it needs to push mislynches in order to win. That means that mafiosos must scumread and VTL town-aligned players, which obviously makes the mafioso look suspicious. Mafiosos tend, therefore, to hedge. They might say things like, "I scum read Cosmo, but he could still be town because of X, Y, Z." That gives mafia an excuse when their scumread turns out to be incorrect. Mafia wants to be able to explain away their incorrect reads without attracting suspicion to themselves. Here are some posts where Khaos hedges or attempts to undermine his own reads:

Also, I'll be holding back, similar to last game. And, similar to last game, my head won't be wholly in this game, so my reads may not be that good.
http://www.debate.org...

Oh, and to be fair, it's a bit hard to read behavior if scum is just as confused or annoyed as town is.....
http://www.debate.org...

If she is town, she has gone full tilt, and is probably just throwing the worst temper tantrum for not getting her way I've seen in a while. I want to scum read her so badly for this, but, truth be told, I wouldn't put it past her as town.
http://www.debate.org...
I'm a Bish.
bsh1
Posts: 28,554
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/21/2017 5:32:04 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
It also feels to me that Khaos has spent more time talking about game mechanics, arguing with Dani and LM/Sui, talking about how stupid the policy lynch idea was, and confusing us all about his own role than actually scumhunting. Maybe that's just me, but I doubt it.
I'm a Bish.
bsh1
Posts: 28,554
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/21/2017 5:35:28 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
I should also add that Khaos has multiple times argued that he's town-confirmed.

Angels enable roles to those eight townies, and me and Forever should be mod-confirmed.
http://www.debate.org...

Is Forever mod-confirmed? If so, how am I not?
http://www.debate.org...

This feels like another layer of defensiveness, and one that seems to be obviously reaching. I doubt a genuine townie would be worrying too much about whether they were town-confirmed or not, particularly when no major lynchwagon has coalesced around them.
I'm a Bish.
bsh1
Posts: 28,554
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/21/2017 5:36:06 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
Okay. That is my review/analysis of Khaos, who is still at the top of my scumpile. I will get to the other people I want to review tomorrow.
I'm a Bish.
bsh1
Posts: 28,554
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/21/2017 5:38:55 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 7/21/2017 4:08:07 AM, LikeMagic wrote:
Yea I realize it's come across like whining this whole time, but I felt like we were being screwed by these ridiculous mechanics from day one and that there was too much inconsistency and impropriety in the mod's actions to have a legit mafia game. I don't want to screw my team, but I am pretty over the guessing game feel like we've been having the same discussions about setup and wincon etc. for four day phases.

That's a weird choice of words for a townie. Townies don't often refer to town as their team, at least not in the same way that mafia talk about the scum team. Who has ever head of the "town team?"
I'm a Bish.
Wylted
Posts: 25,970
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/21/2017 6:25:19 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 7/21/2017 5:45:14 AM, bsh1 wrote:
Is anyone else online, or am I talking to myself for now?

Just got back online for a moment now
Sui_Generis
Posts: 4,650
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/21/2017 7:10:13 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 7/21/2017 4:11:46 AM, bsh1 wrote:
DP clutter, which makes reading/following the game a bit harder.
I love you. Play every mafia game with me.
"How true it is that words are but vague shadows of the volumes we mean. Little audible links they are, chaining together great inaudible feelings and purposes."

"Nobody wants to be in your sig." ~Emilrose
Sui_Generis
Posts: 4,650
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/21/2017 7:11:35 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 7/21/2017 5:38:55 AM, bsh1 wrote:
That's a weird choice of words for a townie. Townies don't often refer to town as their team, at least not in the same way that mafia talk about the scum team. Who has ever head of the "town team?"
LM and I have used the language a lot the last week or two talking about Forever in terms of her trolling hurting whatever team she's on. So she's probably still thinking in the same terms, of one's motivation in the game potentially hurting whatever team/faction/side they're playing for.
"How true it is that words are but vague shadows of the volumes we mean. Little audible links they are, chaining together great inaudible feelings and purposes."

"Nobody wants to be in your sig." ~Emilrose