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Clue Mafia - Day Phase 2

Danielle
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8/5/2017 2:51:05 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Mod Notes
- bsh1 is replacing Anoid
- Wylted 2 is replacing Forever
- It takes 6 votes to carry out a lynch.

Dead Players

Wylted 1: You are a 3-shot Justice. Each night, you may submit the names of two players, and find out if they are on the same or opposite team. You cannot self target. You win with the town.

Living Players

01 warren
02 Chaos
03 Sui
04 TUF
06 Udel
07 SeventhProfessor
08 Magic/FT
09 bsh1 (Anoid)
10 Wylted 2 (Forever)
11 Lucky
Danielle
Posts: 26,599
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8/5/2017 3:06:56 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
* EDIT *

Wylted 1: You are a 3-shot Justice. On three night phases of your choice, you may submit the names of two players, and find out if they are on the same or opposite team. You cannot self target. You win with the town.
warren42
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8/5/2017 3:20:17 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/5/2017 3:06:56 PM, Danielle wrote:
* EDIT *

Wylted 1: You are a 3-shot Justice. On three night phases of your choice, you may submit the names of two players, and find out if they are on the same or opposite team. You cannot self target. You win with the town.

Was he given the original or edited version?
Danielle
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8/5/2017 3:21:03 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/5/2017 3:20:17 PM, warren42 wrote:
Was he given the original or edited version?

He was given the original (which I accidentally just c/p) but then I clarified the edit for him, like I did here.
warren42
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8/5/2017 3:22:16 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/5/2017 3:21:03 PM, Danielle wrote:
At 8/5/2017 3:20:17 PM, warren42 wrote:
Was he given the original or edited version?

He was given the original (which I accidentally just c/p) but then I clarified the edit for him, like I did here.

Ok
warren42
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8/5/2017 3:59:13 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Ok so here are my thoughts on NP:

Bsh replacing in: I hoped Anoid would get replaced. I have a slightly FOS on him since what he did could've been lurking, but I doubt it. Pretty much null.

Wylted 2 replacing in: Surprised Forever replaced out... anyone have any idea as to why?

Wylted 1 dying: I feel like it was a random NK. I guess scum could've picked up on him having a PR, but I don't think there was anything that stuck out (though if they believe it's 3 vanilla and 2 claimed, POE means most people have PRs). The other possibility is someone making a bad attempt to frame Lucky, since Lucky said he'd want to get rid of Wylted.
TUF
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8/5/2017 4:05:44 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
It is a shame we lost wylted's role, that seems very powerful. He is essentially a more balanced cop. Interesting role indeed. Why would mafia target wylted, I don't particularly remember him doing anything outstanding in the last day phase to make him a target? It's interesting indeed.

Obviously bsh1 will be an active replacement for anoid, so I think we can look away from his slot atm.

Does anyone recognize the character in the picture Danielle posted? I thought I had recognized him, but couldn't recall where from. I used Tineye's website to do a reverse crawl of the image for context, and was brought to this wiki page: http://villains.wikia.com...

Percival C. McLeach. Apparently he is the main villain from the rescuers down under, and a pretty sadistic one at that according to the wiki, as he is willing to kill children. I only vaguely remember the movie, so I can't really give more than that for the hint. This obviously seems to be a hint about the mafia, to me. If nothing jumps out at anyone immediately, I may just re-watch the movie during downtime for further hints as to what this entails.
TUF
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8/5/2017 4:13:21 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/5/2017 3:59:13 PM, warren42 wrote:
Ok so here are my thoughts on NP:

Bsh replacing in: I hoped Anoid would get replaced. I have a slightly FOS on him since what he did could've been lurking, but I doubt it. Pretty much null.

I generally don't feel too confident about lurking reads. It isn't a common strategy for mafia to use, particularly because townies tend to want to lynch inactives for lurking. Psychologically mafia probably are going to post more to fly under the radar and avoid suspicion based on lurking. The lurking I have seen as a mod, is maybe a mafia member will post to their buddies in their pm's but won't post in the day phase except intermittently, but generally they are still posting. Anoid as a noob, I really don't see a lot of benefit for him to be risking his life (he was almost the lynch target last DP) just to lurk.

Wylted 2 replacing in: Surprised Forever replaced out... anyone have any idea as to why?

Danielle doesn't particularly like forever. Also she isn't the most contributory player in the game. She had forever in to fill, but now that we have dead townies, I figure they make better slots than forever did.

Wylted 1 dying: I feel like it was a random NK. I guess scum could've picked up on him having a PR, but I don't think there was anything that stuck out (though if they believe it's 3 vanilla and 2 claimed, POE means most people have PRs). The other possibility is someone making a bad attempt to frame Lucky, since Lucky said he'd want to get rid of Wylted.

I imagine there is a skilled player on the mafia, based on this night kill. I am trying to churn reasons why he might have been killed. Maybe they thought he was playing poorly and pretending to be drunk on purpose because he potentially had a power role and was trying to seem like he wasn't a threat. That or they were just trying to cause confusion. Or avoid potential watchers or trackers by hitting someone unlikely. Either way, it doesn't look random. I think it was a calculated move. My first thoughts go towards FT/LM, or lucky maybe being mafia.
TUF
Posts: 23,816
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8/5/2017 4:17:24 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Dead:

Wylted (1)- 3x Justice- Town

Unclaimed:

Warren42
Chaos
Sui_Generis
TUF
Udel2
SeventhProfessor
Magic/FourTrouble
Bsh1 (Anoid)

Claimed:

Wylted2 (Forever23)- Vanilla- DP1, Post 18
Lucky_Luciano- DP1, Post 248

Clues:

1st clue, Dp1, post 106: http://imgur.com...
2nd clue, DP2, post 2: http://imgur.com...
Chaos88
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8/5/2017 4:18:22 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/5/2017 4:05:44 PM, TUF wrote:
It is a shame we lost wylted's role, that seems very powerful. He is essentially a more balanced cop. Interesting role indeed. Why would mafia target wylted, I don't particularly remember him doing anything outstanding in the last day phase to make him a target? It's interesting indeed.

Obviously bsh1 will be an active replacement for anoid, so I think we can look away from his slot atm.

Does anyone recognize the character in the picture Danielle posted? I thought I had recognized him, but couldn't recall where from. I used Tineye's website to do a reverse crawl of the image for context, and was brought to this wiki page: http://villains.wikia.com...

Percival C. McLeach. Apparently he is the main villain from the rescuers down under, and a pretty sadistic one at that according to the wiki, as he is willing to kill children. I only vaguely remember the movie, so I can't really give more than that for the hint. This obviously seems to be a hint about the mafia, to me. If nothing jumps out at anyone immediately, I may just re-watch the movie during downtime for further hints as to what this entails.

Wylted was likely NK'd due to role PoE, liklihood of not being watched/protected, and being town read by many players. There is the further WIFOM potential of his replacing in.

I think the clue is just that the mafia is laughing at the game so far. We deprived ourselves of information by not lynching, lost our cop, and lost a player who was largely town read - oh, and we lost DP control. I'd be laughing too.

The character I recognized, and the only thing that may be relatable to the game is that he is a poacher, and I believe a loner with a pet lizard(i.e. two mafia). I'm not concerned about the clue. I'm most concerned about the hydra and Warren, and the inactives (Anoid and Forever). I'm cliniging to you, Sui, and Udel. Lucky is a wild card who I haven't really read his contributions, and 7th I'll put as slight town (as this is no time for a policy lynch)
Danielle
Posts: 26,599
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8/5/2017 4:33:25 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Rainy mornings before afternoon plans call for repeats of The Sopranos.

But now it's time for my afternoon plans. Attempt to update the vote count as needed, please :)
Chaos88
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8/5/2017 4:33:35 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/5/2017 4:24:28 PM, warren42 wrote:
At 8/5/2017 4:18:22 PM, Chaos88 wrote:

Why are you concerned about Forever/Wylted 2?

Why not?
I have town reads, it ain't them. There was little to analyze. It seemed similar to Forever's last game, and what activity there was seemed town. However, being replaced is troubling for me, and could have driven the NK. For example, assume two mafia, and Forever was one. She'd be on a tight leash to not mess up (which could make her not troll and, thus, not have fun, so she bailed by choice - as town this is possible too). However, assume FT is scum. Who would he want to replace as mafia? Not likely me or Lucky, and Wylted would be a good choice. Conversely, assume Forever is scum and FT is town, I could see FT not being NK'd to avoid replacing into the mafia due to some players' perception of not playing as scum.

It would be nice to know the circumstances of the replacement. If Dani forced her out, that is one thing, it she asked to be replaced out, that is potentially another. It's enough to force a reconsideration of my read at this time.

Why are you so certain she is town? Because she claimed vanilla? Big deal, it's a common fake claim for mafia, especially godfather (although I doubt there is one in this game).
TUF
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8/5/2017 4:40:54 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/5/2017 4:18:22 PM, Chaos88 wrote:
Wylted was likely NK'd due to role PoE, liklihood of not being watched/protected, and being town read by many players.

I agree that is likely a possibility.

There is the further WIFOM potential of his replacing in.

Also agreed. I feel like mafia might complain if the person they killed replaced back in if they killed that person just because they viewed them as a threat. Whether Danielle would care about their complaints is another story. It's all speculation.

I think the clue is just that the mafia is laughing at the game so far. We deprived ourselves of information by not lynching, lost our cop, and lost a player who was largely town read - oh, and we lost DP control. I'd be laughing too.

I would agree that your theory is a possibility, however Danielle previously said that these clues were all pre-made. So this clue definitely has some relevance to the workings of a mafia role or balance set up.

The character I recognized, and the only thing that may be relatable to the game is that he is a poacher, and I believe a loner with a pet lizard(i.e. two mafia). I'm not concerned about the clue.

I think the clue is worth discussing, but obviously nothing to stress too much about.

I'm most concerned about the hydra and Warren, and the inactives (Anoid and Forever).

I wouldn't worry so much about the inactives, as they were replaced with individuals I am sure will be active based on prior games.
Chaos88
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8/5/2017 4:42:26 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/3/2017 2:24:41 PM, Danielle wrote:
Vote Count

Lucky (Forever) -- 1/6 votes
Seventh (Chaos, Udel) -- 2/6 votes
Anoid (TUF, Lucky, Seventh) -- 3/6 votes
Hydra (Seventh, Wylted) -- 2/6 votes

Not voting: Anoid, Magic, warren

The day phase has ended. No more talking.
Night actions due by tomorrow - Friday, August 4 at 10:15 am EST unless otherwise noted.

This was the vote count at the end of the DP. The fact that no wagon had more than half of the necessary votes is annoying. What's worse is that three players did not vote. SOP suggests that with odd number of players town lynches. Anoid is tough to blame, since he didn't post and was replaced (perhaps he asked). However, Warren and LM were both active, both ought to know better, and both were aware of the DP's ending.

I can see mafia not wanting to tip a wagon to rush a lynch on a player, especially if that player is scum. I can also see mafia wanting to prevent a lynch from occurring to save them another day. I think the three players who didn't vote should be the focus today.

But, do what you want. I'll probably be voting with my town reads.
TUF
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8/5/2017 4:44:18 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
I've got to edit some photos and write cutlines for an article, I will be busy over the next hour or so. I will attempt to provide further analysis and reads a bit later, as well as analyze the later half of DP1 in which I wasn't active.
Chaos88
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8/5/2017 4:46:07 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/5/2017 4:40:54 PM, TUF wrote:

I think the clue is worth discussing, but obviously nothing to stress too much about.
At 7/10/2017 1:17:47 PM, Danielle wrote:
Also, I'm going to change the disclaimer that all clues are pre-determined. Scratch that.

It could mean something. It could not. Either way, the clues shouldn't hinge on analyzing them, unlike the previous game. It ought to be more for fun, the necessity.

I'm most concerned about the hydra and Warren, and the inactives (Anoid and Forever).

I wouldn't worry so much about the inactives, as they were replaced with individuals I am sure will be active based on prior games.

They're not town read by me, so I worry ;)
TUF
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8/5/2017 4:54:26 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/5/2017 4:46:07 PM, Chaos88 wrote:
At 8/5/2017 4:40:54 PM, TUF wrote:

I think the clue is worth discussing, but obviously nothing to stress too much about.
At 7/10/2017 1:17:47 PM, Danielle wrote:
Also, I'm going to change the disclaimer that all clues are pre-determined. Scratch that.

It could mean something. It could not. Either way, the clues shouldn't hinge on analyzing them, unlike the previous game. It ought to be more for fun, the necessity.

Interesting, I didn't catch her change. Thanks for that. I understand your stance on not putting much weight in clues. I agree that a ton of wieght shouldn't be put into them. But at the end of the day, it is essentially the entire purpose of this game. The theme is to analyze clues for information to help the town, and I don't see the harm in analyzing them, so long as people aren't carried away through their own conviction that these clues mean one of their theories are 100% accurate. At the very least it causes discussion and promotes activity. I see nothing wrong with looking into them.

This particular clue could be hinting at two mafia as you suggested, or maybe indicating they are laughing at us. Or maybe it is hinting that scum is someone who is extremely devious and manipulative, like FourTrouble.

I'm most concerned about the hydra and Warren, and the inactives (Anoid and Forever).

I wouldn't worry so much about the inactives, as they were replaced with individuals I am sure will be active based on prior games.

They're not town read by me, so I worry ;)

You specifically said you are concerned about inactives. What reason is their to be concerned if it is likely they will no longer be inactive? That takes away any reason to further be worried about them. I never suggested to should town read them mate.
LikeMagic
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8/5/2017 5:15:53 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/5/2017 3:59:13 PM, warren42 wrote:
Ok so here are my thoughts on NP:

Bsh replacing in: I hoped Anoid would get replaced. I have a slightly FOS on him since what he did could've been lurking, but I doubt it. Pretty much null.

I doubt it was lurking. Lurking would be an intentional strategic act, suggesting no need for a replacement.


Wylted 2 replacing in: Surprised Forever replaced out... anyone have any idea as to why?

Probably just forever and danielle.

Wylted 1 dying: I feel like it was a random NK. I guess scum could've picked up on him having a PR, but I don't think there was anything that stuck out (though if they believe it's 3 vanilla and 2 claimed, POE means most people have PRs). The other possibility is someone making a bad attempt to frame Lucky, since Lucky said he'd want to get rid of Wylted.

I don't see why you'd assume it was random. Scum may have had limited information to strategically NK, but it's still likely strategic.
LikeMagic
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8/5/2017 5:18:39 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/5/2017 4:05:44 PM, TUF wrote:
It is a shame we lost wylted's role, that seems very powerful. He is essentially a more balanced cop. Interesting role indeed. Why would mafia target wylted, I don't particularly remember him doing anything outstanding in the last day phase to make him a target? It's interesting indeed.

Obviously bsh1 will be an active replacement for anoid, so I think we can look away from his slot atm.

Does anyone recognize the character in the picture Danielle posted? I thought I had recognized him, but couldn't recall where from. I used Tineye's website to do a reverse crawl of the image for context, and was brought to this wiki page: http://villains.wikia.com...

Percival C. McLeach. Apparently he is the main villain from the rescuers down under, and a pretty sadistic one at that according to the wiki, as he is willing to kill children. I only vaguely remember the movie, so I can't really give more than that for the hint. This obviously seems to be a hint about the mafia, to me. If nothing jumps out at anyone immediately, I may just re-watch the movie during downtime for further hints as to what this entails.

Could mean mafia has some significant power role(s). I could see that being the case.
Chaos88
Posts: 4,097
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8/5/2017 5:20:15 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/5/2017 4:54:26 PM, TUF wrote:

I wouldn't worry so much about the inactives, as they were replaced with individuals I am sure will be active based on prior games.

They're not town read by me, so I worry ;)

You specifically said you are concerned about inactives. What reason is their to be concerned if it is likely they will no longer be inactive? That takes away any reason to further be worried about them. I never suggested to should town read them mate.

Inactivity is rarely a scum tell. However, Anoid did not post. He has no behavior to be analyzed. That is concerning in the sense that a read should be established on him. Similarly with 7th and Forever.

I don't like having null reads, and since they have given us effectively nothing to analyze, they should be top priority for town to get a feel for these slots. After all, it only 30% of the player pool.....

I never inferred you thought they were town, nor that I should town read them. I'm saying they should be concerning since there is no (or little) reason to read them in any way, and that is concerning, especially given our current situation (i.e. no real information, loss of control of DP, potential for (although it is unknown) for only having one mislynch available)
warren42
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8/5/2017 5:20:29 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/5/2017 4:33:35 PM, Chaos88 wrote:
At 8/5/2017 4:24:28 PM, warren42 wrote:
At 8/5/2017 4:18:22 PM, Chaos88 wrote:

Why are you concerned about Forever/Wylted 2?

Why not?
I have town reads, it ain't them. There was little to analyze. It seemed similar to Forever's last game, and what activity there was seemed town. However, being replaced is troubling for me, and could have driven the NK. For example, assume two mafia, and Forever was one. She'd be on a tight leash to not mess up (which could make her not troll and, thus, not have fun, so she bailed by choice - as town this is possible too). However, assume FT is scum. Who would he want to replace as mafia? Not likely me or Lucky, and Wylted would be a good choice. Conversely, assume Forever is scum and FT is town, I could see FT not being NK'd to avoid replacing into the mafia due to some players' perception of not playing as scum.

It would be nice to know the circumstances of the replacement. If Dani forced her out, that is one thing, it she asked to be replaced out, that is potentially another. It's enough to force a reconsideration of my read at this time.

Why are you so certain she is town? Because she claimed vanilla? Big deal, it's a common fake claim for mafia, especially godfather (although I doubt there is one in this game).

As town there's no need to lie. As scum, assuming she wasn't with Anoid and only Anoid, I think other players' perception of her play would make them unlikely to allow her to take one of the safest claims in the game.

I'm not certain, but still have her (Wylted2) as my top TR
warren42
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8/5/2017 5:23:27 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/5/2017 4:42:26 PM, Chaos88 wrote:
At 8/3/2017 2:24:41 PM, Danielle wrote:
Vote Count

Lucky (Forever) -- 1/6 votes
Seventh (Chaos, Udel) -- 2/6 votes
Anoid (TUF, Lucky, Seventh) -- 3/6 votes
Hydra (Seventh, Wylted) -- 2/6 votes

Not voting: Anoid, Magic, warren

The day phase has ended. No more talking.
Night actions due by tomorrow - Friday, August 4 at 10:15 am EST unless otherwise noted.


This was the vote count at the end of the DP. The fact that no wagon had more than half of the necessary votes is annoying. What's worse is that three players did not vote. SOP suggests that with odd number of players town lynches. Anoid is tough to blame, since he didn't post and was replaced (perhaps he asked). However, Warren and LM were both active, both ought to know better, and both were aware of the DP's ending.

We were both on at DPs' end and I didn't want to lynch Anoid (and I was the one who got the pressure going on him), they didn't want to lynch 7th. So there wasn't room for a lynch.

I can see mafia not wanting to tip a wagon to rush a lynch on a player, especially if that player is scum. I can also see mafia wanting to prevent a lynch from occurring to save them another day. I think the three players who didn't vote should be the focus today.

But, do what you want. I'll probably be voting with my town reads.
Chaos88
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8/5/2017 5:23:55 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/5/2017 5:20:29 PM, warren42 wrote:

As town there's no need to lie. As scum, assuming she wasn't with Anoid and only Anoid, I think other players' perception of her play would make them unlikely to allow her to take one of the safest claims in the game.

I'm not certain, but still have her (Wylted2) as my top TR

I don't understand this. Why are you suggesting her claim of vanilla was safe and would not be allowed by her teammates? Secondly, why are you assuming she would be controlled by the whims of teammates, let alone assuming it was even discussed?

The fact you call this a safe claim is an odd choice of words, and makes me think it is some inside knowledge.
warren42
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8/5/2017 5:27:49 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/5/2017 5:23:55 PM, Chaos88 wrote:
At 8/5/2017 5:20:29 PM, warren42 wrote:

As town there's no need to lie. As scum, assuming she wasn't with Anoid and only Anoid, I think other players' perception of her play would make them unlikely to allow her to take one of the safest claims in the game.

I'm not certain, but still have her (Wylted2) as my top TR

I don't understand this. Why are you suggesting her claim of vanilla was safe and would not be allowed by her teammates?

Vanilla is the safest claim Mafia ever has.

Secondly, why are you assuming she would be controlled by the whims of teammates, let alone assuming it was even discussed?

This is actually a good point. She's irrational and impulsive.

The fact you call this a safe claim is an odd choice of words, and makes me think it is some inside knowledge.

I didn't call it a safe claim. As you can see above, I called it "one of the safest claims in the game." Don't put words in my mouth.
Chaos88
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8/5/2017 5:30:11 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/5/2017 5:27:49 PM, warren42 wrote:

I didn't call it a safe claim. As you can see above, I called it "one of the safest claims in the game." Don't put words in my mouth.

If it is one of the safest claims, and she was pressured early, then why is it so impossible that she is scum? That is what I don't understand. Why do you town read her, because the only reason is her claim, which you admit is safe?
TUF
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8/5/2017 5:31:32 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/5/2017 5:20:15 PM, Chaos88 wrote:
At 8/5/2017 4:54:26 PM, TUF wrote:

I wouldn't worry so much about the inactives, as they were replaced with individuals I am sure will be active based on prior games.

They're not town read by me, so I worry ;)

You specifically said you are concerned about inactives. What reason is their to be concerned if it is likely they will no longer be inactive? That takes away any reason to further be worried about them. I never suggested to should town read them mate.

Inactivity is rarely a scum tell. However, Anoid did not post. He has no behavior to be analyzed. That is concerning in the sense that a read should be established on him. Similarly with 7th and Forever.

I don't like having null reads, and since they have given us effectively nothing to analyze, they should be top priority for town to get a feel for these slots. After all, it only 30% of the player pool.....

I never inferred you thought they were town, nor that I should town read them. I'm saying they should be concerning since there is no (or little) reason to read them in any way, and that is concerning, especially given our current situation (i.e. no real information, loss of control of DP, potential for (although it is unknown) for only having one mislynch available)

Okay, I'll take this response and agree with it.