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Clue Mafia - Day Phase 4

Danielle
Posts: 26,599
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8/10/2017 4:38:57 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Dead Players

Wylted 1: 3x Justice - town
Udel: 2x Hunter - Mafia
Anoid/bsh1: Jailkeeper - Town
SeventhProfessor: Vanilla - Town

Chaos88: You are a 2-shot Politician. Two nights per game, you may choose to steal someone's vote. You may (a) make them vote-less the following day phase, or (b) put their vote on another player for the following day phase. You would have to choose their target that same night. You win with the town.

warren: You are a Yakuza. On any night phase of your choice, you may sacrifice your life to recruit another player into the mafia.

Sui_Generis: You are a 3-shot Tracker. On three night phases of your choice, you may choose to target another player and see whom they visit during the night phase. You win with the town.

Living Players

01 TUF
02 Magic/FT
03 Wylted (Forever)
04 bsh1 (Lucky)

It takes 3 votes to carry out a lynch.
Wylted
Posts: 25,970
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8/10/2017 4:45:59 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/10/2017 4:41:04 PM, Danielle wrote:
Clue #8: The 5:55 time stamp last day phase and missing number 5 did not mean anything. Sorry!

Or did it.
TUF
Posts: 23,816
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8/10/2017 4:50:44 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Oh boy, I was hoping sui wouldn't have been killed last night, that kind of messes up the plan. I targeted wylted last night, and got an investigation, not a kill. Wylted appeared innocent on the results. I targeted him because he was the only other person besides chaps who offered himself to be targetted, and plus he seemed high on people's suspicions list last day phase, mine included.

So it looks like we were wrong, and that their were just 2 mafia, since the mafia had a yakuza. POE is between Lucky and FT/LM. I town read FT/LM but the Yakuza changes that. FT/LM seems like too obvious of a choice though at the same time. They could have recruited bsh1 (lucky) to throw us off.

No one should vote yet obviously til we figure this stuff out. Looks like we also have the option to no lynch this phase and wait til LYLO. I'll wait for further results before any more analysis.
FourTrouble
Posts: 16,245
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8/10/2017 4:52:36 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Cool, let's roll the dice and hope we win. Fun stuff.
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FourTrouble
Posts: 16,245
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8/10/2017 4:53:16 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At least they couldn't recruit Khaos - that would have been the game probably.
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LikeMagic
Posts: 2,190
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8/10/2017 4:56:10 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/10/2017 4:52:36 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
Cool, let's roll the dice and hope we win. Fun stuff.

I don't understand. Does that mean there's a new mafia player that wasn't before? If so how the hell do we figure that out?
TUF
Posts: 23,816
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8/10/2017 4:58:05 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Dead:

Wylted (1)- 3x Justice- Town (killed np1)
Udel- 2x Hunter- Mafia (lynched dp1)
bsh1(anoid)- Jailkeeper- Town (killed dp1 by hunter)
SeventhProfessor- Vanilla- Town (killed np2)
Sui_Generis- 3x Tracker- Town (killed np3)
Warren- Yakuza- Mafia (died Np3 assumedly recruiting someone)
Chaos- 2x Double Voter- Town- (lynched dp3)

Claimed:


Wylted2 (Forever23)- Vanilla- DP1, Post 18
Bsh1(2) (Lucky_Luciano)- Vanilla- DP1, Post 248
TUF-x Shot Cop/Vig 50%-DP3, Post 50
LikeMagic/FourTrouble- Inventor- DP3, Post 299

Confirmed Clues:

1st clue, Dp1, post 106: http://imgur.com...
2nd clue, DP2, post 2: http://imgur.com...
3rd clue, Dp3, post 11: http://www.debate.org...
4th clue, Dp4, post 2: http://www.debate.org...

Other Info:

SeventhProfessor was given Binoculars NP1, in which he watched Wylted being visited by Udel. (Post 57, Page 2, DP2)
Sui tracked Udel NP1, and saw him visiting both wylted and bsh1. Sui, tracked lucky to no one NP2.
TUF on NP1 targeted bsh1, and was given innocent. He forfeits NP2. NP3 targeted Wylted, got innocent.
Danielle on post 11, DP3, says including this there are 6 total clues. On post 2 DP4, says there are 8 total.

All potential clues:

https://docs.google.com...
TUF
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8/10/2017 4:59:24 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/10/2017 4:52:36 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
Cool, let's roll the dice and hope we win. Fun stuff.

Keep in mind, we could no lynch today, and wait to roll the dice tomorrow. Narrows down odds a bit.
FourTrouble
Posts: 16,245
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8/10/2017 4:59:57 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/10/2017 4:56:10 PM, LikeMagic wrote:
At 8/10/2017 4:52:36 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
Cool, let's roll the dice and hope we win. Fun stuff.

I don't understand. Does that mean there's a new mafia player that wasn't before? If so how the hell do we figure that out?

Exactly. These sorts of recruiting roles, especially so late in the game, are quasi bastard imo
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FourTrouble
Posts: 16,245
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8/10/2017 5:00:57 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
I don't think we should no lynch today. In general, towns tend to do better when they lynch at MYLO instead of LYLO. There's a mathematical explanation for this that I've seen somewhere, but it comes down to the strength of 3 town vs 1 scum, as opposed to 2 town vs 1 scum. The scum has less influence in the former.
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Wylted
Posts: 25,970
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8/10/2017 5:01:43 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/10/2017 4:56:10 PM, LikeMagic wrote:
At 8/10/2017 4:52:36 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
Cool, let's roll the dice and hope we win. Fun stuff.

I don't understand. Does that mean there's a new mafia player that wasn't before? If so how the hell do we figure that out?

We figure out what warren's smarter pick was. Me and Tuf were on everyone's scumdar. So it is between you guys and TUF. We can also VTNL to buy us more time to figure things out.

I lean towards VTNL, giving us an extra night of results.
Wylted
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8/10/2017 5:03:09 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/10/2017 4:59:24 PM, TUF wrote:
At 8/10/2017 4:52:36 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
Cool, let's roll the dice and hope we win. Fun stuff.

Keep in mind, we could no lynch today, and wait to roll the dice tomorrow. Narrows down odds a bit.

I agree. If you are town please shoot. You have a 1/2 chance of fvcking up if mafia shoots and a 1/3 chance if not. Either way you have the best chance of winning this game vs allowing it to go to a vote.
FourTrouble
Posts: 16,245
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8/10/2017 5:03:42 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Who would Warren recruit? That's the question.

He didn't recruit us. His mindset must have been, "recruiting LM/FT is too obvious," or something like that. TUF, with the 50% vig shot, is a really strong recruit. But maybe that's too obvious too and he went for one of the vanillas. Especially with bsh1 replacing Lucky.
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FourTrouble
Posts: 16,245
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8/10/2017 5:04:51 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
There's a reason we can't no lynch.

If TUF is the recruit, he will potentially get two night kills.
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Wylted
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8/10/2017 5:05:34 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/10/2017 5:00:57 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
I don't think we should no lynch today. In general, towns tend to do better when they lynch at MYLO instead of LYLO. There's a mathematical explanation for this that I've seen somewhere, but it comes down to the strength of 3 town vs 1 scum, as opposed to 2 town vs 1 scum. The scum has less influence in the former.

We are shooting half blind. I am willing to lynch Luck and only lucky. This gives Tuf a 50% chance of winning the game assuming he does big instead of investigate.
FourTrouble
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8/10/2017 5:05:50 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Would the Yakuza go through before TUF got results?
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TUF
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8/10/2017 5:06:12 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/10/2017 4:56:10 PM, LikeMagic wrote:
At 8/10/2017 4:52:36 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
Cool, let's roll the dice and hope we win. Fun stuff.

I don't understand. Does that mean there's a new mafia player that wasn't before? If so how the hell do we figure that out?

There isn't any mechanical way to figure it out. You just have to re-evaluate all your reads and start over fresh, since everyone we are currently playing with is confirmed to have been town last day phase.

I am asking dani now if my results would take place before or after the yakuza recruit. If after, I am going to assume wylted is 100% confirmed town, as there doesn't appear to be any roles that can tamper with my results.
TUF
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8/10/2017 5:06:46 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/10/2017 5:04:51 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
There's a reason we can't no lynch.

If TUF is the recruit, he will potentially get two night kills.

I was 2x. I'm all out of shots now.
FourTrouble
Posts: 16,245
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8/10/2017 5:07:18 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/10/2017 5:06:12 PM, TUF wrote:
At 8/10/2017 4:56:10 PM, LikeMagic wrote:
At 8/10/2017 4:52:36 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
Cool, let's roll the dice and hope we win. Fun stuff.

I don't understand. Does that mean there's a new mafia player that wasn't before? If so how the hell do we figure that out?

There isn't any mechanical way to figure it out. You just have to re-evaluate all your reads and start over fresh, since everyone we are currently playing with is confirmed to have been town last day phase.

I am asking dani now if my results would take place before or after the yakuza recruit. If after, I am going to assume wylted is 100% confirmed town, as there doesn't appear to be any roles that can tamper with my results.

If after, Wylted is town. That'd be helpful to know.
If you'd like a vote on your debate, please send me a link. I'll do my best to offer a sufficient RFD in your favor.

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TUF
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8/10/2017 5:07:25 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/10/2017 5:05:50 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
Would the Yakuza go through before TUF got results?

I am waiting on Danielle to answer this now.
FourTrouble
Posts: 16,245
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8/10/2017 5:07:45 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/10/2017 5:06:46 PM, TUF wrote:
At 8/10/2017 5:04:51 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
There's a reason we can't no lynch.

If TUF is the recruit, he will potentially get two night kills.

I was 2x. I'm all out of shots now.

You didn't say this on previous DPs, to my recollection, so at this point, it's impossible to trust.
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TUF
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8/10/2017 5:08:34 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/10/2017 5:03:09 PM, Wylted wrote:
At 8/10/2017 4:59:24 PM, TUF wrote:
At 8/10/2017 4:52:36 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
Cool, let's roll the dice and hope we win. Fun stuff.

Keep in mind, we could no lynch today, and wait to roll the dice tomorrow. Narrows down odds a bit.

I agree. If you are town please shoot. You have a 1/2 chance of fvcking up if mafia shoots and a 1/3 chance if not. Either way you have the best chance of winning this game vs allowing it to go to a vote.

I was only 2x, I am now essentially a vanilla.
TUF
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8/10/2017 5:10:24 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Danielle just answered: "mafia role >> mafia NK >> townie roles"

This means that I would have gotten a guilty on wylted if he were scum. I am going to assume wylted is 100% town confirmed.
FourTrouble
Posts: 16,245
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8/10/2017 5:13:08 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Alright, Wylted is town.

That leaves Lucky and TUF.
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TUF
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8/10/2017 5:14:08 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
I honestly can't think of any reason mafia would recruit Lucky's slot except maybe to cause confusion? But WIFOM argument leads to me not thinking they would recruit LM/FT either, because they would be too obvious a target for their role utility. What would warren do?
TUF
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8/10/2017 5:15:49 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 8/10/2017 5:13:08 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
Alright, Wylted is town.

That leaves Lucky and TUF.

What did you guys do with your role last night phase? You still have a gun and a BP vest right? Why are you opposed to waiting for next day phase granted you still have role utility potential?