Should you swap?

Posted by: Kreakin

The prize is behind 1 of 3 doors. You pick door 1. Door 3 is opened to reveal no prize. You can swap doors if you like for the next round.

Vote
8 Total Votes
1

Yes. I should swap my original choice.

8 votes
2 comments
2

No. I should not swap doors.

0 votes
0 comments
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(Maximum 900 words)
TBR says2015-06-09T19:54:51.0365390-05:00
Under the standard assumptions, contestants who switch have a 2/3 chance of winning the car, while contestants who stick to their choice have only a 1/3 chance.
Kreakin says2015-06-09T19:55:58.3122488-05:00
Aww kill joy why post the answer
Kreakin says2015-06-09T19:57:13.7168828-05:00
Most people would say 50/50 as there are two doors left.
eagleoftheeast says2015-06-09T20:03:16.7618382-05:00
At first i thought when the choice was swap, it meant close all the doors and start afresh with 1/3 chance
eagleoftheeast says2015-06-09T20:04:05.6946267-05:00
I mean your questions is ambiguous because next round would imply you would close door 3 and reshuffle
Diqiucun_Cunmin says2015-06-09T20:04:39.5890571-05:00
It's just basic maths. It proves why our intuition is wrong, but if people actually sit down to do the calculations, I think far fewer people would be wrong about it.
Kreakin says2015-06-09T20:06:30.6299442-05:00
@Diqiucun_Cunmin - tell that to the approximately 10,000 readers, including nearly 1,000 with PhDs, who wrote to the magazine, most of them claiming vos Savant was wrong..
Diqiucun_Cunmin says2015-06-09T20:12:35.7102131-05:00
@Kreakin: A friend of mine posted it on Facebook a while ago, and pretty much everyone who commented got the right answer (including myself)...
Kreakin says2015-06-09T20:16:22.9441829-05:00
Internet's a great resource. Save's people actually having to try and work it out.

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